My D1 Preseason Team Rankings

[aarons23]

In a few weeks you'll be calling them the favorite.

Who do they have that you feel will advance onto state?

[determined]

I'd say there are 7 or 8

[Pheasant 1984]

Clc, my son is a senior at Menomonie and they have had a wrestler at every weight for the last 3 years too!

[CLC FAN]

You are right.  I think my criteria may have been 4 years straight

[aarons23]

I'd say there are 7 or 8

Who?  Which 7 or 8

[boowrestle]

CLC,my son is a senior at Baraboo and we have had full lineup all of his time there and will again trhis yr so that will make 4yrs in a row for sure but pretty sure it is more than that.

[CLC FAN]

Track might have it wrong, but it says 13 at regionals in 2012 for Baraboo.


http://www.trackwrestling.com/predefinedtournaments/VerifyPassword.jsp?tournamentId=35890009

[CLC FAN]

By the way, 12 seems a low number of D1 teams that have been full for the last four years.  If you think you know a team that fits this bill, please verify it on track and post it here.

[CLC FAN]

Geez... after some research, I'm down to only 10 D1 schools that have been full the last 4 years:

Bay Port
Holmen
Hudson
Kaukauna
Menomonee Falls
Merrill
Milton
Mukwonago
Stoughton
West Bend West

[DarkKnight]

I still have a problem with CLC Fan's assessment that the Whitnall/Greendale co-op has a 7% chance of winning its Regional (with Mukwonago at 63% and West Allis Central at 22%).
Whitdale is the team to watch in southeast Wisconsin- if not the team to beat!


Care to change your prediction?

So.  Two "Mea culpa"s and a "WTH?"

I did incorrectly combine Whitnall and Greendale.  I'm not even sure what method I used originally or if I missed the co-op completely, but what I've done now is take the better of each school's returning wrestler at each weight class as my returning starter for Whitdale.  That gives them 12 returning starters from last year's regional who scored a total of 186 points at regionals.  I also made a computational error regarding Mukwonago's points returning.  I had their 6 returning starters bringing back 105 regional points, when in reality they bring back 99 (or 98 - what do you do with a UC deduction?). 

My WTH is - why does the WIAA list only 7 teams in this regional?  Division 1 is supposed to be a set-in-stone 128 teams, and it looks like the WIAA only has 127 teams assigned to D1 regionals?!?   From the Tournament Assignments PDF:  "Regional II West Allis Central:  Greenfield, Mukwonago, Muskego, Waterford, West Allis Central, West Allis Nathan Hale, Whitnall-Greendale" 

So, with the caveat that there should - will? - may? be another team besides the 7 listed in this regional, I ran the simulations again.  300 times.  The results:

Mukwonago   (52%) 
West Allis Central  (21%)
Whitdale   (17%)
Muskego  (5%)
Waterford (3%)
West Allis Hale (2%)
Greefield  (<1%)

With the co -op, it went down one.... either they didn't that into consideration, Or they couldn't rationalize moving anyone up to D1 from D2.

[Ghetto]

Greendale and Whitnall were listed separately for a long time, maybe up until a month ago. Maybe they just didn't want to change it and upset the apple cart.

[MarkK]

Geez... after some research, I'm down to only 10 D1 schools that have been full the last 4 years:

Bay Port
Holmen
Hudson
Kaukauna
Menomonee Falls
Merrill
Milton
Mukwonago
Stoughton
West Bend West

How exaustive was that?  Those are dismal numbers.  I wonder how div 2 and 3 have been?

[CLC FAN]

How exaustive was that?  Those are dismal numbers.  I wonder how div 2 and 3 have been?

For D1, I took every team that was full last year and backed them up to 2013 - were they still full?  If yes, I backed them up to 2012, then backed them up to 2011.


For D2, there are 10 teams who fit the bill:

Amery
Ellsworth
Freedom
Lodi
Luxemburg-Casco
Oconto Falls
Pewaukee (who I guess is now D1)
Tomahawk
Two Rivers
Wittenberg-Birnamwood

Anybody else notice a Sectional B slant to those numbers???  Also, this was my summer research - which might be suspect.  If you have a team you think qualifies, please verify it on trackwrestling and post it here.



For D3 only 7 teams have been full the last 4 years:

Aquinas
Bonduel
Boyceville
Clear Lake
Oostburg (D2 now though)
Random Lake
Spring Valley/Elmwood

For those of you wondering about Coleman - team state champ 3 of the last 4 years - they had 13 at regionals in 2011.

[CLC FAN]

And yes MarkK, those are dismal numbers - especially at D1.  If you want this thread to get hijacked just mention the idea that just maybe having 14 non-interchangeable starters in a high school sport is too many!

[DarkKnight]

How exaustive was that?  Those are dismal numbers.  I wonder how div 2 and 3 have been?

For D1, I took every team that was full last year and backed them up to 2013 - were they still full?  If yes, I backed them up to 2012, then backed them up to 2011.


For D2, there are 10 teams who fit the bill:

Amery
Ellsworth
Freedom
Lodi
Luxemburg-Casco
Oconto Falls
Pewaukee (who I guess is now D1)
Tomahawk
Two Rivers
Wittenberg-Birnamwood

Anybody else notice a Sectional B slant to those numbers???  Also, this was my summer research - which might be suspect.  If you have a team you think qualifies, please verify it on trackwrestling and post it here.



For D3 only 7 teams have been full the last 4 years:

Aquinas
Bonduel
Boyceville
Clear Lake
Oostburg (D2 now though)
Random Lake
Spring Valley/Elmwood

For those of you wondering about Coleman - team state champ 3 of the last 4 years - they had 13 at regionals in 2011.

Coleman still had a full team, i believe someone was sick or injured.  i dont think your research takes this into account, i'm sure there are more teams that have been full most of the past 4 + years. But you do good research