My D1 Preseason Team Rankings

[Jim Rockford]

Maggie, your bold move of picking Milton to win it all got me going.  Rather than just say "you're wrong" I figured I'd throw my opinion out there and get some chatter going about the upcoming season.  Last year I predicited the following in the preseason: 1.) Kaukauna 2.) Bay Port 3.) Merrill 4.) Sauk Prairie 5.) Holmen.  If you don't believe me you can click on this link http://wiwrestling.info/index.php?topic=39089.0 and it will take you back in time to last fall.

With that being said, I feel fairly confident in my method of evaluating teams in the preseason.  Obviously we don't have skin fold info yet and we aren't sure if anyone is going to quit or get hurt, so you can only be so accurate.  I'm hoping CLC will weigh in with his moneyball analytics and for people who know about incoming freshman to speak up, I don't follow youth wrestling close enough to know who is in what grade.  I know that as a Coach I should probably just keep my mouth shut, but I'm going to channel my inner Askren and get the fans into it.  If you don't like my rankings, make your own and sign your name to it.  Here, we, go.........

1.) Kaukauna:  The Ghosts own the D1 Team State belt, return a pile of talent and therefore start the season #1.  Kaukauna loses some very good seniors from last year's state championship team, but seeing their JV team win a few varsity tournaments last season tells me that the cupboards are stocked with fox valley talent that will be able to fill out the lineup nicely.  They appear to be loaded in the light and middleweights with two Leon boys, two (possibly three - not sure if Zach will be a Freshman?) Lee boys, VanHandel, Frassetto, VandenHeuvel, Kloehn, and Shuhoski.  It will be interesting to see how their young upper weights develop, if any of the lightweights can get to 106 again this year, how they will sort out the log jam of talented wrestlers in the light and middleweights, and if they can make it two straight team state titles.

2.) Bay Port:  While I believe any of the teams ranked 2-7 could make the argument that they should be ranked #2, Bay Port gets the nod because of their state runner up finish last year, the number of quality wrestlers returning, and the fact that they have shown that their program has the ability to reload after being hit by significant losses to graduation.  The Pirates lose Chase Farr from the lightweights, but return the majority of their starters from 106-152.  Returning state qualifiers Andres (182) and VanDeWalle (285) will lead the upper weights along with VanEnkenvort (220) and another Kitslaar kid who had some wins in Fargo at 170.  Rumor has it that Alec Ingold, who accepted a football scholarship to Northern Illinois, will not be wrestling this season due to conditions of the scholarship.  Obviously Ingold is a very talented athlete and a great wrestler.  if he is in the mix he is the odds on favorite to win it all at 195 and is a major hammer in the Bay Port lineup.  Seeing how everything shakes out with him is possibly the biggest thing to keep an eye on early in the season and will no doubt impact how things end up in February & March.   

3.) Menomonie:  Here is the hard part - ranking your own team.  As I write this I am knocking on wood, throwing salt over my left shoulder and praying the rosary like my late Grandma Peissig did as she watched her grandsons compete in the state wrestling tournament as to not jinx our season.  I bring us in at #3 due to the way we finished last season and the talent that we bring back.  State placewinners Logan Schlough and Mason Stokke lead the way along with state qualifier Joe Ford. Josh Waddell, Hayden Schlough and Dylan Kadlec were wrestlers who spent most of the season ranked but missed out on the state tournament.  We have some more high quality wrestlers ready to roll, but I'm not quite dumb enough to give away all of my secrets voluntarily!   

4.) Stoughton: Zach Hasselberger, Colin Kraus and Joe Nelson give the Vikings 3 potential individual state champions and make them a legitimate contender for a team state title.  Complimenting the aforementioned studs in the lineup are Sectional placewinners Klein, Jenny, Model, Helland, and Benton.  I'm not sure if middle school standouts Dow and Spilde will be freshman this season, but if they are I would guess that they will be capable of stepping in and winning matches right away.  It looks like the rivalry between Milton and Stoughton will remain intense this year as they will battle with Sauk Prairie for the Badger Conference championship and most likely duke it out for the Team Sectional E title. I think they are as good as anybody from 106-152, but if there are too many holes in the upper weights it will eventually sink the Vikings ship.

5.) Milton: 5 returning state qualifiers lead the way for Milton this season as they look to be one of the top teams in the state.  The Shea brothers, Chesmore, Whitehead and Wileman all made it to the Kohl Center last February.  They will be joined by Gohlke, Pitzner, and McCarthy who also performed well in 2013-2014.   Overall, Milton was a very young team last season and experienced a great deal of success, if that youth matured over the offseason they will be a force to be reckoned with this year.

6.) Burlington: The Demons peaked at the right time last season and made a run to the team state semifinals before falling to eventual champion Kaukauna.  Josh Bird and Ben Hornickle give Burlington two contenders for individual state titles, while Shenkenberg, Iverson, and Teidt return after wrestling well a year ago.  I saw there was another Bird who placed high at the youth state tournament.  I'm not sure if he will be a freshman or not, If he is I would assume that he will step in and make some noise right away.

7.) Pulaski: It looks as though Pulaski and Bay Port will once again be neck and neck for the Fox River Classic Conference and Regional title.  The Raiders have the firepower to knock off the defending team state runner up lead by Seniors Kasey Caelwarts and Hunter Micolicheck.  Micolicheck took 4th at 285 last season and is the highest returning placewinner at 285.  Caelwarts had a great regular season but did not compete in the postseason, if he is is back at full strength this year he will be a tough matchup for anyone.  Prentice, May, and VanLaanen are back after state tournament appearances a year ago.  Clark, Gille, and Rassmussen were one win away from qualifying for state.  If this lineup comes together the way it could they will be a very dangerous team.

8.) Merrill: Arnie's crew is coming off an outstanding season which ended in a narrow defeat to the hands of Bay Port in the team state semifinals.  Seniors Mason Reinhardt and Scott Arneson will both be looking to finish their careers in style.  Joining them in the lineup are Welch, Schultz and Ball all of whom seemed to come on at the end of last season.  Merrill has one of the best coaching staffs in the state and they always seem to put a tough team on the mat, but it will be difficult to replace the senior class they had last year.  Only time will tell how the Blue Jays overcome the loss of Beyer, Nicholson, Pophal, Hintze, Klug, and Schmidt.

9.) Sauk Prairie: Sauk has become a staple in the top 10 over the past two seasons with back to back team state appearances.  The Eagles were hit pretty hard by graduation, but return a solid nucleus in Eddy Smith, Drew Fjoser, Austin Powell, and Gage Neumaier.  The Badger Conference will be very competitive this year with 3 teams in my preseason top 10 doing battle for the title.  No matter how the conference race ends up, Sauk Prairie still looks to be the favorite in Sectional C and will have a great opportunity to make it 3 straight trips to the team state tournament.

10.) Hudson: The Raiders have been a strong program for quite some time and this season should be no different.  Sawyer Massie is the only returning state qualifier in the lineup, but depth is what makes Hudson a top 10 team in my opinion.  Massie will be supported by Sectional placewinners Bronson and Klabon along with Matt Koski, Mitch Fanning, Dylan Anderson and Max Gierke all of whom have a ton of varsity experience under their belts.  Look for Sophomore Isac Schindler and Freshman Jacob Anderson to break into the lineup and be in the hunt for a state tournament berth come February.  We have had some great battles with these guys the past couple years and I would expect the same this time around.  If you are looking to catch a good dual come to Menomonie on December 18th and see who will get the inside track for the Big Rivers Conference title.

Honorable Mention: Wisconsin Rapids, Menomonee Falls, Cedarburg, Elkhorn, Holmen 

Joe Nelson is not enrolled in Stoughton this year so that will be a big loss for the team

[PH]

I just wanted to say that one of the changes for this up coming season is that they are seeding the team state tournament.  That is one of the new rules in place for the 2014-15 season.  I don't have my rule changes with me, but I am pretty positive about this.  The head coaches from each qualifiying team will have a meeting at the individual state tournament to seed the teams.

[DarkKnight]

I just wanted to say that one of the changes for this up coming season is that they are seeding the team state tournament.  That is one of the new rules in place for the 2014-15 season.  I don't have my rule changes with me, but I am pretty positive about this.  The head coaches from each qualifiying team will have a meeting at the individual state tournament to seed the teams.

Will D2 and D3 also be seeded? i have heard talk about this but didnt know they were going to do it... thats pretty nice to seed it, though there will bound be dispute on who is seeded above who in the middle of the pack

[CLC FAN]

I just wanted to say that one of the changes for this up coming season is that they are seeding the team state tournament.  That is one of the new rules in place for the 2014-15 season.  I don't have my rule changes with me, but I am pretty positive about this.  The head coaches from each qualifiying team will have a meeting at the individual state tournament to seed the teams.

I do not believe that rule is in effect for this year.  Please cite your source.  The wiaa website under wrestling:rules & regulations:tournament procedures lists the preassigned order listed in this thread.

[boowrestle]

i also heard thru the grapevine that team state is going to seed the teams starting 2014/15,guess we will all have to wait and see,but please when somebody knows a definate answer please share.

[Troy Grindle]

How do you decide how many starters each team will have?  Do you just go off of how many they went to regionals with the year before?  What about teams leaving a regional, are you able to account for that also?  Pretty neat analysis.

[Grant Peissig]

Joe Nelson is not enrolled in Stoughton this year so that will be a big loss for the team

That is some big news Jimbo.  Do you know where he is enrolled?

[Ino]

I just wanted to say that one of the changes for this up coming season is that they are seeding the team state tournament.  That is one of the new rules in place for the 2014-15 season.  I don't have my rule changes with me, but I am pretty positive about this.  The head coaches from each qualifiying team will have a meeting at the individual state tournament to seed the teams.

From what I have read the WI Wrestling Coaches Association proposed several changes, but this is what the WIAA approved:

Of the number of recommendations presented in wrestling, three were passed into regulations.
Assistant referees will be used for the semifinals and finals of the State Team and Individual Tournaments beginning in 2015,
The third and fifth place matches will be run concurrently by weight class and division in the State Individual Tournament.
Retain the 3 p.m. start time for the finals session of the State Team Tournament.

[HMsDad]

Grant,
Could you tell us anything about seeding team state?

[Grant Peissig]

Grant,
Could you tell us anything about seeding team state?

All I know is basically the same as what has already been stated.  I remember last spring the WWCA brought it to the WIAA, but I lost track of it after that.  I assumed since I hadn't heard anything more about it that the WIAA shot it down.  Maybe someone who made it to the coaches/referee clinic last weekend has some more info on it?  Until I see that the team state tournament will be seeded on the WIAA website, I'm going to assume that it will remain status quo this season.

[Dale Einerson]

CLC, can you please, in your best layman's terms, tell us how percentages are generated?  Of course, I am trying to guesstimate some puts and takes on potential surprises.

#bookiewanted

Layman's terms: Let's say that I predict that Team Dale will have 10 regional starters and those starters will score 18 points each at regionals.  My baseline prediction is then that Team Dale scores 180 points at regionals.  The percentage comes into play because I am aware that the true results will likely not match my results, but will fall into a range near 180.

I have gone back and measured how much my projections tend to be off.  For D1, I am usually within 2 for regional starters and almost never more than 3.5 off.  For points/starter I am usually within 2.5 points and almost never off by more than 5 points/starter.  So I basically allow random chance to alter Team Dale's outcome.  Sometimes they have more than 10 starters, sometimes they earn more than 18 points each.  A computer generates random outcomes for Team Dale, and for each team in the regionals.  The percentages are how frequently each team won the regional in my computer-generated simulations. 

So for Kaukauna, I predict them to have 14 in their lineup and to score 19.4 pts/regional starter.  When I ran the simulations, I got total points for Kaukauna anywhere from 163 to 323, but most times (99 out of 100 in fact) they won the regional.

That makes so much sense in my head.  I hope it came out clear. 

Very much appreciated, thank you. 

And go Team Dale!  We are working on conditioning and our guys really want it more than the other guy, if we can get the weights to settle in, just get some refs to not hate on us, Team Dale will make some noise...

[wrestle03]

Grant Peissig, I read a post on the Badgers page on this site that Lee didn't cut any weight for the Super32 and weighed in at 141 and wrestled at 145.  I would imagine he is at 138.

[bigoil]

CLC, my question for you is in regards to Bay Port.  Are you counting Ingold in or out?  I'm just kind of surprised that they are that heavy of a statistical favorite over Pulaski in the Regional.

I count all of last year's starters who did not graduate, so Ingold got counted.  Including Ingold, Bay Port brings back starters who averaged 20.1 points each last year.  Pulaski's starters averaged 16.4.  Even if you remove Ingold, Bay Port still averages 19.2 pts/returning starter.  Since my prediction is for both teams to be full or very close, the 4 points extra per regional starter translates into Bay Port winning a healthy percent of the time. 

But if you subtract Ingold from Bayport you must also add Caelworts to Pulaski which both scenerios probally take points away from Bay Port and add Points to Pulaski (Caelworts points taking away possible bayport points and loss of Ingold points increases Pulaski points.)

I sure hope Ingold wrestles. I would be very disappointed if he didn't.

That FB scholarship didn't prevent him from playing Safety against Ashwaubenon for the better part of the game. Wrestle, we need dominant athletes in our sport!

[CLC FAN]

How do you decide how many starters each team will have?  Do you just go off of how many they went to regionals with the year before?  What about teams leaving a regional, are you able to account for that also?  Pretty neat analysis.

The prediction for this year's starters is based on two variables - starters last year and seniors last  year.  Starters last year is the much more important factor according to past evidence.  Also, this year I started keeping track of the "perpetually full" teams.  If a team has been full the last 3 years straight, I predict them to be full again this year (allowing some random variation as I said before).  In that case I ignore the number of seniors they had last year.  So Kaukauna (for instance) could have graduated every single regional starter - I would still predict them to be full because for the last 3 years, they have always been full. 

Your second question brings in a lot of subjectivity.  Up until this point, anyone would get the exact same predictions as I would if they did the research I did and used my "starters next year" prediction formulas.  When teams switch regionals (or worse, switch divisions) a subjective adjustment has to be made.  The adjustment is on the prediction for points/starter.  I don't have a cut-and-dried way to do this, and I don't know that creating one is feasible.  So if Team Dale goes from a D2 regional to a D1 regional, I assume it will be harder to score points - but how much harder?  That is a guess.  Often what I end up doing if a team is switching regionals within their division is leave them alone unless I know something about the teams they are either leaving behind or joining.  When teams switch divisions I usually make adjustments.

[DocWrestling]

Marty Loy Classic has added 2 new contending teams this year in Bayport and Mukwonago.  They will compete for the title with Menomonie, Sauk Prairie(defending champ), Burlington, Menomonee Falls, Hudson, Stevens Point, plus many more.  Team list is on trackwrestling.