D2 Sectionals - By The Numbers

[FoldEmUp]

This conversation was spread between a couple different topics and it's bigger than a conversation about a specific sectional.  It's systemic so I'm consolidating it here.  I did a little homework so we can take personal opinions out of the equation.  I wanted to find out what is really the case in terms of the unbalance of the D2 Sectionals.

So here are the results of my findings.  Over just the past five years, of the teams in a current D2 Sectional (so Wittenburg-Birnamwood was in the Oconto Falls Sectional but is now in D3, Wisconsin Lutheran is D1 and was in CG-B, and Sparta is D1 and was in Richland Center for example, so their results are not included), here are the totals, by sectional.

Total Medalists (1st-6th)
Oconto Falls - 122
Richland Center - 97
Amery - 87
Cedar Grove-Belgium - 67

Total Runners-Up
Oconto Falls - 28
Richland Center - 16
Amery - 11
Cedar Grove-Belgium - 8

Total State Champions
Oconto Falls - 28
Amery - 18
Richland Center - 14
Cedar Grove-Belgium - 6

Total Finalists
Oconto Falls - 56
Richland Center - 30
Amery - 29
Cedar Grove-Belgium - 14

The data is clear that the Oconto Falls Sectional is by far the strongest and Cedar Grove-Belgium is by far the weakest.  And this doesn't even tell the whole story because of kids sitting at home who could be medalists but who are behind kids in a stacked weight class at these regionals/sectionals.  And you can say "well that happens everywhere" and I'll agree with you.  But it happens much more in the tougher regionals/sectionals and the data plays that out.  If you're thinking "yeah, well if you take out teams like Sparta and Wisconsin Lutheran of course we'll have fewer" I can tell you that the absence of Wittenburg-Birnamwood decreased the number of state champs and runners up as well as medalists in the Oconto Falls Sectional to an equal if not greater extent.

This is such an easy fix too, because there are a number of "border" teams in the Oconto Falls (strongest) and Cedar Grove-Belgium sectionals (weakest) that can be flip flopped to try to bring some balance to the situation.

Oconto Falls to CG-B - Two Rivers, Wrightstown, and Valders (there are other options too like Denmark or Freedom)
CG-B to Oconto Falls - Chilton/Hilbert, Kiel, and New Holstein

This would accomplish two things.  First, it would balance out the sectionals.  Secondly, it would balance out the Valders Regional as well which is actually a greater concern.  Those six teams listed above are separated by no more than 30 miles. 

I actually think geography is a garbage argument the WIAA uses anyway because there isn't a team in the state that doesn't travel some significant distances to go to tournaments throughout the season, much further than they'd travel to go to their sectional.  I guarantee teams in the Valders Regional would be more than happy to drive an extra hour to not be in the same regional/ with LC, Denmark, Two Rivers, or Wrightstown and add in Freedom, Oconto Falls, etc. at the sectional level as well.  The goal should be to get the best kids at state.  Right now that does not happen.

I hope this brings some attention to this issue although I know it's been talked about.  The data makes the discrepancy pretty stark.  There are simple solutions.  Let's do what's best for kids and figure out something that can work.  Thanks and I hope I'm not being too much of an annoyance.  It's just something that is so blatantly wrong that more light needs to be brought to the situation.

[CrossAnkle]

Case example:If you look at 132 the Valders regional has the #2,#3, and #6 ranked kids in the same regional. Now at most regionals if you coach that kid and know hes a state caliber kid you want to give him every opportunity to qualify for state. You might encourage this 6th ranked kid to drop down, but guess what, you have the #1, #2, and #9 ranked kids in your regional at 126. So, lets just bump up to 138, oh wait, I still have the #9 ranked kid, and HM who is a solid wrestler, so there still in no guarantee. Most of you will say that just life, or its just a really tough regional this year, but the fact of the matter is teams like Lux-Casco, Denmark, Wrights-town, Two Rivers are only going to continue to get better, and these guys are not going anywhere. If teams cant be shifted out at the least do some balancing within the sectional to allow the best kids an opportunity to get to sectionals to at least have a chance. You cant argue the facts

[wrastle63]

Like you said it isn't that hard to see which regionals and sectionals are hard/easy. Wish the WIAA would just fix it a little bit. Like we said it will never be perfect, but could be improved a lot. There are areas like this in D3 as well as D1.

[FoldEmUp]

Inherent to the problem is the Milwaukee area. It's a huge population base with lots of students and lots of schools, and, on average, much worse wrestling. What do you do? You can try to spread these schools out to different sectionals. They are all tucked away in the corner of the state, so too much shifting becomes problematic. If you leave them clumped, that section will obviously be easier, and the other three will be denser with quality wrestling teams.

Geography/Population Distribution is a tough problem to overcome here.

I think this is a pretty easy fix:

Oconto Falls to CG-B - Two Rivers, Wrightstown, and Valders (there are other options too like Denmark or Freedom)
CG-B to Oconto Falls - Chilton/Hilbert, Kiel, and New Holstein

The schools are separated by 30 or fewer miles.

There was an article in the Green Bay Press-Gazette last year that talked specifically about this issue: goo.gl/cjx2uc

Here are some interesting quotes:

"We never look at the strength or weakness of a program in determining who goes into a grouping," Hauser said. "We're looking merely for geography...The geographic placement of schools is what it is," Hauser said. "Schools don't want to drive by a community to go to another community. That doesn't make any sense to anybody."

Deb Hauser then goes on to say this about basketball:

"The coaches were trying to get the best two teams out to the sectional instead of having the two best teams play in the regional final," Hauser said. "They're trying to get the two best teams out to the sectional semifinals and finals. The goal is to get the best teams to the state tournament."

So why isn't the goal in wrestling and every other sport the same?

[Ivan Stankowski]

Easiest fix is to get rid of the WIAA entirely and have a club state. Problem solved.

[wrastle63]

Easiest fix is to get rid of the WIAA entirely and have a club state. Problem solved.

False.

[bigoil]

I think they had two champions (Rasmussen and Bosman), a finalist (Smerchek), and 4- 4th placers (Joniaux, Ronsman, Vandenbush, Lloyd).

[shouldvewrestled]

Quick questions? Where did you put MM/GET numbers for placers? Why didn't you count Sparta, Witt-bir, Wisco, maybe Port Washington? They were there can't just take them out, makes for some biased data.

I fully agree with your premise the WIAA could move teams, or better yet restructure the whole system like you and others have said. Will point out the border teams that have moved to that NE sectional again which has made it super hard. Tomahawk, Mosinee, Nekoosa all were in the NW at one time. That's 19 placewinners in your data. Keep them in NW and those numbers get more even in a hurry.

[shouldvewrestled]

Also want to point out that assuming a kid who took third at a regional would for surely beat the 6 other kids in that sectional bracket for the third state qualifier spot is a big stretch. Not impossible but not necessarily likely either.

[FoldEmUp]

Total Medalists (1st-6th)
Oconto Falls - 122
Richland Center - 97
Amery - 87
Cedar Grove-Belgium - 67

Total Runners-Up
Oconto Falls - 28
Richland Center - 16
Amery - 11
Cedar Grove-Belgium - 8

Total State Champions
Oconto Falls - 28
Amery - 18
Richland Center - 14
Cedar Grove-Belgium - 6

Total Finalists
Oconto Falls - 56
Richland Center - 30
Amery - 29
Cedar Grove-Belgium - 14

If you have this data still handy, can you break out those four totals for just Luxemburg-Casco? I know they had five place-winners, including a champion, last year alone. For those numbers to be truly balanced, I'm guessing you have to cherry pick exclusively bad teams to pair with L-C.

Just for Luxemburg-Casco
17/122
6/28
3/28

I would have thought it was more.  (shrug)

[PCA]

Super Regionals is the quick answer

Take regional 1 and regional 2 and combine and take regional 3 and 4 and combine

This way Freedom and Oconto Falls are in different super regionals than Lux-Casco

If you are the 4th best in a regional, you still have a chance at sectionals

[FoldEmUp]

Quick questions? Where did you put MM/GET numbers for placers? Why didn't you count Sparta, Witt-bir, Wisco, maybe Port Washington? They were there can't just take them out, makes for some biased data.

I fully agree with your premise the WIAA could move teams, or better yet restructure the whole system like you and others have said. Will point out the border teams that have moved to that NE sectional again which has made it super hard. Tomahawk, Mosinee, Nekoosa all were in the NW at one time. That's 19 placewinners in your data. Keep them in NW and those numbers get more even in a hurry.

Because those schools aren't in our current sectionals.  I was trying to show the strength of the sectionals as they stand today.

As I stated though, if I included all of the teams it would be even more skewed towards the Oconto Falls Sectional as Wittenburg-Birnamwood had a significant number of state champions, finalists, and medalists that were not included.

I agree if you take Tomahawk, Mosinee, and Nekoosa out it makes the sectional somewhat more balanced, but they aren't the big dogs in the sectional.  They may have 19 place winners but without going through the raw data again my recollection is those three teams don't have more than 1 or 2 of the 56 finalists over those five years.  More needs to be done to break up the teams in the North Eastern Conference into different sectionals.

[CrossAnkle]

Also want to point out that assuming a kid who took third at a regional would for surely beat the 6 other kids in that sectional bracket for the third state qualifier spot is a big stretch. Not impossible but not necessarily likely either.

Your right and the idea is we want to know for sure that the best kids are getting an opportunity to get to Madison. Not to degrade the other regionals but looks whats returning

Oconto Falls Sectional:
Almond-Bancroft - 1 / 0 / 0
Seymour - 5 / 2 / 0
Valders - 13 / 8 / 2 (Cody Holmes / Bryce Bosman)
Winneconne - 4 / 1 / 0
TOTALS: 23 / 11 / 2

Lux-Casco is always going have a tough team, Denmark, two rivers, and Wrights-town are not that far behind. I would venture to guess that the 3rd place kid at this regional would beat the majority of the 2nd place kids that will come out of the Almond-Bancroft and Winneconne regionals. Thats not a knock on these other teams at the two weaker regionals, its just simply the way it is. The teams that are in the valders regional are not going to have just 4-5 solid kids, these are programs that have 10 kids that are stud wrestlers. You throw that many quality teams into one regional and your going have alot of quality kids that dont even get a chance to get to sectionals.

[wrastle63]

Also want to point out that assuming a kid who took third at a regional would for surely beat the 6 other kids in that sectional bracket for the third state qualifier spot is a big stretch. Not impossible but not necessarily likely either.

Your right and the idea is we want to know for sure that the best kids are getting an opportunity to get to Madison. Not to degrade the other regionals but looks whats returning

Oconto Falls Sectional:
Almond-Bancroft - 1 / 0 / 0
Seymour - 5 / 2 / 0
Valders - 13 / 8 / 2 (Cody Holmes / Bryce Bosman)
Winneconne - 4 / 1 / 0
TOTALS: 23 / 11 / 2

Lux-Casco is always going have a tough team, Denmark, two rivers, and Wrights-town are not that far behind. I would venture to guess that the 3rd place kid at this regional would beat the majority of the 2nd place kids that will come out of the Almond-Bancroft and Winneconne regionals. Thats not a knock on these other teams at the two weaker regionals, its just simply the way it is. The teams that are in the valders regional are not going to have just 4-5 solid kids, these are programs that have 10 kids that are stud wrestlers. You throw that many quality teams into one regional and your going have alot of quality kids that dont even get a chance to get to sectionals.

It is clear there is one "super" regional and three weaker regionals.

[FoldEmUp]

Just for Luxemburg-Casco
17/122
6/28
3/28

I would have thought it was more.  (shrug)

I'm not sure of the discrepency here, but ...

Luxemburg-Casco
2017: 9 Qualifiers / 7 Place-winners / 3 Finalists / 2 Champs
2016: 6 Qualifiers / 2 Place-winners / 1 Finalists / 1 Champs
2015: 5 Qualifiers / 1 Place-winners / 1 Finalists / 0 Champs
2014: 4 Qualifiers / 3 Place-winners / 1 Finalists / 1 Champs
201x: 6 Qualifiers / 4 Place-winners / 3 Finalists / 1 Champs
TOTALS: 30 Qualifiers / 17 Place-winners / 9 Finalists / 5 Champs

I do have 17 medalists which means we had the same totals, but looking at what I marked down as I was going through it by hand I have six markings for state champs (Bosman, Rasmussen, Bosman, Destiche, Pardowsky and Destiche) and three runners-up (Smerchek, Berceau, Skornicka).  So I must have just typed it wrong because obviously Pardowsky did not beat Morrissey! So if I fix that we've got it right.  Sorry about that.

My categories were
Medalist
State Champ
Runner up (not finalist)