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General Discussions => WIWrestling Main Forum => Topic started by: Grant Peissig on October 30, 2014, 09:31:35 PM

Title: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Grant Peissig on October 30, 2014, 09:31:35 PM
Maggie, your bold move of picking Milton to win it all got me going.  Rather than just say "you're wrong" I figured I'd throw my opinion out there and get some chatter going about the upcoming season.  Last year I predicited the following in the preseason: 1.) Kaukauna 2.) Bay Port 3.) Merrill 4.) Sauk Prairie 5.) Holmen.  If you don't believe me you can click on this link http://wiwrestling.info/index.php?topic=39089.0 and it will take you back in time to last fall.

With that being said, I feel fairly confident in my method of evaluating teams in the preseason.  Obviously we don't have skin fold info yet and we aren't sure if anyone is going to quit or get hurt, so you can only be so accurate.  I'm hoping CLC will weigh in with his moneyball analytics and for people who know about incoming freshman to speak up, I don't follow youth wrestling close enough to know who is in what grade.  I know that as a Coach I should probably just keep my mouth shut, but I'm going to channel my inner Askren and get the fans into it.  If you don't like my rankings, make your own and sign your name to it.  Here, we, go.........

1.) Kaukauna:  The Ghosts own the D1 Team State belt, return a pile of talent and therefore start the season #1.  Kaukauna loses some very good seniors from last year's state championship team, but seeing their JV team win a few varsity tournaments last season tells me that the cupboards are stocked with fox valley talent that will be able to fill out the lineup nicely.  They appear to be loaded in the light and middleweights with two Leon boys, two (possibly three - not sure if Zach will be a Freshman?) Lee boys, VanHandel, Frassetto, VandenHeuvel, Kloehn, and Shuhoski.  It will be interesting to see how their young upper weights develop, if any of the lightweights can get to 106 again this year, how they will sort out the log jam of talented wrestlers in the light and middleweights, and if they can make it two straight team state titles.

2.) Bay Port:  While I believe any of the teams ranked 2-7 could make the argument that they should be ranked #2, Bay Port gets the nod because of their state runner up finish last year, the number of quality wrestlers returning, and the fact that they have shown that their program has the ability to reload after being hit by significant losses to graduation.  The Pirates lose Chase Farr from the lightweights, but return the majority of their starters from 106-152.  Returning state qualifiers Andres (182) and VanDeWalle (285) will lead the upper weights along with VanEnkenvort (220) and another Kitslaar kid who had some wins in Fargo at 170.  Rumor has it that Alec Ingold, who accepted a football scholarship to Northern Illinois, will not be wrestling this season due to conditions of the scholarship.  Obviously Ingold is a very talented athlete and a great wrestler.  if he is in the mix he is the odds on favorite to win it all at 195 and is a major hammer in the Bay Port lineup.  Seeing how everything shakes out with him is possibly the biggest thing to keep an eye on early in the season and will no doubt impact how things end up in February & March.   

3.) Menomonie:  Here is the hard part - ranking your own team.  As I write this I am knocking on wood, throwing salt over my left shoulder and praying the rosary like my late Grandma Peissig did as she watched her grandsons compete in the state wrestling tournament as to not jinx our season.  I bring us in at #3 due to the way we finished last season and the talent that we bring back.  State placewinners Logan Schlough and Mason Stokke lead the way along with state qualifier Joe Ford. Josh Waddell, Hayden Schlough and Dylan Kadlec were wrestlers who spent most of the season ranked but missed out on the state tournament.  We have some more high quality wrestlers ready to roll, but I'm not quite dumb enough to give away all of my secrets voluntarily!   

4.) Stoughton: Zach Hasselberger, Colin Kraus and Joe Nelson give the Vikings 3 potential individual state champions and make them a legitimate contender for a team state title.  Complimenting the aforementioned studs in the lineup are Sectional placewinners Klein, Jenny, Model, Helland, and Benton.  I'm not sure if middle school standouts Dow and Spilde will be freshman this season, but if they are I would guess that they will be capable of stepping in and winning matches right away.  It looks like the rivalry between Milton and Stoughton will remain intense this year as they will battle with Sauk Prairie for the Badger Conference championship and most likely duke it out for the Team Sectional E title. I think they are as good as anybody from 106-152, but if there are too many holes in the upper weights it will eventually sink the Vikings ship.

5.) Milton: 5 returning state qualifiers lead the way for Milton this season as they look to be one of the top teams in the state.  The Shea brothers, Chesmore, Whitehead and Wileman all made it to the Kohl Center last February.  They will be joined by Gohlke, Pitzner, and McCarthy who also performed well in 2013-2014.   Overall, Milton was a very young team last season and experienced a great deal of success, if that youth matured over the offseason they will be a force to be reckoned with this year.

6.) Burlington: The Demons peaked at the right time last season and made a run to the team state semifinals before falling to eventual champion Kaukauna.  Josh Bird and Ben Hornickle give Burlington two contenders for individual state titles, while Shenkenberg, Iverson, and Teidt return after wrestling well a year ago.  I saw there was another Bird who placed high at the youth state tournament.  I'm not sure if he will be a freshman or not, If he is I would assume that he will step in and make some noise right away.

7.) Pulaski: It looks as though Pulaski and Bay Port will once again be neck and neck for the Fox River Classic Conference and Regional title.  The Raiders have the firepower to knock off the defending team state runner up lead by Seniors Kasey Caelwarts and Hunter Micolicheck.  Micolicheck took 4th at 285 last season and is the highest returning placewinner at 285.  Caelwarts had a great regular season but did not compete in the postseason, if he is is back at full strength this year he will be a tough matchup for anyone.  Prentice, May, and VanLaanen are back after state tournament appearances a year ago.  Clark, Gille, and Rassmussen were one win away from qualifying for state.  If this lineup comes together the way it could they will be a very dangerous team.

8.) Merrill: Arnie's crew is coming off an outstanding season which ended in a narrow defeat to the hands of Bay Port in the team state semifinals.  Seniors Mason Reinhardt and Scott Arneson will both be looking to finish their careers in style.  Joining them in the lineup are Welch, Schultz and Ball all of whom seemed to come on at the end of last season.  Merrill has one of the best coaching staffs in the state and they always seem to put a tough team on the mat, but it will be difficult to replace the senior class they had last year.  Only time will tell how the Blue Jays overcome the loss of Beyer, Nicholson, Pophal, Hintze, Klug, and Schmidt.

9.) Sauk Prairie: Sauk has become a staple in the top 10 over the past two seasons with back to back team state appearances.  The Eagles were hit pretty hard by graduation, but return a solid nucleus in Eddy Smith, Drew Fjoser, Austin Powell, and Gage Neumaier.  The Badger Conference will be very competitive this year with 3 teams in my preseason top 10 doing battle for the title.  No matter how the conference race ends up, Sauk Prairie still looks to be the favorite in Sectional C and will have a great opportunity to make it 3 straight trips to the team state tournament.

10.) Hudson: The Raiders have been a strong program for quite some time and this season should be no different.  Sawyer Massie is the only returning state qualifier in the lineup, but depth is what makes Hudson a top 10 team in my opinion.  Massie will be supported by Sectional placewinners Bronson and Klabon along with Matt Koski, Mitch Fanning, Dylan Anderson and Max Gierke all of whom have a ton of varsity experience under their belts.  Look for Sophomore Isac Schindler and Freshman Jacob Anderson to break into the lineup and be in the hunt for a state tournament berth come February.  We have had some great battles with these guys the past couple years and I would expect the same this time around.  If you are looking to catch a good dual come to Menomonie on December 18th and see who will get the inside track for the Big Rivers Conference title.

Honorable Mention: Wisconsin Rapids, Menomonee Falls, Cedarburg, Elkhorn, Holmen 
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Troy Grindle on October 30, 2014, 10:34:50 PM
Nice breakdown grant.  The difference between 2-7 isn't much.  kaukauna has to be the preseason pick to win it but I think that milton will match up really well against them if they ever meet this year.  I didn't realize that pulaski had that much coming back, sounds like they will be a really solid team this year
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: whatever on October 31, 2014, 08:38:17 AM
Very impressive analysis, Grant....I enjoyed reading it.

Good luck to you and your pops ;)
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: DarkKnight on October 31, 2014, 09:35:50 AM
nice assessment. Nice to know how the top D1 teams are shaping up...Its just Kaukauna's time, barring injuries and such.

I could do the same for D3, but i dont really know who to put #1. Its too close.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: HMsDad on October 31, 2014, 10:12:22 AM
Quote from: DarkKnight on October 31, 2014, 09:35:50 AM
nice assessment. Nice to know how the top D1 teams are shaping up...Its just Kaukauna's time, barring injuries and such.

I could do the same for D3, but i dont really know who to put #1. Its too close.

Flip a coin.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: wrestle03 on October 31, 2014, 10:29:07 AM
I believe Zach Lee is a freshman at Kaukauna this year.  He is the real deal.  When its all said and done, I think he may be better than his brother Robert.  Kaukauna is loaded again.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Ino on October 31, 2014, 11:38:27 AM
Good work Grant, but you are to modest.  No doubt Menomonie should be at #2, Bayport graduated to much talent and could be ranked behind Pulaski. This could be the year Wi Rapids returns to team state.

Division 1 team state bracket:
Sectional D winner vs. Sectional H winner,
Sectional A winner vs. Sectional G winner,
Sectional B winner vs. Sectional F winner,
Sectional C winner vs. Sectional E winner
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: DarkKnight on October 31, 2014, 12:14:06 PM
Quote from: Ino on October 31, 2014, 11:38:27 AM
Good work Grant, but you are to modest.  No doubt Menomonie should be at #2, Bayport graduated to much talent and could be ranked behind Pulaski. This could be the year Wi Rapids returns to team state.

Division 1 team state bracket:
Sectional D winner vs. Sectional H winner,
Sectional A winner vs. Sectional G winner,
Sectional B winner vs. Sectional F winner,
Sectional C winner vs. Sectional E winner

So where is Milton in relation to Menominie and Kaukauna? In the state bracket
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: DarkKnight on October 31, 2014, 12:18:09 PM
Quote from: HMsDad on October 31, 2014, 10:12:22 AM
Quote from: DarkKnight on October 31, 2014, 09:35:50 AM
nice assessment. Nice to know how the top D1 teams are shaping up...Its just Kaukauna's time, barring injuries and such.

I could do the same for D3, but i dont really know who to put #1. Its too close.

Flip a coin.

I dont rely on coins to do my work haha.

I'll know more when the season starts... but i would put Stratford #1, Spring Valley #2, and Coleman #3.  Stratford has freshmen talent coming in, while Coleman lost 3 superstar seniors and bring in no freshmen talent. So its pretty close between these 3.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: HMsDad on October 31, 2014, 12:24:51 PM
2015 Wrestling Assignments

updated 6/24/14

Regionals – Saturday, February 14
Team Sectionals – Tuesday, February 17
Sectionals - Saturday, February 21
State Individual Tournament - February 26-27-28, Kohl Center, UW-Madison
State Team Tournament - March 6-7 Fieldhouse, UW-Madison
(Sites may be changed as a result of schools dropping this sport or declining to host.)

DIVISION 1

SECTIONAL A - EAU CLAIRE NORTH

Team Sectional - Menomonie

REGIONAL I - RIVER FALLS- Chippewa Falls, Eau Claire Memorial, Eau Claire North, Hudson, Menomonie, New Richmond, River Falls, Superior.

REGIONAL II - MARSHFIELD - Antigo, D. C. Everest, Marshfield, Merrill, Rhinelander, Stevens Point, Wausau East, Wausau West.

SECTIONAL B - GREEN BAY WEST/SOUTHWEST

Team Sectional - Pulaski

REGIONAL I - GREEN BAY PREBLE/EAST - Ashwaubenon, Bay Port, De Pere, Green Bay Preble/Green Bay East, Green Bay West/ Southwest, Pulaski, Shawano Community, West De Pere.

REGIONAL II - NEW LONDON - Appleton East, Appleton North, Appleton West, Hortonville, Neenah, New London, Wisconsin Rapids Lincoln, Xavier/Saint Mary Central.

SECTIONAL C - MIDDLETON

Team Sectional - Baraboo

REGIONAL I - BARABOO - Baraboo, Holmen, La Crosse Central, La Crosse Logan, Onalaska, Reedsburg Area, Sauk Prairie, Tomah.

REGIONAL II - WAUNAKEE - DeForest, Madison East, Madison La Follette, Madison Memorial, Madison West, Middleton, Monona Grove/McFarland, Waunakee.

SECTIONAL D - KAUKAUNA

Team Sectional - Oshkosh North

REGIONAL I - MANITOWOC LINCOLN - Kaukauna, Kimberly, Manitowoc Lincoln, Port Washington, Sheboygan North, Sheboygan South, West Bend East, West Bend West.

REGIONAL II - BEAVER DAM - Beaver Dam, Fond du Lac, Hartford Union, Menasha, Oshkosh North, Oshkosh West, Plymouth, Slinger.

SECTIONAL E - SUN PRAIRIE

Team Sectional - Verona Area

REGIONAL I - STOUGHTON - Elkhorn Area, Fort Atkinson, Oconomowoc, Oregon, Stoughton, Sun Prairie, Verona Area, Watertown.

REGIONAL II - SITE NEEDED- Badger, Beloit Memorial, Delavan-Darien, Janesville Craig, Janesville Parker, Milton, Westosha Central, Wilmot Union.

SECTIONAL F - WAUKESHA WEST

Team Sectional - Mukwonago

REGIONAL I - KETTLE MORAINE - Brookfield Central, Brookfield East, Kettle Moraine, New Berlin West/New Berlin Eisenhower, Pewaukee, Waukesha North, Waukesha South, Waukesha West.

REGIONAL II - WEST ALLIS CENTRAL - Greendale, Greenfield, Mukwonago, Muskego, Waterford, West Allis Central, West Allis Nathan Hale, Whitnall.

SECTIONAL G - MENOMONEE FALLS

Team Sectional - Site Needed

REGIONAL I - SITE NEEDED- Arrowhead, Cedarburg, Germantown, Hamilton, Homestead, Menomonee Falls, Milwaukee Madison/Languages/Samuel Morse. Marshall, Milwaukee Vincent/Brown Deer.

REGIONAL II - NICOLET - Marquette Uni., Milwaukee King, Milwaukee Riverside University/Shorewood, Milwaukee Washington/Milwaukee Collegiate Academy, Nicolet, Pius XI, Wauwatosa West/ East, Whitefish Bay.

SECTIONAL H - BURLINGTON

Team Sectional - Site Needed

REGIONAL I - RACINE CASE - Burlington, Kenosha Bradford, Kenosha Indian Trail, Kenosha Tremper, Racine Case, Racine Horlick, Racine Park, Union Grove.

REGIONAL II - SITE NEEDED - Cudahy/Saint Francis/Saint Thomas More, Franklin, Milwaukee Bay View/Lifelong Learning/South, Milwaukee Bradley Technical, Milwaukee Hamilton, Milwaukee Pulaski/Arts/Juneau/Ronald Reagan, Oak Creek, South Milwaukee.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: shouldvewrestled on October 31, 2014, 03:01:14 PM
Quote from: DarkKnight on October 31, 2014, 12:14:06 PM
Quote from: Ino on October 31, 2014, 11:38:27 AM
Good work Grant, but you are to modest.  No doubt Menomonie should be at #2, Bayport graduated to much talent and could be ranked behind Pulaski. This could be the year Wi Rapids returns to team state.

Division 1 team state bracket:
Sectional D winner vs. Sectional H winner,
Sectional A winner vs. Sectional G winner,
Sectional B winner vs. Sectional F winner,
Sectional C winner vs. Sectional E winner

Menomonie would wrestle Kaukauna in the semis of team state if they both make it that far.
So where is Milton in relation to Menominie and Kaukauna? In the state bracket
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: DarkKnight on October 31, 2014, 04:48:28 PM
Quote from: shouldvewrestled on October 31, 2014, 03:01:14 PM
Quote from: DarkKnight on October 31, 2014, 12:14:06 PM
Quote from: Ino on October 31, 2014, 11:38:27 AM
Good work Grant, but you are to modest.  No doubt Menomonie should be at #2, Bayport graduated to much talent and could be ranked behind Pulaski. This could be the year Wi Rapids returns to team state.

Division 1 team state bracket:
Sectional D winner vs. Sectional H winner,
Sectional A winner vs. Sectional G winner,
Sectional B winner vs. Sectional F winner,
Sectional C winner vs. Sectional E winner

Menomonie would wrestle Kaukauna in the semis of team state if they both make it that far.
So where is Milton in relation to Menominie and Kaukauna? In the state bracket

I see Milton, it is pretty concievable for Milton to make it to the state finals
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Grant Peissig on October 31, 2014, 06:22:28 PM
I hope everything comes together for us so we can get a crack at the Ghosts in the semis, but we've got a long way to go to get there and have a lot of work to do to get to Kaukauna's level.  We toughened up our schedule this year by getting into the Cheesehead and scheduling some dual meets with Minnesota schools, most notably Simley who has won 9 of the last 10 Class AA MN state titles.  If we can get through healthy we should be battle tested by the end.

As for the bottom half of the team state bracket I think it comes down to Sectional E and Sectional B.  Stoughton and Milton look like they will meet in the Sectional E final and that will be one inappropriate term3 of a dual with some great potential matchups in the light to middle weights.  In sectional B Bay Port and Pulaski will battle it out at regionals and the winner will probably have to wrestle Rapids.  I had Rapids just outside my top 10, but keep and eye on them, something tells me that is a program that won't stay "down" for long.  Maggie just might get his wish with a Milton vs. Rapids rematch, but he will have to settle for the team state semis.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Grant Peissig on October 31, 2014, 06:26:21 PM
And if Zach Lee is a freshman Kaukauna is going to have a log jam of talent in the middle of their lineup.  Their depth is unreal.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Pheasant 1984 on October 31, 2014, 11:26:01 PM
I love it! Coach is putting it out there!
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: boowrestle on November 01, 2014, 12:27:51 PM
If those div 1 state pairings are correct then you are possibly looking at a badger conference 1st rd battle  milton/stoughton vs sauk praire.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: HMsDad on November 01, 2014, 01:22:12 PM
boo

Here is the link to where I got the pairings...

http://wiwrestling.com/HS/wiaa_assign.htm
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Harris on November 02, 2014, 04:09:43 PM
Quote from: Pheasant 1984 on October 31, 2014, 11:26:01 PM
I love it! Coach is putting it out there!

+1
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: CLC FAN on November 02, 2014, 09:54:51 PM
Well Coach, my research (moneyball analytics I believe you referred to them as) is usually more along the lines of forecasting rather than ranking.  So with that in mind, here is my team sectional and team state bracket for D1.  The percentages following the regional winners is the confidence I have in those teams winning their regional.  Those confidences come from at least 100 simulations of each regional using predictions for each team's number of wrestlers and each team's average points per wrestler, and then allowing for random variation.  Too wordy, I know, but that's just me.

D1   Kaukauna (99%)
                               Kaukauna
D2 Osh. North (42%)
                                                   Kaukauna
H1   Burlington (80%)
                               Burlington
H2 Oak Creek  (50%)
                                                                      Kaukauna
A1 Menomonie (77%)
                               Menomonie
A2    Merrill   (50%)
                                                   Menomonie
G1 Men. Falls  (76%)
                               Men. Falls
G2 Whtfsh Bay  (32%)
                                                                                        Kaukauna
B1   Bay Port (89%)
                                 Bay Port
B2 Wis. Rapids (47%)
                                                    Bay Port
F1 Pewaukee (83%)
                               Mukwonago
F2 Mukwonago (63%)
                                                                      Milton
C1 Sauk Prairie (82%)
                               Sauk Prairie
C2 De Forest (38%)
                                                   Milton
E1 Stoughton (66%)
                                  Milton
E2   Milton  (70%)
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: CLC FAN on November 02, 2014, 10:05:37 PM
The most likely regional "upsets" if you view the teams I've picked as favorites:

Reginal A2
Favorite:    Merrill (50%)
Underdogs DC Everest (21%)
              Marshfield (10%)
               Stevens Point (18%)

Regional B2
Favorite:   WI Rapids (47%)
Underdogs New London (28%)
                 Hortonville (18%)

Regional C2
Favorite :   DeForest (38%)
Underdogs Middleton (31%)
                Wauknakee (28%)

Regional D2  (Here's a fun one)
Favorite:  Oshkosh North (42%)
Underdogs Oshkosh West (16%)
                  Hartford   (15%)
                  Slinger   (10%)
                  Menasha  (9%)

Regional G2 (Here's a three-horse race)
Favorite: Whitefish Bay (32%)
Underdogs Wauwatosa W/E (31%)
            Milwaukee Riverside (20%)

Regional H2
Favorite: Oak Creek (50%)
Underdog   South Milwaukee (31%)
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Dizzy on November 02, 2014, 11:00:53 PM
What about region E and F??
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: CLC FAN on November 02, 2014, 11:08:06 PM
If you look at the original bracket, Those were pretty cut-and-dried favorites.  I only showed the underdogs when the favorites had a 50% or less chance of winning the regional.

Got a specific team in mind in one of those regions?
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Dizzy on November 03, 2014, 09:41:09 AM
West Allis Central and Whitnall/Greendale co-op
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Dale Einerson on November 03, 2014, 10:25:34 AM
Quote from: CLC FAN on November 02, 2014, 10:05:37 PM
The most likely regional "upsets" if you view the teams I've picked as favorites:

Reginal A2
Favorite:    Merrill (50%)
Underdogs DC Everest (21%)
              Marshfield (10%)
               Stevens Point (18%)

Regional B2
Favorite:   WI Rapids (47%)
Underdogs New London (28%)
                 Hortonville (18%)

Regional C2
Favorite :   DeForest (38%)
Underdogs Middleton (31%)
                Wauknakee (28%)

Regional D2  (Here's a fun one)
Favorite:  Oshkosh North (42%)
Underdogs Oshkosh West (16%)
                  Hartford   (15%)
                  Slinger   (10%)
                  Menasha  (9%)

Regional G2 (Here's a three-horse race)
Favorite: Whitefish Bay (32%)
Underdogs Wauwatosa W/E (31%)
            Milwaukee Riverside (20%)

Regional H2
Favorite: Oak Creek (50%)
Underdog   South Milwaukee (31%)

Thanks for putting this out there guys, makes for an interesting read.

CLC, can you please, in your best layman's terms, tell us how percentages are generated?  Of course, I am trying to guesstimate some puts and takes on potential surprises.

Pewaukee makes the transition to D1!  Love what Coach Kurth does for and with that program...  Do the results from a D2 Sectional potentially skew the analysis in this "all things being equal" analysis in some way?  I am kind of thinking "no," but thought it was worth other insights.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: CLC FAN on November 03, 2014, 01:41:23 PM
Quote from: Dale Einerson on November 03, 2014, 10:25:34 AM


CLC, can you please, in your best layman's terms, tell us how percentages are generated?  Of course, I am trying to guesstimate some puts and takes on potential surprises.

#bookiewanted

Layman's terms: Let's say that I predict that Team Dale will have 10 regional starters and those starters will score 18 points each at regionals.  My baseline prediction is then that Team Dale scores 180 points at regionals.  The percentage comes into play because I am aware that the true results will likely not match my results, but will fall into a range near 180.

I have gone back and measured how much my projections tend to be off.  For D1, I am usually within 2 for regional starters and almost never more than 3.5 off.  For points/starter I am usually within 2.5 points and almost never off by more than 5 points/starter.  So I basically allow random chance to alter Team Dale's outcome.  Sometimes they have more than 10 starters, sometimes they earn more than 18 points each.  A computer generates random outcomes for Team Dale, and for each team in the regionals.  The percentages are how frequently each team won the regional in my computer-generated simulations. 

So for Kaukauna, I predict them to have 14 in their lineup and to score 19.4 pts/regional starter.  When I ran the simulations, I got total points for Kaukauna anywhere from 163 to 323, but most times (99 out of 100 in fact) they won the regional.

That makes so much sense in my head.  I hope it came out clear. 
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: CLC FAN on November 03, 2014, 01:47:19 PM
Quote from: Dizzy on November 03, 2014, 09:41:09 AM
West Allis Central and Whitnall/Greendale co-op

Regional F2
Favorite: Mukwonago (63%)
Underdogs: West Allis Central (22%)
                Whitnall/Greendale (7%)
                Muskego         (5%)
Everyone else in the regional = 1% or less each
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: gwmiller44 on November 03, 2014, 02:08:40 PM
If Tosa has there starters at the end they will be in the team sectional.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Grant Peissig on November 03, 2014, 02:15:21 PM
Excellent work as usual CLC.  Thanks to everyone for weighing in with your thoughts, as Dale said, it makes for an interesting read.

CLC, my question for you is in regards to Bay Port.  Are you counting Ingold in or out?  I'm just kind of surprised that they are that heavy of a statistical favorite over Pulaski in the Regional.

On another note, I didn't expect to see Robert Lee competing at 145 lbs. in the Super 32.  I think I read on here that he didn't have to cut much, if any weight to make 138 for Fargo this summer.  Maybe bulking him up is how Kaukauna plans to spread out their talent this season?  I guess we will know soon enough, and congrats to The General on a great performance in a very tough tournament.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: CLC FAN on November 03, 2014, 03:26:23 PM
Quote from: Grant Peissig on November 03, 2014, 02:15:21 PM
CLC, my question for you is in regards to Bay Port.  Are you counting Ingold in or out?  I'm just kind of surprised that they are that heavy of a statistical favorite over Pulaski in the Regional.

I count all of last year's starters who did not graduate, so Ingold got counted.  Including Ingold, Bay Port brings back starters who averaged 20.1 points each last year.  Pulaski's starters averaged 16.4.  Even if you remove Ingold, Bay Port still averages 19.2 pts/returning starter.  Since my prediction is for both teams to be full or very close, the 4 points extra per regional starter translates into Bay Port winning a healthy percent of the time. 
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aarons23 on November 03, 2014, 03:33:40 PM
Quote from: CLC FAN on November 03, 2014, 03:26:23 PM
Quote from: Grant Peissig on November 03, 2014, 02:15:21 PM
CLC, my question for you is in regards to Bay Port.  Are you counting Ingold in or out?  I'm just kind of surprised that they are that heavy of a statistical favorite over Pulaski in the Regional.

I count all of last year's starters who did not graduate, so Ingold got counted.  Including Ingold, Bay Port brings back starters who averaged 20.1 points each last year.  Pulaski's starters averaged 16.4.  Even if you remove Ingold, Bay Port still averages 19.2 pts/returning starter.  Since my prediction is for both teams to be full or very close, the 4 points extra per regional starter translates into Bay Port winning a healthy percent of the time. 

But if you subtract Ingold from Bayport you must also add Caelworts to Pulaski which both scenerios probally take points away from Bay Port and add Points to Pulaski (Caelworts points taking away possible bayport points and loss of Ingold points increases Pulaski points.)

I sure hope Ingold wrestles. I would be very disappointed if he didn't.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Jim Rockford on November 03, 2014, 04:20:10 PM
Quote from: Grant Peissig on October 30, 2014, 09:31:35 PM
Maggie, your bold move of picking Milton to win it all got me going.  Rather than just say "you're wrong" I figured I'd throw my opinion out there and get some chatter going about the upcoming season.  Last year I predicited the following in the preseason: 1.) Kaukauna 2.) Bay Port 3.) Merrill 4.) Sauk Prairie 5.) Holmen.  If you don't believe me you can click on this link http://wiwrestling.info/index.php?topic=39089.0 and it will take you back in time to last fall.

With that being said, I feel fairly confident in my method of evaluating teams in the preseason.  Obviously we don't have skin fold info yet and we aren't sure if anyone is going to quit or get hurt, so you can only be so accurate.  I'm hoping CLC will weigh in with his moneyball analytics and for people who know about incoming freshman to speak up, I don't follow youth wrestling close enough to know who is in what grade.  I know that as a Coach I should probably just keep my mouth shut, but I'm going to channel my inner Askren and get the fans into it.  If you don't like my rankings, make your own and sign your name to it.  Here, we, go.........

1.) Kaukauna:  The Ghosts own the D1 Team State belt, return a pile of talent and therefore start the season #1.  Kaukauna loses some very good seniors from last year's state championship team, but seeing their JV team win a few varsity tournaments last season tells me that the cupboards are stocked with fox valley talent that will be able to fill out the lineup nicely.  They appear to be loaded in the light and middleweights with two Leon boys, two (possibly three - not sure if Zach will be a Freshman?) Lee boys, VanHandel, Frassetto, VandenHeuvel, Kloehn, and Shuhoski.  It will be interesting to see how their young upper weights develop, if any of the lightweights can get to 106 again this year, how they will sort out the log jam of talented wrestlers in the light and middleweights, and if they can make it two straight team state titles.

2.) Bay Port:  While I believe any of the teams ranked 2-7 could make the argument that they should be ranked #2, Bay Port gets the nod because of their state runner up finish last year, the number of quality wrestlers returning, and the fact that they have shown that their program has the ability to reload after being hit by significant losses to graduation.  The Pirates lose Chase Farr from the lightweights, but return the majority of their starters from 106-152.  Returning state qualifiers Andres (182) and VanDeWalle (285) will lead the upper weights along with VanEnkenvort (220) and another Kitslaar kid who had some wins in Fargo at 170.  Rumor has it that Alec Ingold, who accepted a football scholarship to Northern Illinois, will not be wrestling this season due to conditions of the scholarship.  Obviously Ingold is a very talented athlete and a great wrestler.  if he is in the mix he is the odds on favorite to win it all at 195 and is a major hammer in the Bay Port lineup.  Seeing how everything shakes out with him is possibly the biggest thing to keep an eye on early in the season and will no doubt impact how things end up in February & March.   

3.) Menomonie:  Here is the hard part - ranking your own team.  As I write this I am knocking on wood, throwing salt over my left shoulder and praying the rosary like my late Grandma Peissig did as she watched her grandsons compete in the state wrestling tournament as to not jinx our season.  I bring us in at #3 due to the way we finished last season and the talent that we bring back.  State placewinners Logan Schlough and Mason Stokke lead the way along with state qualifier Joe Ford. Josh Waddell, Hayden Schlough and Dylan Kadlec were wrestlers who spent most of the season ranked but missed out on the state tournament.  We have some more high quality wrestlers ready to roll, but I'm not quite dumb enough to give away all of my secrets voluntarily!   

4.) Stoughton: Zach Hasselberger, Colin Kraus and Joe Nelson give the Vikings 3 potential individual state champions and make them a legitimate contender for a team state title.  Complimenting the aforementioned studs in the lineup are Sectional placewinners Klein, Jenny, Model, Helland, and Benton.  I'm not sure if middle school standouts Dow and Spilde will be freshman this season, but if they are I would guess that they will be capable of stepping in and winning matches right away.  It looks like the rivalry between Milton and Stoughton will remain intense this year as they will battle with Sauk Prairie for the Badger Conference championship and most likely duke it out for the Team Sectional E title. I think they are as good as anybody from 106-152, but if there are too many holes in the upper weights it will eventually sink the Vikings ship.

5.) Milton: 5 returning state qualifiers lead the way for Milton this season as they look to be one of the top teams in the state.  The Shea brothers, Chesmore, Whitehead and Wileman all made it to the Kohl Center last February.  They will be joined by Gohlke, Pitzner, and McCarthy who also performed well in 2013-2014.   Overall, Milton was a very young team last season and experienced a great deal of success, if that youth matured over the offseason they will be a force to be reckoned with this year.

6.) Burlington: The Demons peaked at the right time last season and made a run to the team state semifinals before falling to eventual champion Kaukauna.  Josh Bird and Ben Hornickle give Burlington two contenders for individual state titles, while Shenkenberg, Iverson, and Teidt return after wrestling well a year ago.  I saw there was another Bird who placed high at the youth state tournament.  I'm not sure if he will be a freshman or not, If he is I would assume that he will step in and make some noise right away.

7.) Pulaski: It looks as though Pulaski and Bay Port will once again be neck and neck for the Fox River Classic Conference and Regional title.  The Raiders have the firepower to knock off the defending team state runner up lead by Seniors Kasey Caelwarts and Hunter Micolicheck.  Micolicheck took 4th at 285 last season and is the highest returning placewinner at 285.  Caelwarts had a great regular season but did not compete in the postseason, if he is is back at full strength this year he will be a tough matchup for anyone.  Prentice, May, and VanLaanen are back after state tournament appearances a year ago.  Clark, Gille, and Rassmussen were one win away from qualifying for state.  If this lineup comes together the way it could they will be a very dangerous team.

8.) Merrill: Arnie's crew is coming off an outstanding season which ended in a narrow defeat to the hands of Bay Port in the team state semifinals.  Seniors Mason Reinhardt and Scott Arneson will both be looking to finish their careers in style.  Joining them in the lineup are Welch, Schultz and Ball all of whom seemed to come on at the end of last season.  Merrill has one of the best coaching staffs in the state and they always seem to put a tough team on the mat, but it will be difficult to replace the senior class they had last year.  Only time will tell how the Blue Jays overcome the loss of Beyer, Nicholson, Pophal, Hintze, Klug, and Schmidt.

9.) Sauk Prairie: Sauk has become a staple in the top 10 over the past two seasons with back to back team state appearances.  The Eagles were hit pretty hard by graduation, but return a solid nucleus in Eddy Smith, Drew Fjoser, Austin Powell, and Gage Neumaier.  The Badger Conference will be very competitive this year with 3 teams in my preseason top 10 doing battle for the title.  No matter how the conference race ends up, Sauk Prairie still looks to be the favorite in Sectional C and will have a great opportunity to make it 3 straight trips to the team state tournament.

10.) Hudson: The Raiders have been a strong program for quite some time and this season should be no different.  Sawyer Massie is the only returning state qualifier in the lineup, but depth is what makes Hudson a top 10 team in my opinion.  Massie will be supported by Sectional placewinners Bronson and Klabon along with Matt Koski, Mitch Fanning, Dylan Anderson and Max Gierke all of whom have a ton of varsity experience under their belts.  Look for Sophomore Isac Schindler and Freshman Jacob Anderson to break into the lineup and be in the hunt for a state tournament berth come February.  We have had some great battles with these guys the past couple years and I would expect the same this time around.  If you are looking to catch a good dual come to Menomonie on December 18th and see who will get the inside track for the Big Rivers Conference title.

Honorable Mention: Wisconsin Rapids, Menomonee Falls, Cedarburg, Elkhorn, Holmen 

Joe Nelson is not enrolled in Stoughton this year so that will be a big loss for the team
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: PH on November 03, 2014, 05:00:58 PM
I just wanted to say that one of the changes for this up coming season is that they are seeding the team state tournament.  That is one of the new rules in place for the 2014-15 season.  I don't have my rule changes with me, but I am pretty positive about this.  The head coaches from each qualifiying team will have a meeting at the individual state tournament to seed the teams.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: DarkKnight on November 03, 2014, 05:53:03 PM
Quote from: PH on November 03, 2014, 05:00:58 PM
I just wanted to say that one of the changes for this up coming season is that they are seeding the team state tournament.  That is one of the new rules in place for the 2014-15 season.  I don't have my rule changes with me, but I am pretty positive about this.  The head coaches from each qualifiying team will have a meeting at the individual state tournament to seed the teams.

Will D2 and D3 also be seeded? i have heard talk about this but didnt know they were going to do it... thats pretty nice to seed it, though there will bound be dispute on who is seeded above who in the middle of the pack
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: CLC FAN on November 03, 2014, 06:23:21 PM
Quote from: PH on November 03, 2014, 05:00:58 PM
I just wanted to say that one of the changes for this up coming season is that they are seeding the team state tournament.  That is one of the new rules in place for the 2014-15 season.  I don't have my rule changes with me, but I am pretty positive about this.  The head coaches from each qualifiying team will have a meeting at the individual state tournament to seed the teams.

I do not believe that rule is in effect for this year.  Please cite your source.  The wiaa website under wrestling:rules & regulations:tournament procedures lists the preassigned order listed in this thread.

Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: boowrestle on November 03, 2014, 06:38:03 PM
i also heard thru the grapevine that team state is going to seed the teams starting 2014/15,guess we will all have to wait and see,but please when somebody knows a definate answer please share.:)
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Troy Grindle on November 03, 2014, 08:43:28 PM
How do you decide how many starters each team will have?  Do you just go off of how many they went to regionals with the year before?  What about teams leaving a regional, are you able to account for that also?  Pretty neat analysis.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Grant Peissig on November 03, 2014, 09:27:40 PM
Quote from: Jim Rockford on November 03, 2014, 04:20:10 PM

Joe Nelson is not enrolled in Stoughton this year so that will be a big loss for the team

That is some big news Jimbo.  Do you know where he is enrolled?
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Ino on November 03, 2014, 09:50:09 PM
Quote from: PH on November 03, 2014, 05:00:58 PM
I just wanted to say that one of the changes for this up coming season is that they are seeding the team state tournament.  That is one of the new rules in place for the 2014-15 season.  I don't have my rule changes with me, but I am pretty positive about this.  The head coaches from each qualifiying team will have a meeting at the individual state tournament to seed the teams.

From what I have read the WI Wrestling Coaches Association proposed several changes, but this is what the WIAA approved:

Of the number of recommendations presented in wrestling, three were passed into regulations.
Assistant referees will be used for the semifinals and finals of the State Team and Individual Tournaments beginning in 2015,
The third and fifth place matches will be run concurrently by weight class and division in the State Individual Tournament.
Retain the 3 p.m. start time for the finals session of the State Team Tournament.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: HMsDad on November 04, 2014, 05:58:40 AM
Grant,
Could you tell us anything about seeding team state?
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Grant Peissig on November 04, 2014, 08:31:16 AM
Quote from: HMsDad on November 04, 2014, 05:58:40 AM
Grant,
Could you tell us anything about seeding team state?

All I know is basically the same as what has already been stated.  I remember last spring the WWCA brought it to the WIAA, but I lost track of it after that.  I assumed since I hadn't heard anything more about it that the WIAA shot it down.  Maybe someone who made it to the coaches/referee clinic last weekend has some more info on it?  Until I see that the team state tournament will be seeded on the WIAA website, I'm going to assume that it will remain status quo this season.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Dale Einerson on November 04, 2014, 09:25:35 AM
Quote from: CLC FAN on November 03, 2014, 01:41:23 PM
Quote from: Dale Einerson on November 03, 2014, 10:25:34 AM


CLC, can you please, in your best layman's terms, tell us how percentages are generated?  Of course, I am trying to guesstimate some puts and takes on potential surprises.

#bookiewanted

Layman's terms: Let's say that I predict that Team Dale will have 10 regional starters and those starters will score 18 points each at regionals.  My baseline prediction is then that Team Dale scores 180 points at regionals.  The percentage comes into play because I am aware that the true results will likely not match my results, but will fall into a range near 180.

I have gone back and measured how much my projections tend to be off.  For D1, I am usually within 2 for regional starters and almost never more than 3.5 off.  For points/starter I am usually within 2.5 points and almost never off by more than 5 points/starter.  So I basically allow random chance to alter Team Dale's outcome.  Sometimes they have more than 10 starters, sometimes they earn more than 18 points each.  A computer generates random outcomes for Team Dale, and for each team in the regionals.  The percentages are how frequently each team won the regional in my computer-generated simulations. 

So for Kaukauna, I predict them to have 14 in their lineup and to score 19.4 pts/regional starter.  When I ran the simulations, I got total points for Kaukauna anywhere from 163 to 323, but most times (99 out of 100 in fact) they won the regional.

That makes so much sense in my head.  I hope it came out clear. 

Very much appreciated, thank you. 

And go Team Dale!  We are working on conditioning and our guys really want it more than the other guy, if we can get the weights to settle in, just get some refs to not hate on us, Team Dale will make some noise...
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: wrestle03 on November 04, 2014, 11:49:23 AM
Grant Peissig, I read a post on the Badgers page on this site that Lee didn't cut any weight for the Super32 and weighed in at 141 and wrestled at 145.  I would imagine he is at 138.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: bigoil on November 04, 2014, 12:11:31 PM
Quote from: aarons23 on November 03, 2014, 03:33:40 PM
Quote from: CLC FAN on November 03, 2014, 03:26:23 PM
Quote from: Grant Peissig on November 03, 2014, 02:15:21 PM
CLC, my question for you is in regards to Bay Port.  Are you counting Ingold in or out?  I'm just kind of surprised that they are that heavy of a statistical favorite over Pulaski in the Regional.

I count all of last year's starters who did not graduate, so Ingold got counted.  Including Ingold, Bay Port brings back starters who averaged 20.1 points each last year.  Pulaski's starters averaged 16.4.  Even if you remove Ingold, Bay Port still averages 19.2 pts/returning starter.  Since my prediction is for both teams to be full or very close, the 4 points extra per regional starter translates into Bay Port winning a healthy percent of the time. 

But if you subtract Ingold from Bayport you must also add Caelworts to Pulaski which both scenerios probally take points away from Bay Port and add Points to Pulaski (Caelworts points taking away possible bayport points and loss of Ingold points increases Pulaski points.)

I sure hope Ingold wrestles. I would be very disappointed if he didn't.

That FB scholarship didn't prevent him from playing Safety against Ashwaubenon for the better part of the game. Wrestle, we need dominant athletes in our sport!
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: CLC FAN on November 04, 2014, 03:22:39 PM
Quote from: Troy Grindle on November 03, 2014, 08:43:28 PM
How do you decide how many starters each team will have?  Do you just go off of how many they went to regionals with the year before?  What about teams leaving a regional, are you able to account for that also?  Pretty neat analysis.

The prediction for this year's starters is based on two variables - starters last year and seniors last  year.  Starters last year is the much more important factor according to past evidence.  Also, this year I started keeping track of the "perpetually full" teams.  If a team has been full the last 3 years straight, I predict them to be full again this year (allowing some random variation as I said before).  In that case I ignore the number of seniors they had last year.  So Kaukauna (for instance) could have graduated every single regional starter - I would still predict them to be full because for the last 3 years, they have always been full. 

Your second question brings in a lot of subjectivity.  Up until this point, anyone would get the exact same predictions as I would if they did the research I did and used my "starters next year" prediction formulas.  When teams switch regionals (or worse, switch divisions) a subjective adjustment has to be made.  The adjustment is on the prediction for points/starter.  I don't have a cut-and-dried way to do this, and I don't know that creating one is feasible.  So if Team Dale goes from a D2 regional to a D1 regional, I assume it will be harder to score points - but how much harder?  That is a guess.  Often what I end up doing if a team is switching regionals within their division is leave them alone unless I know something about the teams they are either leaving behind or joining.  When teams switch divisions I usually make adjustments.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: DocWrestling on November 04, 2014, 05:31:43 PM
Marty Loy Classic has added 2 new contending teams this year in Bayport and Mukwonago.  They will compete for the title with Menomonie, Sauk Prairie(defending champ), Burlington, Menomonee Falls, Hudson, Stevens Point, plus many more.  Team list is on trackwrestling.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Grant Peissig on November 05, 2014, 04:57:38 PM
Quote from: DocWrestling on November 04, 2014, 05:31:43 PM
Marty Loy Classic has added 2 new contending teams this year in Bayport and Mukwonago.  They will compete for the title with Menomonie, Sauk Prairie(defending champ), Burlington, Menomonee Falls, Hudson, Stevens Point, plus many more.  Team list is on trackwrestling.


Bay Port and Muckwanago will definitely make a tough tournament even tougher.  It should be fun to see where a lot of the top teams are at early in the season.  This or the Pulaski tournament has to be the toughest 1 day regular season event in Wisconsin.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Chris Hansen on November 05, 2014, 09:31:42 PM
Team State will NOT be seeded.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: crossface21 on November 05, 2014, 09:46:00 PM
Team State is not seeded this season.

http://www.wiaawi.org/Portals/0/PDF/Publications/Winter_Sport_Regs/wrestlingtournregs.pdf
Page 17
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: AmerysFinest on November 17, 2014, 02:31:59 PM
tosa west/east should definetley be in the mix up they have a very good line up with two potential state champions zachary miller, and justin folley, I look fwd to them making some noise this year!
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Pheasant 1984 on November 20, 2014, 01:43:45 PM
What school are you talking about Amery?
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: AmerysFinest on November 20, 2014, 02:26:32 PM
I'm referring to Wauwatosa west/east they have a nice line ups and 1 or 2 champions potentially
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Grant Peissig on November 20, 2014, 07:52:33 PM
Quote from: AmerysFinest on November 17, 2014, 02:31:59 PM
tosa west/east should definetley be in the mix up they have a very good line up with two potential state champions zachary miller, and justin folley, I look fwd to them making some noise this year!

I didn't know Folley moved there, he can wrestle with anybody.  I know Miller placed as a Soph.  Was he hurt last year?

The real question is, how does a guy from Amery have the inside scoop on tosa?  Polk County transplant in da big city? :)
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: AmerysFinest on November 20, 2014, 10:49:09 PM
Lol because honestly my family is from the inner city so you might see a couple of bias comments from this guy lol lol but yes miller was hurt he is officially back which is good for that tosa team
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Out of Nowhere on November 21, 2014, 07:35:14 AM
I'm surprised that the team with 6 returning state qualifiers (Cedarburg) hasn't been mentioned at all in this thread.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: CLC FAN on November 21, 2014, 11:28:59 AM
Quote from: Out of Nowhere on November 21, 2014, 07:35:14 AM
I'm surprised that the team with 6 returning state qualifiers (Cedarburg) hasn't been mentioned at all in this thread.

Coach Peissig listed them as honorable mention in his rankings on the very first post of this thread.   ::)

I think either Menomonee Falls or Cedarburg will be the Team State representative for Sectional G this year, but they will be hard-pressed to get past Menomonie in the first round at Team State.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Out of Nowhere on November 21, 2014, 12:20:59 PM
Quote from: CLC FAN on November 21, 2014, 11:28:59 AM
Quote from: Out of Nowhere on November 21, 2014, 07:35:14 AM
I'm surprised that the team with 6 returning state qualifiers (Cedarburg) hasn't been mentioned at all in this thread.

Coach Peissig listed them as honorable mention in his rankings on the very first post of this thread.   ::)

I think either Menomonee Falls or Cedarburg will be the Team State representative for Sectional G this year, but they will be hard-pressed to get past Menomonie in the first round at Team State.
Apparently I'm good at reading.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: determined on November 27, 2014, 02:57:15 PM
I still have a problem with CLC Fan's assessment that the Whitnall/Greendale co-op has a 7% chance of winning its Regional (with Mukwonago at 63% and West Allis Central at 22%).
Whitdale is the team to watch in southeast Wisconsin- if not the team to beat!

In the Sectional, three teams tied last year for the most non-senior placewinners (1st through 4th) with four each.
The teams were: Whitnall, West Allis Central and Greendale.
So Whitdale will now have 8!

Also- Whitnall and Greendale EACH had more non-senior wrestlers in last year's conference lineups than any other Woodland team so Pewaukee is in big trouble too.

Also- Whitnall's JV squad was a monster last year. Check out what they did at the Bay Invitational in late January.

Care to change your prediction?
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: CLC FAN on November 27, 2014, 05:16:05 PM
Quote from: determined on November 27, 2014, 02:57:15 PM
In the Sectional, three teams tied last year for the most non-senior placewinners (1st through 4th) with four each.
The teams were: Whitnall, West Allis Central and Greendale.
So Whitdale will now have 8!

Care to change your prediction?


Whitnall and Greendale also had double placewinners at two weights - 106 and 145.  Since the other teams were limited to one starter per weight class, they would have struggled to match that output!

I will go back and look at how I combined these two teams' starters as far as numbers.  It might change their % chance but I doubt it will make them the favorite in my predictions.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Dizzy on November 27, 2014, 05:45:28 PM
From the looks of their skinfolds not everyone from Greendale came out for the team this year. They are missing a couple of starters including a sectional
placewinner
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: determined on November 27, 2014, 05:52:35 PM
That's going to happen when two strong teams combine.
7 sectional placewinners is still half the lineup- more than double what Mukwonago has coming back.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: boowrestle on November 27, 2014, 06:17:06 PM
Both Greendale and Whitnall have separate fat test rosters listed on track,although there are a few kids that wrestled foe Greendale last yr that are now  listed on Whitnalls list.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aggressive on November 27, 2014, 08:07:23 PM
Greendale was tough and growing. Everyone was back. Why would they co-op?
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: boowrestle on November 27, 2014, 08:13:10 PM
From way it looks on trackwrestling they didnt actually co op,looks to me like a few must of school choiced to whitnall,but people keep refering to it as a co op which it doesnt actually look like.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Ghetto on November 27, 2014, 08:45:07 PM
Whitnall and Greendale are definitely co-oped. Greendale was the team pushing for it. They finished the season with nine kids and they didn't feel they had the numbers to sustain. As a parent of a potential Greendale wrestler, it disappoints me that their high school will not have their own program. Wrestling IMO will die in Greendale eventually.

They'll be tough as heck this year though.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: mike on November 27, 2014, 08:59:23 PM
Quote from: Ghetto on November 27, 2014, 08:45:07 PM
Whitnall and Greendale are definitely co-oped. Greendale was the team pushing for it. They finished the season with nine kids and they didn't feel they had the numbers to sustain. As a parent of a potential Greendale wrestler, it disappoints me that their high school will not have their own program. Wrestling IMO will die in Greendale eventually.

They'll be tough as heck this year though.
Yes as a wrestling person it is always sad when another school doesn't have a wrestling practice in it anymore. I agree that "whitdale"will have a heck of a year and that greendale wrestling is dead. 
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aggressive on November 27, 2014, 09:29:30 PM
Recruiting for wrestling is difficult. Keeping kids out is difficult. The answer can't always be co-oping.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aggressive on November 27, 2014, 09:39:36 PM
This seems to be about artificially building a winner. Did Greendale ever try to co-op with Greenfield? Its a lot closer than Whitnall and has smaller numbers.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aggressive on November 27, 2014, 09:55:48 PM
QuoteIn the Sectional, three teams tied last year for the most non-senior placewinners (1st through 4th) with four each.
The teams were: Whitnall, West Allis Central and Greendale.
So Whitdale will now have 8!

Also- Whitnall and Greendale EACH had more non-senior wrestlers in last year's conference lineups than any other Woodland team so Pewaukee is in big trouble too.

Also- Whitnall's JV squad was a monster last year. Check out what they did at the Bay Invitational in late January.


They EACH had more returners?
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: buc65 on November 27, 2014, 11:43:51 PM
Quote from: aggressive on November 27, 2014, 09:39:36 PM
This seems to be about artificially building a winner. Did Greendale ever try to co-op with Greenfield? Its a lot closer than Whitnall and has smaller numbers.

From what I've heard Whitnall was the choice and Greenfield wasn't considered.  One of the top wrestlers from Greendale is related to a coach from Whitnall.  Like most co-ops they will probably have a season or two of success and then fade out and likely not have any wrestlers from Greendale any longer. 
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: buc65 on November 27, 2014, 11:55:53 PM
Quote from: aggressive on November 27, 2014, 09:55:48 PM
QuoteIn the Sectional, three teams tied last year for the most non-senior placewinners (1st through 4th) with four each.
The teams were: Whitnall, West Allis Central and Greendale.
So Whitdale will now have 8!

Also- Whitnall and Greendale EACH had more non-senior wrestlers in last year's conference lineups than any other Woodland team so Pewaukee is in big trouble too.

Also- Whitnall's JV squad was a monster last year. Check out what they did at the Bay Invitational in late January.


They EACH had more returners?

That's not accurate.

Non-Senior wrestlers from last year conference tournament:
Wauwatosa - 9
Greendale - 9
Whitnall - 8
Greenfield - 8
Pewaukee - 8
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: CLC FAN on November 28, 2014, 07:21:44 AM
Quote from: determined on November 27, 2014, 02:57:15 PM
I still have a problem with CLC Fan's assessment that the Whitnall/Greendale co-op has a 7% chance of winning its Regional (with Mukwonago at 63% and West Allis Central at 22%).
Whitdale is the team to watch in southeast Wisconsin- if not the team to beat!


Care to change your prediction?


So.  Two "Mea culpa"s and a "inappropriate term03?"

I did incorrectly combine Whitnall and Greendale.  I'm not even sure what method I used originally or if I missed the co-op completely, but what I've done now is take the better of each school's returning wrestler at each weight class as my returning starter for Whitdale.  That gives them 12 returning starters from last year's regional who scored a total of 186 points at regionals.  I also made a computational error regarding Mukwonago's points returning.  I had their 6 returning starters bringing back 105 regional points, when in reality they bring back 99 (or 98 - what do you do with a UC deduction?). 

My inappropriate term03 is - why does the WIAA list only 7 teams in this regional?  Division 1 is supposed to be a set-in-stone 128 teams, and it looks like the WIAA only has 127 teams assigned to D1 regionals?!?   From the Tournament Assignments PDF:  "Regional II West Allis Central:  Greenfield, Mukwonago, Muskego, Waterford, West Allis Central, West Allis Nathan Hale, Whitnall-Greendale" 

So, with the caveat that there should - will? - may? be another team besides the 7 listed in this regional, I ran the simulations again.  300 times.  The results:

Mukwonago   (52%) 
West Allis Central  (21%)
Whitdale   (17%)
Muskego  (5%)
Waterford (3%)
West Allis Hale (2%)
Greefield  (<1%)
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aggressive on November 28, 2014, 09:00:02 AM
Another good question is why did the WIAA allow the co-op.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: determined on November 28, 2014, 09:57:39 AM
So Mukwonago has 6 returners who scored 105 points and Whitdale has 12 returners for 186 points. Yet Mukwonago is a 52% favorite and Whitdale is at 17%? You must be taking something else into consideration. I know Mukwonago has a strong winning tradition and Whitnall and Greendale haven't won a Regional in a while, but I think you are going to be wanting to develope a new system after this year.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: CLC FAN on November 28, 2014, 12:11:41 PM
We shall see.  

If you read the thread I do go into pretty great depth about how I get my predictions - which doesn't make them right, it just makes them pretty transparent.  Mukwonago is predicted to have 14 wrestlers in their lineup.  Since 2005, they have had 14 wrestlers in their lineup 9 out of 10 years - including each of the previous 5 years.  So I would predict Mukwonago to be full even if they graduated 14 seniors last year.  I do allow some variation in that - the amount of variation there has historically been for "Perpetually full" teams such as Mukwonago.  By the way, Mukwonago is one of only 12 D1 teams that have been full in each of the past 4 seasons: Bay Port, Holmen, Hudson, Janesville Craig, Kaukauna, Merrill, Menomonee Falls, Milton, Mukwonago, Stoughton, West Allis Central, and West Bend West.  So you could look at it as me rewarding their winning tradition - I am really just putting teams that are perpetually full (last 4 years at least) into a separate category because I can predict them with more accuracy than other schools.  In 4 years, if Whitdale has been full every season, they will be afforded the same courtesy.

I will say, Determined, that you seem to be glossing over the fact that even after taking the best that both programs have to offer, Mukwonago returns a higher quality average starter than Whitdale (admittedly, less quantity of returners, but higher quality).  The returning Mukwonago starters average 16.5 pts/starter returning.  Whitdale averages 15.5.

My get-out-of-jail-free card is of course that if I predict 10 separate teams to each have a 10% chance of winning their regional, mathematically I am not wrong or even surprised if one of them does.  If two or three do, I might majorly overhaul my system.  But 1 out of 10 "10% underdogs" coming through is exactly what is to be expected.  So in the event that Whitdale wins it's regional, you will have the immense satisfaction of proving that you knew which underdog would outperfrom the favorites - but I may remain unconvinced that they should have been the favorite all along.  
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: determined on November 28, 2014, 12:59:39 PM
In a few weeks you'll be calling them the favorite.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aarons23 on November 28, 2014, 01:16:00 PM
Quote from: determined on November 28, 2014, 12:59:39 PM
In a few weeks you'll be calling them the favorite.

Who do they have that you feel will advance onto state?
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: determined on November 28, 2014, 03:23:10 PM
I'd say there are 7 or 8
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Pheasant 1984 on November 28, 2014, 03:51:45 PM
Clc, my son is a senior at Menomonie and they have had a wrestler at every weight for the last 3 years too!
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: CLC FAN on November 28, 2014, 04:10:28 PM
You are right.  I think my criteria may have been 4 years straight
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aarons23 on November 28, 2014, 05:07:13 PM
Quote from: determined on November 28, 2014, 03:23:10 PM
I'd say there are 7 or 8

Who?  Which 7 or 8
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: boowrestle on November 28, 2014, 06:47:37 PM
CLC,my son is a senior at Baraboo and we have had full lineup all of his time there and will again trhis yr so that will make 4yrs in a row for sure but pretty sure it is more than that.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: CLC FAN on November 28, 2014, 08:10:00 PM
Track might have it wrong, but it says 13 at regionals in 2012 for Baraboo.


http://www.trackwrestling.com/predefinedtournaments/VerifyPassword.jsp?tournamentId=35890009
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: CLC FAN on November 28, 2014, 08:12:20 PM
By the way, 12 seems a low number of D1 teams that have been full for the last four years.  If you think you know a team that fits this bill, please verify it on track and post it here.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: CLC FAN on November 29, 2014, 09:05:35 AM
Geez... after some research, I'm down to only 10 D1 schools that have been full the last 4 years:

Bay Port
Holmen
Hudson
Kaukauna
Menomonee Falls
Merrill
Milton
Mukwonago
Stoughton
West Bend West
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: DarkKnight on November 29, 2014, 05:57:35 PM
Quote from: CLC FAN on November 28, 2014, 07:21:44 AM
Quote from: determined on November 27, 2014, 02:57:15 PM
I still have a problem with CLC Fan's assessment that the Whitnall/Greendale co-op has a 7% chance of winning its Regional (with Mukwonago at 63% and West Allis Central at 22%).
Whitdale is the team to watch in southeast Wisconsin- if not the team to beat!


Care to change your prediction?


So.  Two "Mea culpa"s and a "WTH?"

I did incorrectly combine Whitnall and Greendale.  I'm not even sure what method I used originally or if I missed the co-op completely, but what I've done now is take the better of each school's returning wrestler at each weight class as my returning starter for Whitdale.  That gives them 12 returning starters from last year's regional who scored a total of 186 points at regionals.  I also made a computational error regarding Mukwonago's points returning.  I had their 6 returning starters bringing back 105 regional points, when in reality they bring back 99 (or 98 - what do you do with a UC deduction?). 

My WTH is - why does the WIAA list only 7 teams in this regional?  Division 1 is supposed to be a set-in-stone 128 teams, and it looks like the WIAA only has 127 teams assigned to D1 regionals?!?   From the Tournament Assignments PDF:  "Regional II West Allis Central:  Greenfield, Mukwonago, Muskego, Waterford, West Allis Central, West Allis Nathan Hale, Whitnall-Greendale" 

So, with the caveat that there should - will? - may? be another team besides the 7 listed in this regional, I ran the simulations again.  300 times.  The results:

Mukwonago   (52%) 
West Allis Central  (21%)
Whitdale   (17%)
Muskego  (5%)
Waterford (3%)
West Allis Hale (2%)
Greefield  (<1%)


With the co -op, it went down one.... either they didn't that into consideration, Or they couldn't rationalize moving anyone up to D1 from D2.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Ghetto on November 29, 2014, 06:09:29 PM
Greendale and Whitnall were listed separately for a long time, maybe up until a month ago. Maybe they just didn't want to change it and upset the apple cart.

Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: MarkK on December 01, 2014, 06:40:46 AM
Quote from: CLC FAN on November 29, 2014, 09:05:35 AM
Geez... after some research, I'm down to only 10 D1 schools that have been full the last 4 years:

Bay Port
Holmen
Hudson
Kaukauna
Menomonee Falls
Merrill
Milton
Mukwonago
Stoughton
West Bend West

How exaustive was that?  Those are dismal numbers.  I wonder how div 2 and 3 have been?
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: CLC FAN on December 01, 2014, 07:26:05 AM
Quote from: MarkK on December 01, 2014, 06:40:46 AM
How exaustive was that?  Those are dismal numbers.  I wonder how div 2 and 3 have been?

For D1, I took every team that was full last year and backed them up to 2013 - were they still full?  If yes, I backed them up to 2012, then backed them up to 2011.


For D2, there are 10 teams who fit the bill:

Amery
Ellsworth
Freedom
Lodi
Luxemburg-Casco
Oconto Falls
Pewaukee (who I guess is now D1)
Tomahawk
Two Rivers
Wittenberg-Birnamwood

Anybody else notice a Sectional B slant to those numbers???  Also, this was my summer research - which might be suspect.  If you have a team you think qualifies, please verify it on trackwrestling and post it here.



For D3 only 7 teams have been full the last 4 years:

Aquinas
Bonduel
Boyceville
Clear Lake
Oostburg (D2 now though)
Random Lake
Spring Valley/Elmwood

For those of you wondering about Coleman - team state champ 3 of the last 4 years - they had 13 at regionals in 2011.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: CLC FAN on December 01, 2014, 07:30:58 AM
And yes MarkK, those are dismal numbers - especially at D1.  If you want this thread to get hijacked just mention the idea that just maybe having 14 non-interchangeable starters in a high school sport is too many!
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: DarkKnight on December 01, 2014, 07:39:18 PM
Quote from: CLC FAN on December 01, 2014, 07:26:05 AM
Quote from: MarkK on December 01, 2014, 06:40:46 AM
How exaustive was that?  Those are dismal numbers.  I wonder how div 2 and 3 have been?

For D1, I took every team that was full last year and backed them up to 2013 - were they still full?  If yes, I backed them up to 2012, then backed them up to 2011.


For D2, there are 10 teams who fit the bill:

Amery
Ellsworth
Freedom
Lodi
Luxemburg-Casco
Oconto Falls
Pewaukee (who I guess is now D1)
Tomahawk
Two Rivers
Wittenberg-Birnamwood

Anybody else notice a Sectional B slant to those numbers???  Also, this was my summer research - which might be suspect.  If you have a team you think qualifies, please verify it on trackwrestling and post it here.



For D3 only 7 teams have been full the last 4 years:

Aquinas
Bonduel
Boyceville
Clear Lake
Oostburg (D2 now though)
Random Lake
Spring Valley/Elmwood

For those of you wondering about Coleman - team state champ 3 of the last 4 years - they had 13 at regionals in 2011.

Coleman still had a full team, i believe someone was sick or injured.  i dont think your research takes this into account, i'm sure there are more teams that have been full most of the past 4 + years. But you do good research
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: CLC FAN on December 01, 2014, 10:19:58 PM
You are correct in that I am only counting teams that were full for regionals.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Pheasant 1984 on December 01, 2014, 10:38:55 PM
You should add Menomonie to your list because they had a full lineup 4 years ago but 1 wrestler was over weight and was unable to make it in time!
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: MarkK on December 01, 2014, 11:50:38 PM
Now if I was going to hijack it I would have mentioned JHI.   ::)
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Dale Einerson on December 02, 2014, 07:35:04 AM
JHI and matside weigh ins!  Good ideas Mark!
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: determined on December 05, 2014, 12:48:05 PM
Whitnall 78   Oakfield 0

Pretty good start!

Whitnall-Greendale Wrestlers Open Season With Shutout
The initial outing for the new Whitnall-Greendale wrestling co-op couldn't be considered a real test, but the outcome couldn't have been much better.

The team posted a 78-0 victory over Oakfield in the 2014-15 season opener at the Whitnall gym.


The visitors arrived from Fond du Lac County with only six wrestlers, so the outcome was never in doubt. Four of the six were inexperienced underclassmen, but the other two–co-captains Matt Gross and Ryan Easterson–were sectional qualifiers and tested their W-G counterparts.

W-G's Anthony Senthavisouk (126) overcame leg cramps to score an 11-3 major decision over Gross, and teammate Dylan Kellner (138) shut out Easterson, 5-0.

Josh Rinka (106) started the evening off with a second period pin. Tommy Welch (132) and Blake Leslie (145) posted first period pins for the home team, and Nick Monty (152) added a 20-5 technical fall.

The remaining points resulted from Oakfield forfeits to Nathan Hensley (113), Ethan Latus (120), Jake Feinas (160), Ryan Olson (170), Chase Kendall (182), Andy Rohde (195), Anthony Rieth (220) and Alex Rohde (285).

Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: kmoc33 on December 05, 2014, 02:06:19 PM
Wow! Thanks for the update on an 8 forfeited matches dual meet. They moved to the top of the state in my book. 
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: DocWrestling on December 05, 2014, 02:51:29 PM
LOL!   Why was this dual scheduled?  Oakfield is one of the smallest High schools in the state with no wrestling tradition and Whitnall and Greendale are combined?
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: DarkKnight on December 05, 2014, 06:43:20 PM
Well he is a little excited, He finally has a good team to cheer for and follow.

How good they are, we'll find out when they meet a good team....

Mr. Determined, when do they first wrestle a good team?
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aspan43 on December 06, 2014, 08:14:58 AM
The same night Whitdale wrestled a school 1/12 their size, their conference foe Pewaukee took on Menomonee Falls, a school twice their size and a state qualifier last year.  Who do you think got better on Thursday night?
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: determined on December 06, 2014, 08:25:18 AM
Today against West Allis Central- regional opponent- at East Troy Duals. The truth will be revealed.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: mike on December 06, 2014, 08:36:36 AM
Quote from: determined on December 05, 2014, 12:48:05 PM
Whitnall 78   Oakfield 0

Pretty good start!

Whitnall-Greendale Wrestlers Open Season With Shutout
The initial outing for the new Whitnall-Greendale wrestling co-op couldn't be considered a real test, but the outcome couldn't have been much better.

The team posted a 78-0 victory over Oakfield in the 2014-15 season opener at the Whitnall gym.


The visitors arrived from Fond du Lac County with only six wrestlers, so the outcome was never in doubt. Four of the six were inexperienced underclassmen, but the other two–co-captains Matt Gross and Ryan Easterson–were sectional qualifiers and tested their W-G counterparts.

W-G's Anthony Senthavisouk (126) overcame leg cramps to score an 11-3 major decision over Gross, and teammate Dylan Kellner (138) shut out Easterson, 5-0.

Josh Rinka (106) started the evening off with a second period pin. Tommy Welch (132) and Blake Leslie (145) posted first period pins for the home team, and Nick Monty (152) added a 20-5 technical fall.

The remaining points resulted from Oakfield forfeits to Nathan Hensley (113), Ethan Latus (120), Jake Feinas (160), Ryan Olson (170), Chase Kendall (182), Andy Rohde (195), Anthony Rieth (220) and Alex Rohde (285).


ironic that this newly formed  power alliance  started their "new era" (as they call it ::) ) vs a school that probably really needs a co-op
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: CLC FAN on December 07, 2014, 04:49:32 AM
Quote from: determined on December 06, 2014, 08:25:18 AM
Today against West Allis Central- regional opponent- at East Troy Duals. The truth will be revealed.

You sure are determined.  Congrats to Whitdale on the win.  Should be a good battle between them and West Allis Central all year long, along with Mukwonago.  For those not seeking to look it up on track, Whitdale won the dual 34-31, despite West Allis Central winning 8 of 14 matchups.

And Mr. Determined, I think the truth as far as this thread is concerned will be revealed on February 14th
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: determined on December 07, 2014, 10:45:47 AM
I still think you underestimate this team. Central needed an injury default to keep it close.  A better example was that Central beat Harvard 31-30 and Whitdale beat them 47-24.
There was a perfect mix of 7 Whitnall kids and 7 Greendale kids in the varsity lineup and had a reserve team and a jv team at other tournaments on the same day. So depth is never going to be an issue.
Whitdale also enters mostly dual tournaments so they get tons of matches for each kid. Whitdale will only get better....

Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aarons23 on December 07, 2014, 10:52:38 AM
Quote from: determined on December 07, 2014, 10:45:47 AM
I still think you underestimate this team. Central needed an injury default to keep it close.  A better example was that Central beat Harvard 31-30 and Whitdale beat them 47-24.
There was a perfect mix of 7 Whitnall kids and 7 Greendale kids in the varsity lineup and had a reserve team and a jv team at other tournaments on the same day. So depth is never going to be an issue.
Whitdale also enters mostly dual tournaments so they get tons of matches for each kid. Whitdale will only get better....



With all those team reserve and JV teams it doesn't sound like there should be a coop....just maybe this is a miss use of a system that was put in place to help struggling schools field teams....not make power houses as determined seems to think his team is.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aggressive on December 07, 2014, 11:06:53 AM
I 100% agree.  Tons of kids and 7 kids from each team on the varsity. Each team could stand alone. Sad.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aspan43 on December 07, 2014, 11:39:34 AM
Neither of them could beat Pewaukee in conference by themselves so they made up a sob story about low numbers to justify a co-op. 
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: determined on December 07, 2014, 12:29:12 PM
A number of Whitnall kids didn't come back. One of best Greendale kids didn't come out this year either.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aarons23 on December 07, 2014, 12:47:26 PM
Many teams loose kids every year.....doesn't mean they need to coop....with your losses you still fielded a varsity, varsity reserve and a JV......according to track you have 46 wrestlers......most teams in WIAA have less than thirty......sure seems an inappropriate use of a coop.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: DocWrestling on December 07, 2014, 01:01:13 PM
Can co-ops occur between any two schools that agree or does the WIAA have to approve?  I could see more schools going this route to share expenses.  Almost creating wrestling schools.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Fan1 on December 07, 2014, 01:48:05 PM
Very sad it has come to this in Division 1 but it is obviously easier for an always competitive team like Whitnall to take that next step adding so many talented Greendale wrestlers to its lineup.  This is a slippery slope I fear as the WIAA requirements for a co-op seem to be more concerned with a board approval (I guess it is all about who you know) and not how many wrestlers the co-op will have.  How long until we see more schools taking advantage of this just trying to build super teams or trying to find cost savings by having two school districts pay for "one team". 

The WIAA should take a hard look at those requirements in my opinion before this gets out of control. 
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Ghetto on December 07, 2014, 03:54:39 PM
Preface: I am in no way defending the co-op between Greendale and Whitnall. I've gone on record with their AD with my disapproval.

Whitnall body fats its powerlifters because of a weight cutting issue that team had in the past. Their numbers are inflated if you look at that.

The co-op reserve team scored like 15 points at the Nicolet Invite, which was a scramble.

Which Greendale kid didn't go out?
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: boowrestle on December 07, 2014, 04:07:44 PM
Div1 size schools thinking that they need to co-op ???something dont seem right here??
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aggressive on December 07, 2014, 04:15:35 PM
And a mix of those reserves, some jv and some varsity is what each team would look like. they would have the same challenges as every other program and they would have to develop average wrestlers. What is being taught to kids on a team like this? Find a way around the rules. Do some shady deal so your only as strong as your strongest link
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: mike on December 07, 2014, 05:03:12 PM
As usual Whitnall would have ben a strong program this year but would have been few good wrestlers short of winning a conference title or making it to team state.  With the addition of Greendale they could "accomplish" both.  As they celebrate these possible "accomplishments" they will know they killed Greendale wrestling and will never know if they could have done it themselves.  Sad
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: buc65 on December 07, 2014, 06:28:58 PM
Quote from: Ghetto on December 07, 2014, 03:54:39 PM
Preface: I am in no way defending the co-op between Greendale and Whitnall. I've gone on record with their AD with my disapproval.

Whitnall body fats its powerlifters because of a weight cutting issue that team had in the past. Their numbers are inflated if you look at that.

The co-op reserve team scored like 15 points at the Nicolet Invite, which was a scramble.

Which Greendale kid didn't go out?

Kennedy Steinberg - 3rd place at sectionals last year
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aspan43 on December 07, 2014, 07:35:15 PM
Quote from: mike on December 07, 2014, 05:03:12 PM
As usual Whitnall would have ben a strong program this year but would have been few good wrestlers short of winning a conference title or making it to team state.  With the addition of Greendale they could "accomplish" both.  As they celebrate these possible "accomplishments" they will know they killed Greendale wrestling and will never know if they could have done it themselves.  Sad

If they do win it, it won't be them I'll be sad for.  I'll be sad for the 2nd place team that would have won it legit.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: mike on December 07, 2014, 08:10:35 PM
http://www.whitwrestle.com/?p=316

Congrats
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Dizzy on December 07, 2014, 09:27:17 PM
Okay enough of the Whitnall bashing. The Greendale coach approached Whitnall at the end of last year about the possibility of a co-op. He said whatever he was doing didn't seem to be working because their numbers were dropping rapidly and they were down to 8 kids. His biggest concern was that he had only 1 freshmen and 1 sophomore and only 2 8th graders at the middle school. He was afraid the program would possibly drop in another year. He said it was also hard on some kids that only had 1 kid within 30 pounds of them to practice with. We said we would try to help restore a fine wrestling tradition at Greendale. After the co=op was approved we worked very hard at trying to build up their numbers and welcome them in with work over the Summer and in the Fall. We tried contacting middle school kids to come out and I am very glad that currently there are 13-14 high school kids out.
Co=ops are set up as 2 year contracts. The goal is to try to get their numbers back up to 20 and then they can go back on their own at their own school. We are having a home meet at Greendale, having it be middle school night and introduce their middle school team.  We have invited Greendale alum and former 2 time Olympian Jim Gruenwald back for the meet to do the coin toss and talk to the teams. Hopefully having some success and having these events along with getting kids plenty of opportunities to wrestle will bring the numbers back up.
No, we were not totally stupid and knew they had some talent knowing that adding 6 seniors to the team would help the line-up, but getting some wins this year would also help in recruiting for the future before they drop down to 2-3 kids and the co-op last forever. There are some growing pains but so far the kids have meshed well, are hanging together outside the room, and I think it has been good for the kids and for the sport. Unfortunately, a sectional place winner chose not to come out but I think we have talked some into coming out that would not have otherwise.
The rules don't say one team has to suck or that you can only have 3-4 guys from one school participate. How can they go back on their own unless we try to get their numbers up, have fun and wrestle plenty of matches???? That's the only way I can think of to end a successful co-op. But thinking that adding 3 sectional qualifiers to your line-up is going to automatically advance you to team state ahead of programs like Pewaukee, Mukwonago, West Allis Central, etc. is pretty ridiculous

I don't think it is sad at all, I think it is good for the sport. IMO
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aarons23 on December 07, 2014, 09:33:03 PM
How many wrestlers are currently from Greendale?
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: mike on December 07, 2014, 09:38:42 PM
Quote from: Dizzy on December 07, 2014, 09:27:17 PM
Okay enough of the Whitnall bashing. The Greendale coach approached Whitnall at the end of last year about the possibility of a co-op. He said whatever he was doing didn't seem to be working because their numbers were dropping rapidly and they were down to 8 kids. His biggest concern was that he had only 1 freshmen and 1 sophomore and only 2 8th graders at the middle school. He was afraid the program would possibly drop in another year. He said it was also hard on some kids that only had 1 kid within 30 pounds of them to practice with. We said we would try to help restore a fine wrestling tradition at Greendale. After the co=op was approved we worked very hard at trying to build up their numbers and welcome them in with work over the Summer and in the Fall. We tried contacting middle school kids to come out and I am very glad that currently there are 13-14 high school kids out.
Co=ops are set up as 2 year contracts. The goal is to try to get their numbers back up to 20 and then they can go back on their own at their own school. We are having a home meet at Greendale, having it be middle school night and introduce their middle school team.  We have invited Greendale alum and former 2 time Olympian Jim Gruenwald back for the meet to do the coin toss and talk to the teams. Hopefully having some success and having these events along with getting kids plenty of opportunities to wrestle will bring the numbers back up.
No, we were not totally stupid and knew they had some talent knowing that adding 6 seniors to the team would help the line-up, but getting some wins this year would also help in recruiting for the future before they drop down to 2-3 kids and the co-op last forever. There are some growing pains but so far the kids have meshed well, are hanging together outside the room, and I think it has been good for the kids and for the sport. Unfortunately, a sectional place winner chose not to come out but I think we have talked some into coming out that would not have otherwise.
The rules don't say one team has to suck or that you can only have 3-4 guys from one school participate. How can they go back on their own unless we try to get their numbers up, have fun and wrestle plenty of matches???? That's the only way I can think of to end a successful co-op. But thinking that adding 3 sectional qualifiers to your line-up is going to automatically advance you to team state ahead of programs like Pewaukee, Mukwonago, West Allis Central, etc. is pretty ridiculous

I don't think it is sad at all, I think it is good for the sport. IMO
why wasn't greenfield approached as they are closer and have smaller numbers?  A very fair question
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Blast Double on December 07, 2014, 09:52:08 PM
Mike you should check your numbers. Greenfield has 40 on their skin fold roster and Whitdale has 45. With 12 being from Greendale. So that would put Whitnall at 33.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: boowrestle on December 07, 2014, 09:53:31 PM
Does anybody know if this new co_op team will be attending Spash duals this yr,only asking because greendale was there last yr.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Blast Double on December 07, 2014, 09:56:15 PM
No Boo they will not be there.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aggressive on December 07, 2014, 10:52:30 PM
Quote from: buc65 on November 27, 2014, 11:43:51 PM
From what I've heard Whitnall was the choice and Greenfield wasn't considered.  One of the top wrestlers from Greendale is related to a coach from Whitnall.    

What role did this play?

And while Whitdale is doing damage control now, make sure you don't downplay the impact Greendale is having on that team.

I've found a few things. Three Greendale wrestlers who came within one match of reaching the Sectional Final are on the current team (minus the one who chose not to return). They aren't just qualifiers. I think an addition like that is enough for many teams to become very competitive.

The addition of Greendale certainly had a lot to do with the wins over West Allis Central and Harvard on Saturday. A team Whitnall hadn't beaten until co-oping according to the whitnall website. Trackwrestling shows that in the win over Central Greendale wrestlers scored two pins, won a major decision, lost a minor decision and had an injury default. That is a major role in a 34-31 win. Against Harvard, 4 of 5 Greendale wrestlers won.

The strength of the practice room is another advantage. Guys who were wrestling against each other in the conference finals are now wrestling every day in the practice room. Regular teams are only allowed one scrimmage on one day to work with other teams. Whitdale gets to do it all year.


Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: mike on December 08, 2014, 06:32:44 AM
Quote from: Blast Double on December 07, 2014, 09:52:08 PM
Mike you should check your numbers. Greenfield has 40 on their skin fold roster and Whitdale has 45. With 12 being from Greendale. So that would put Whitnall at 33.

Ok, why wasn't greenfield approached as they are closer and have similar numbers as whitnal?
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: bigG on December 08, 2014, 08:04:21 AM
Quote from: aggressive on December 07, 2014, 10:52:30 PM
Quote from: buc65 on November 27, 2014, 11:43:51 PM
From what I've heard Whitnall was the choice and Greenfield wasn't considered.  One of the top wrestlers from Greendale is related to a coach from Whitnall.    

What role did this play?

And while Whitdale is doing damage control now, make sure you don't downplay the impact Greendale is having on that team.

I've found a few things. Three Greendale wrestlers who came within one match of reaching the Sectional Final are on the current team (minus the one who chose not to return). They aren't just qualifiers. I think an addition like that is enough for many teams to become very competitive.

The addition of Greendale certainly had a lot to do with the wins over West Allis Central and Harvard on Saturday. A team Whitnall hadn't beaten until co-oping according to the whitnall website. Trackwrestling shows that in the win over Central Greendale wrestlers scored two pins, won a major decision, lost a minor decision and had an injury default. That is a major role in a 34-31 win. Against Harvard, 4 of 5 Greendale wrestlers won.

The strength of the practice room is another advantage. Guys who were wrestling against each other in the conference finals are now wrestling every day in the practice room. Regular teams are only allowed one scrimmage on one day to work with other teams. Whitdale gets to do it all year.




Harvard=Hartland or what?
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Out of Nowhere on December 08, 2014, 08:16:09 AM
I miss the days we spent all our time discussing who should be ranked where and complaining about why the rankings aren't out yet instead of bashing on a program.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Blast Double on December 08, 2014, 08:34:33 AM
Big G Harvard, IL is the school they are talking about.

Out of Nowhere i completely agree with you.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aggressive on December 08, 2014, 08:48:36 AM
You mean two programs

Let's not forget that what we are talking about here is what appears to be two D1 schools that could each field competitive teams that plotted to unfairly compete against single schools throughout the year

Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Out of Nowhere on December 08, 2014, 09:38:43 AM
Quote from: aggressive on December 08, 2014, 08:48:36 AM
You mean two programs

Let's not forget that what we are talking about here is what appears to be two D1 schools that could each field competitive teams that plotted to unfairly compete against single schools throughout the year



No, I meant program, singular.  It is one program that is having success so far and there is nothing we can do to change that right now.  In two years time when their coop agreement ends I hope that Greendale has had more wrestlers come out and can once again operate as their own program.  Until then I choose to support the decision in the hopes that they can get to a point where they can have their own team.


As far as this thread is actually concerned (you know...rankings of D1 teams) I know that there was a heck of a tournament between two teams mentioned in the first post (Cedarburg & Burlington).  Burlington pulling out the win by 12 points in a day filled with some great matches.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Ghetto on December 08, 2014, 09:59:21 AM
I met with Coach LaPlante (the coach at Greendale), because I was upset about the co-op. It was played in the media as saving Greendale money. That made me angry, as I believe there has never been a "back end" of the co-op that has actually gone back to having a sustainable stand alone program. I offered to pay for the program if money was the issue. My son is a 5th grader in Greendale, and I want what I believe he deserves, to wrestle in front of his friends at his home school. A feeling of pride in his school because he competes for it. I do not believe he will get that in a co-op.

Coach LaPlante said that he approached Whitnall. He didn't say why them specifically, but it's my belief that he wanted to be with an experienced staff that has had consistent high numbers and could use their strategies to build his own program. Greenfield had Coach Ottow, who has been around wrestling, but has not been a head coach long.

Yes Nathan Hensley is Craig Austin's nephew.

At the end of the day Greendale doesn't have wrestling right now. If there are no home duals, then the student body won't know it exists. That's my issue. How do you build a program when it's not even visible within the school?

The pieces are in place to build that program. Gregg Lewis, the head coach at Parkside, is running the kids club. My son I believe is the oldest kid in the program, which doesn't bode well for numbers down the road. (There is no way of knowing if this is in correlation with the co-op, and I'm not trying to say that). Kerry Johnson is the middle school coach. He was successful at Waukesha North back in the day, and most importantly, he's a great guy with the right demeanor for middle school coaching. He told me that he had over 20 kids in his middle school room.

It is my belief that you build from within, so I disagree with the way they are doing things. However, that isn't my call. I truly hope it works, because my son, and others in the Greendale community, are directly affected by it.

Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aggressive on December 08, 2014, 10:33:18 AM
And every program they unfairly steal victories and championships from is affected by it also.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Blast Double on December 08, 2014, 10:38:48 AM
Here is an honest question for you guys.  If Greendale and Greenfield would have formed a co op would you even care?  I am guessing the answer is no because the team would not be as strong as it is for WhitDale.  But the reality of the situation is that no matter who Greendale formed a co op with they would make that team better.  I also feel that whoever they joined up with would be an immediate threat for the conference title.  

Do we all forget that Greendale had already been a co op for a number of years before last year?  Greendale was a co op with Thomas More.  I am not sure for how long?  When the last kid from Thomas More graduated they decided to end the co op and go at it alone.  Then the next season just like the previous 4 seasons they were unable to fill the roster.  Every year there would be some hope because around 25 wrestlers would start the season.  Then at the end of the season they would have 8-11 competing.  

Now everyone will want to argue that Greendale should have tried to build the program instead of "buying" a program.  Back in 2010-11 this program was as good as dead.  In fact the year before that the middle school tried to dump the wrestling program and the feeling was that the High School was next.  But the parents of the middle school kids decided they needed to fight and try and keep the program alive.  They paid extra fees just so they could keep the team alive.  They had a new middle school coach who was very passionate that they believed in.  That year the middle school had some decent numbers (I do not remember what they were). The High School on the other hand started with 9 kids on the roster and had 4 wrestlers compete at Regionals.  The next season the coach that the parents believed in at the middle school took over at the high school.  He was pushing hard to get kids to join the wrestling team.  This was no easy task as he was not a teacher at the school.  Besides this he was able to get kids to at least step foot in the room.  For the next 3 years he had anywhere from 28-33 kids start the season.  Everyone of those seasons they had 8-11 kids at the end.  The middle school numbers continue to decline as I think last year they had 7 or 8 kids.  Coach La Plante has done his best to try and get the program back at Greendale.  I can tell you that it was not from a lack of passion that it didn't work out.  I feel that he just had enough of banging his head against a wall.  So this was the last ditch effort to try one last thing and go down swinging.  

So with that history lesson out of the way lets attempt to step into the mind of a coach trying to build a program.  If I were the coach of a team in the Woodland conference and I was trying to figure out how to rebuild a program who would be the first people I would talk to?  Pewaukee, Tosa, and Whitnall.  While talking with these coaches and asking for their advice you start to build a relationship with them.  They become somewhat of a mentor for you.  And while you are talking with the coaches usually your wrestlers will be lingering around and they will start to grow relationships with the other teams wrestlers.  So as these relationships are built over the course of the years and now you decide to look at where to turn when you feel like there is nowhere else to go, who do you turn to?  Would you ask a school who you have been talking with that has helped you over the years?  Would you seek out a school where you know the wrestlers get along with the other kids already on the team very well?  Also would you look at a school with a coaching staff where you feel you would fit in with the other coaches also?  The answer to all of these questions is yes you would.  You would want to put the kids that you coach and care about in an environment where you feel that they would also be somewhat comfortable and have good relationships with the other athletes.  You would also want your kids to thrive and continue to have success.  

I personally think that the approach the two schools are taking is an out of the box way of thinking on a way to possibly revive a program.  If the intentions of the co op are truly to try and rebuild the Greendale program why can't we as a wrestling community at least give it a shot?  I see people on here all the time asking what is wrong with the sport and what can we do to try and save it?  I am not saying that this is a sure fire way to save a program but I do feel that Greendale is at a crossroads and is out of options?  They are fighting an uphill battle with a school and school district that cares about Football, Basketball, and Baseball.  All the while the Football coach does not help promote the wrestling program amongst his players.  

I say who cares about the co op and lets see if we can actually rebuild a program.  If this somehow becomes a success story and a way for others schools to look at reviving a program I will be as shocked as anyone.  But to come on here and bash the schools for trying something new and for thinking outside the box I think is weak!!  Take a step back and look at the big picture for a minute.  Ultimately we are all in this together for the future of the sport.    
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Ghetto on December 08, 2014, 10:49:13 AM
My issue isn't with Whitnall. Craig Austin and I have been friends for 25 years. While short term it makes Whitnall a great team, if nothing is coming up the pipeline, it goes back to status quo.

I agree with the administration not caring about wrestling. I said so in my email to the AD at Greendale. His answer was that he had not been to a wrestling meet only because he took the job in January. Of course regionals, etc. is in February, but that was his answer.

Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: boowrestle on December 08, 2014, 10:51:17 AM
I think where most have a problem with this co-op is that most feel myself included is that a program that has 30plus kids on their team should not be co-op with anybody.I always thought that co-oping was a option for 2 programs with low #s co-op in order to improve overall #s.jmo.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: DocWrestling on December 08, 2014, 11:20:25 AM
The problem is that the money Greendale budgeted each year to the wrestling program is gone now even though I am sure they are pay Whitnall a small fee.

It is so tough to go back and ask them to expand their budget again in these tight times.  It is a very tiny small percentage that go to co-op and actually get program back.

The history given of the situation is really no different than what is going on at 100 other schools in this state
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aggressive on December 08, 2014, 11:28:57 AM
It was said before that Greendale had more returning wrestlers to their conference tourney lineup than any team in the conference.

Blast Double, you wouldn't happen to be related to the Whitnall coach and that top Greendale wrestler, would you? I'm guessing a person in this situation may have had a giant hand in pushing the Greendale A.D. to do his bidding instead of sticking with his own team. What would someone in this position care about the other teams and the individual Whitnall wrestlers that this decision impacts, right?

The defense people are coming up with now for this co-op is just a big cover-up for their initial intentions.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Blast Double on December 08, 2014, 11:33:08 AM
Quote from: DocWrestling link=topic=44851.msg562106#msg562106 date=1418059225
The history given of the situation is really no different than what is going on at 100 other schools in this state
/quote]

I was not implying that the history was different than anyone else's.  I was just heading off the argument that no effort was ever made to try and rebuild the program.

Quote from: boowrestle on December 08, 2014, 10:51:17 AM
I think where most have a problem with this co-op is that most feel myself included is that a program that has 30plus kids on their team should not be co-op with anybody.I always thought that co-oping was a option for 2 programs with low #s co-op in order to improve overall #s.jmo.

Is this an issue then that needs to be dealt with by the WIAA?  Should there be a rule on the amount of wrestlers you need to be a stand alone program?  If you are in a co op and that number is reached by both schools should you have to go alone?  Also who else would be an option then for Greendale to co op with?  If 30 would be the cutoff how far out can they go, distance wise, before it is a dead issue?  Greenfield is closer by 2 miles but has larger numbers than Whitnall?  Why does everyone argue that Greenfield should have been the obvious choice if the driving force behind the co op is numbers?  IMO it is because people feel that the team would not have been as strong.  For the ones that are arguing about Greenfield being closer what about when Thomas More was the co op partner?  Why was there never a word arguing that they should not have been together?  
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Blast Double on December 08, 2014, 11:44:54 AM
Quote from: aggressive on December 08, 2014, 11:28:57 AM
It was said before that Greendale had more returning wrestlers to their conference tourney lineup than any team in the conference.

Blast Double, you wouldn't happen to be related to the Whitnall coach and that top Greendale wrestler, would you? I'm guessing a person in this situation may have had a giant hand in pushing the Greendale A.D. to do his bidding instead of sticking with his own team. What would someone in this position care about the other teams and the individual Whitnall wrestlers that this decision impacts, right?

The defense people are coming up with now for this co-op is just a big cover-up for their initial intentions.


Aggressive if you remember correctly your numbers on the returning wrestlers were wrong? 

Tosa - 9
Greendale, Pewaukee, Whitnall, and Greenfield - 8
South Milwaukee - 7
Pius - 6
New Berlin - 5
Cudahy - 3

Just because I am related by marriage to a coach does not mean that I had a hand in anything?  I have never had a conversation with our new AD about anything let alone trying to get him to co op with another program.  And I have no idea what you are talking about with why I care about the individual Whitnall wrestlers?  If it is the fact that my son has been friends with some of those boys before this year then yes I care about them.  As I care about his friends that go to other schools such as Pewaukee!!  You are obviously someone who likes to try and stir the pot and only cares about wins and losses.  If you knew anything about me you would quickly realize that I am all for the kids.  All of this nonsense about bashing schools and trying to look for a conspiracy is crazy!! 
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Pheasant 1984 on December 08, 2014, 11:49:27 AM
I thought this was a pre season ranking thread! :o
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aggressive on December 08, 2014, 12:08:47 PM
2014 Woodland Conference Tournament:
Greendale
106   Hensley, Nathan   9      
120   Welch, Thomas   11   
132   Jankowski, Chris   11      
138   Tabat, Logan   9      
145   Martinson, Eric   11   
152   Steinberg, Ken   10   
160   Feinas, Jake   11   
170   Kendall, Chase   10   
182   Rohde, Andy   11   

That's 9.  With a little recruiting and a few incoming freshmen, which you have, you had enough for a decent team.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Blast Double on December 08, 2014, 12:12:54 PM
Quote from: aggressive on December 08, 2014, 12:08:47 PM
2014 Woodland Conference Tournament:
Greendale
106   Hensley, Nathan   9      
120   Welch, Thomas   11   
132   Jankowski, Chris   11      
138   Tabat, Logan   9      
145   Martinson, Eric   11   
152   Steinberg, Ken   10   
160   Feinas, Jake   11   
170   Kendall, Chase   10   
182   Rohde, Andy   11   

That's 9.  With a little recruiting and a few incoming freshmen, which you have, you had enough for a decent team.

In order to be a returning wrestler you have to actually be on the team correct?  Both Logan Tabat and Kennedy Steinberg are not wrestling this year.  So I guess that drops our number down to 7.  Thanks for catching my error!!
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: HMsDad on December 08, 2014, 12:25:25 PM
So about them rankings............ ???
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aggressive on December 08, 2014, 12:33:02 PM
I can either say "that happens to every team" like one past poster or I can say "that's the impact a co-op has" like another.
You can choose. 
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: tom37 on December 08, 2014, 01:23:02 PM
If people are concerned about making sure that a co-op is being done for the long term success of a program and not just a short term fix to make a run for a championship. Then it is a simple solve.  All members of a co-op team can compete for individual titles, but not team championships at conference, regionals, sectionals, and state for the first 2 years of the co-op. If the reason for the co-op is for the good of the kids and program then this restriction shouldn't matter.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aggressive on December 08, 2014, 01:54:30 PM
Tom37,  that is BRILLIANT.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: bkraus on December 08, 2014, 02:10:25 PM
I have been that coach of a struggling program that reached out and made a co-op.  I used to be the head coach at NB Eisenhower and was one of the players in the NB schools deciding to co-op wrestling.  At that time West had a sustainable program. They very well might still on their own.  At Ike, I would get 20+ kids to fat test and come out for the first few weeks.  But they tended to quit for one reason or another, and for the viability of keeping wrestling an option for Ike students, I had to search out a co-op.  I would have 8-10 to end the season, and most would not be varsity caliber.  It just was lucky for me that I was in a two high school district and the school board obviously saw the cost savings of only running one program.  new Berlin instantly became a player in the Woodland after they combined for a year or two.  Now they have a sustainable program and things are good for New Berlin wrestling.  Whether I am for this co-op or not is irrelevant.  But one thing I think people need to stop saying is it had anything to do with a kid wanting to wrestle for his uncle.  He was only a freshmen last year.  if he wanted to wrestle for his uncle, he could have open enrolled and not been penalized for the school switch.  Hopefully this will help Greendale restore numbers.  I hope they wrestle just as many matches, if not more at GHS to promote the program there. 
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Blast Double on December 08, 2014, 02:23:13 PM
Quote from: tom37 on December 08, 2014, 01:23:02 PM
If people are concerned about making sure that a co-op is being done for the long term success of a program and not just a short term fix to make a run for a championship. Then it is a simple solve.  All members of a co-op team can compete for individual titles, but not team championships at conference, regionals, sectionals, and state for the first 2 years of the co-op. If the reason for the co-op is for the good of the kids and program then this restriction shouldn't matter.

I think that would be a good idea for the WIAA to consider putting into the rules of a co op. 
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: ElectricGuy on December 08, 2014, 02:41:42 PM
Rankings - Boyz!  Rankings!

:)

Any surprise teams from this past week?  Maybe we should start a new thread.........

I was impressed with Elkhorn added some new quality kids and saw improvements at some of their existing. IMO

Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: shouldvewrestled on December 08, 2014, 04:09:36 PM
Quote from: tom37 on December 08, 2014, 01:23:02 PM
If people are concerned about making sure that a co-op is being done for the long term success of a program and not just a short term fix to make a run for a championship. Then it is a simple solve.  All members of a co-op team can compete for individual titles, but not team championships at conference, regionals, sectionals, and state for the first 2 years of the co-op. If the reason for the co-op is for the good of the kids and program then this restriction shouldn't matter.

And when said struggling team can't find a co-op partner because of this reason and we lose programs because of this we could complain about losing more teams? 

To me the gripe sounds like sour grapes that "my team" might now not be able to beat this team now.  Within the rules they co-oped, WIAA didn't stop it.  Have to work harder and beat them now.  Kids open enroll all the time to a "better" team with better coaches and more practice partners.  Why allow that anymore either then.  In the grand scheme of things in D1 this year this co-op won't win a state title anyway but if they do more power to them for knocking off a nationally ranked team.  So a team that was favored to win their region or section now has to work harder to make sure they beat said co-op sounds like creating good competition.  Why sit and complain when you can just go ok the WIAA allowed lets get to work and beat them.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aspan43 on December 08, 2014, 04:43:05 PM
What if you're a school with an enrollment of 800 that is in a conference that already has 3 co-ops with combined enrollments of 2200, 1650, and 1350?  Now two more schools that were already competitive are allowed to co-op into a combined 1750 enrollment and immediately become a conference favorite. Still sound like sour grapes?
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: shouldvewrestled on December 08, 2014, 06:11:44 PM
Quote from: aspan43 on December 08, 2014, 04:43:05 PM
What if you're a school with an enrollment of 800 that is in a conference that already has 3 co-ops with combined enrollments of 2200, 1650, and 1350?  Now two more schools that were already competitive are allowed to co-op into a combined 1750 enrollment and immediately become a conference favorite. Still sound like sour grapes?

Using enrollment numbers as a reason then yes. If the conference already has 2200, 1650, and 1350 sounds like this co-op isn't first to do it. Why wasn't there a thread up in arms over the others? My guess is the weren't all of a sudden favorites. Like I said use it as motivation, underdog mentality, go beat them.

I will agree this should be watched closely so it doesn't become a trend, but this situation sounds like they are thinking outside the box to help grow wrestling again in a community. We always see threads on here on how to get numbers back up in schools. They seem to be trying something and hopefully for them it works and the co-op goes away and we get two good wrestling communities again instead of 1. Don't bash them unless you have true proof they did this for a competitive advantage only.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aspan43 on December 08, 2014, 06:31:46 PM


Using enrollment numbers as a reason then yes. If the conference already has 2200, 1650, and 1350 sounds like this co-op isn't first to do it. Why wasn't there a thread up in arms over the others? My guess is the weren't all of a sudden favorites. Like I said use it as motivation, underdog mentality, go beat them.

I will agree this should be watched closely so it doesn't become a trend, but this situation sounds like they are thinking outside the box to help grow wrestling again in a community. We always see threads on here on how to get numbers back up in schools. They seem to be trying something and hopefully for them it works and the co-op goes away and we get two good wrestling communities again instead of 1. Don't bash them unless you have true proof they did this for a competitive advantage only.
[/quote]

I hope you see the irony of your argument.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: shouldvewrestled on December 08, 2014, 07:02:59 PM
I actually don't see any irony, in the fact, that someone from what seems like close to the situation comes on here and explains the reasoning behind the move. Yet many bash the reasoning because it hurts their teams chance at winning. These are D1 teams who work super hard just to barely field full teams year in and year out from what I'm reading. It amazes me personally that any D1 team can't find 14 kids for a full team. Like you said there are co-op of 2200 enrollments and I don't believe any were on the list CLC fan put up on a thread with full teams for 4 straight years at regionals.

That is the problem here even traditional decent wrestling communities are finding it difficult at times to field full lineups. But people only complain about this one because it all of a sudden makes them a conference favorite. For what a year or 2 then back to what? I think I'm looking at a bigger problem than your worry of who's going to win the conference.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: shouldvewrestled on December 08, 2014, 07:14:39 PM
And more on topic to stop the debate on my end. D1 I'm rooting for Menomonie to win it all!
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: CLC FAN on December 08, 2014, 08:11:48 PM
I hear the official wiwrestling rankings are coming out Wednesday.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: ElectricGuy on December 08, 2014, 10:24:23 PM
Quote from: shouldvewrestled on December 08, 2014, 07:14:39 PM
And more on topic to stop the debate on my end. D1 I'm rooting for Menomonie to win it all!

Good luck, train off tracks and no getting back on lol
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: maggie on December 09, 2014, 12:31:29 PM
GREAT ASSESSMENT GRANT.. ;), however, i will respectfully disagree with some of it... :) the chips will lay where they lay in the end, that said, and first of all, Milton's Whitehead didn't go out for reasons unknown...but, one might speculate that it was because he may have had a very hard time cracking the line up,..also keep in mind that we had a FR who made the tournament last yr that didn't get to wrestle because he was suspended the week of the tournament, he's paid his dues and will now continue with his wrestling ...a week ago, Milton wrestled a very good Catholic Boylan team followed by wrestling Ill's 4th ranked team in 3-A Class,Hononegah and last weekend Milton won the Fenton Ill tournament with 8 champions, 2 seconds, 2  3rd's and a 4th,...one thing for certain, there not shying away from the competition..the true read will come tonight when Mukwonago Enters the "PIT"  the same place the top notched Stoughton Vikings will have to wrestle in a few weeks... :)...GO REDMEN! ..AHHHH...REDMAWKS  :o
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: DarkKnight on December 09, 2014, 01:38:48 PM
official rankings tomorrow?
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Brewcity-takedown on December 09, 2014, 06:29:40 PM
Here is the Harvard team west allis and whitdale beat.
http://il.8to18.com/harvard/schedule/wrestling/b/v/2014-2015
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: maggie on December 09, 2014, 09:15:49 PM
harvard or Hononegah?  :o
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Pheasant 1984 on December 10, 2014, 08:04:38 PM
Well Grant Your predictions were close!
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Jim Rockford on December 14, 2014, 05:26:25 PM
Quote from: maggie on December 09, 2014, 12:31:29 PM
GREAT ASSESSMENT GRANT.. ;), however, i will respectfully disagree with some of it... :) the chips will lay where they lay in the end, that said, and first of all, Milton's Whitehead didn't go out for reasons unknown...but, one might speculate that it was because he may have had a very hard time cracking the line up,..also keep in mind that we had a FR who made the tournament last yr that didn't get to wrestle because he was suspended the week of the tournament, he's paid his dues and will now continue with his wrestling ...a week ago, Milton wrestled a very good Catholic Boylan team followed by wrestling Ill's 4th ranked team in 3-A Class,Hononegah and last weekend Milton won the Fenton Ill tournament with 8 champions, 2 seconds, 2  3rd's and a 4th,...one thing for certain, there not shying away from the competition..the true read will come tonight when Mukwonago Enters the "PIT"  the same place the top notched Stoughton Vikings will have to wrestle in a few weeks... :)...GO REDMEN! ..AHHHH...REDMAWKS  :o

You might be off your rocker on that statement about Whitehead.  Like I said in another section he didn't go out because of shoulder surgery.  He probably would have been and 145 or 152.  He would have easily made the lineup seeing that they have Taylor P. who has only been wrestling for a short time.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: missinghome on December 15, 2014, 03:41:47 PM
I wonder how many of the people on here complaining have "open enrolled" wrestlers on there team. Or kids that "moved into the district". I Believe Milton has 1 I know of for sure. I know a team very highly ranked right now that has 5 open enrolled kids on it. How is that any different? I know there is one poster bashing the coop on here that there biggest stud is open enrolled! Once again how is that different then this?
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: maggie on December 16, 2014, 08:02:32 AM
who's the kid from milton that was not there last yr?... :o   
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: missinghome on December 16, 2014, 02:42:54 PM
He was there already last year. Went there his freshman year. I'm not saying that he did anything wrong just saying it is exactly the same thing as people are bashing the coop for. Matter of fact if you coop you get the good and the bad kids if you open enroll you just get the good ones. I don't think you can print names on here (or should for that matter) but once again I don't blame a kid for doing it not bashing your program either just pointing out there is no difference. I would be willing to bet that almost ALL of the successful program today have a least 1 open enrolled kid on the team. inappropriate term3 I've even seen posts on here saying "where are they going to go to high school"
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aspan43 on December 16, 2014, 04:00:54 PM
Open enrolling is not the exact same thing.  For it to even be similar a group of wrestlers from one school would have to hatch a plan with the program of another school to all open enroll.  There are obvious and significant differences.   An individual student and his family deciding to enroll at a different school with a strong program where he will receive better coaching is not the same as two schools combining to artificially create a more successful team.

No one is saying that co-ops are a bad thing when appropriately applied.  In my mind they should be used to bring together two or more schools that are no longer competitive to hopefully make one team that is.  In this case two schools that are competitive came together to create a team immediately state ranked on this very website.  That fact alone means they didn't need to co-op.  Their argument is that in the future they're looking at declining numbers.  Why not wait to co-op until  the numbers are actually a problem?  How is Greendale going to revive its program by wrestling at Whitnall?  Why not co-op with the closer Greenfield HS?  How much was influenced by the fact that a Greendale wrestler is related to a Whitnall coach?  None of this quite passes the smell test.

It's funny that a previous poster on here said that people should stop whining and work harder to improve their programs to defeat a tougher opponent.  That sounds like great advice that these two programs should have followed.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Pheasant 1984 on December 16, 2014, 07:43:18 PM
Why don't all you complainers start your own threads! Co-op or open enrollment? Are they fair? Sounds like a better place to air out your opinions instead of here!
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: missinghome on December 16, 2014, 08:19:40 PM
So I guess if they 8 kids from Greendale would just have just "opened enrolled" then what you are saying is you would be fine with it right?
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: EIUwrestler1 on December 16, 2014, 08:53:20 PM
I guess there is just no dragging this thread back on topic.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: buc65 on December 17, 2014, 10:32:03 AM
Quote from: EIUwrestler1 on December 16, 2014, 08:53:20 PM
I guess there is just no dragging this thread back on topic.

The topic was for "Preseason" rankings.  We are now in season, so the original topic should be finished anyways.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: zukes on December 18, 2014, 02:35:41 PM
I have been reading this thread and I truly don't understand why the co-op is such a bad thing.

If I am correct there are already a multiple coops in this conference (Cudahy - St Francis, New Berlin Ike - New Berlin West, Wauwatosa East - Wauwatosa West). Is the complaint that the Whitnall - Greendale is a bad one?  If I remember correctly Greendale was mediocre at best having a 2-6 dual meet record last year (didn't Greendale coop with Thomas More last year?)  Why is it not a good thing that the kids get to wrestle on a pretty good team?  Should they be relegated to mediocrity because it is inconvenient to one team?

A poster used terms/phrases such as "hatch" "doesn't pass the smell test", this is wrong.  The question was asked why not coop with Greenfield?  Did they Greendale ask Greenfield and Greenfield declined? (I am thinking the answer to that is yes).  People are presenting themselves of arbiters of this situation.  I believe there is a governing body to rule on these things and they seemed it was OK for the coop to go through.

Speculation and innuendo is never good for this sport and it hurts the kids the most.  Our sport thrives on competition!  A wrestler should never back down from an opponent.  They always take the mat with the expectation of competing. 

If these kids have an opportunity to be successful as individuals and as a team when the alternative was to be on teams that would have suffered through the season, then I think it was not only a good thing but the right thing to do.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aggressive on December 18, 2014, 03:28:25 PM
OK. So you want to keep going with this. Then let me tell you what I've learned. There was great opposition for the New Berlin and the Tosa co-ops and much of it came from Whitnall and Pewaukee. Coaches in D1 schools should be able to build teams in their own schools. Six or seven Greendale wrestlers took Varsity positions from Whitnall kids so they could put this team together. Win the right way.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aspan43 on December 18, 2014, 04:07:06 PM
For everyone coming to the defense of Whitnall, let me ask a question.  How do you think Whitnall and the rest of the conference would feel if Greendale decided to co-op with Pewaukee?  I'm assuming you'd be fine with it.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: bigG on December 18, 2014, 04:09:39 PM
What do you suggest as a remedy to this pressing issue?

I don't know any of the background knowledge of this deal; but you seem to think it's an injustice. What would make it just to you?
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: zukes on December 18, 2014, 04:54:49 PM
It's not that I am defending Whitnall, it's just the only con argument I have heard is that Pewaukee doesn't like it. Rather than have a team forfeit half of its matches, they decided a coop was the way to go. As for who they coop with, that really isn't up to Pewaukee, it's up to Greendale. This what they chose, man up, compete and beat them. Otherwise this does sound a lot like sour grapes. 
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aggressive on December 18, 2014, 06:16:40 PM
Manning up is building your program. Sour grapes is co-oping instead because you can't win without it. The co-op beat South Milwaukee last week, 62-6. That may have been a competitive dual for both Greendale and Whitnall had they not co-oped.
Big G, the remedy is recruit and sustain if you are a D1 school. Greendale said they had 25 kids out at the beginning of last season. Where did they go?
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: zukes on December 18, 2014, 06:59:17 PM
Ok then I would expect the same behavior to every coop, T-shirts and all, otherwise it's hypocritical and petty
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: aspan43 on December 18, 2014, 09:30:43 PM
Quote from: zukes on December 18, 2014, 04:54:49 PM
It's not that I am defending Whitnall, it's just the only con argument I have heard is that Pewaukee doesn't like it. Rather than have a team forfeit half of its matches, they decided a coop was the way to go. As for who they coop with, that really isn't up to Pewaukee, it's up to Greendale. This what they chose, man up, compete and beat them. Otherwise this does sound a lot like sour grapes. 

1. You are defending Whitnall
2. Of course Pewaukee doesn't like it... neither does any other team in the conference... and if/when Whitdale knocks any other teams out of the post season they're really not going to like it.
3. Who's forfeiting half their matches?  Greendale had more non-senior wrestlers at last years conference tournament than Pewaukee.
4. Ultimately who they co-op with shouldn't be up to Greendale either.  It should be up to the WIAA.
5. I love the "man up and compete" line when that is the exact opposite of what these two programs did.  Especially when you're directing it at Pewaukee, one of the smallest schools in a conference they have dominated for years as a stand alone.  A team that made it to the state finals last year.  A team that enters and is competitive in some of the toughest tournaments in the state.  And they do it the right way.  Because of this string of success the team, and especially the seniors, take great pride in conference championships.  If they lose because the other team worked harder or was more skilled, so be it.  But if they were to lose because some grownups got together and picked new teams that's not ok. So call it sour grapes if you want.

Nothing is going to change at this point.  My only hope is that WIAA understands that this was a mistake and an abuse of the co-op, and in the future there is a little more scrutiny.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Dizzy on December 18, 2014, 09:34:44 PM
It is just Pewaukee. The conference athletic directors voted and only 1 "no" vote (Pewaukee}
The conference Principals voted and again it was 12-1 in favor with only Pewaukee as the only no vote.
Both school boards voted unanimously after the Greendale board had postponed the vote to allow
more time for any opposition. It then went to the WIAA and passed there.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: missinghome on December 18, 2014, 09:52:19 PM
If these kids would have just open enrolled we would not have had this problem. Then Greendale could have folded there program completely and that would have been what was best for wrestling right? How anyone has the balls to criticize a coop when every frickin school is open enrolling kids left and right is beyond me! Please someone explain to me how it is ok for a school to recruit the stud from a different school but this is wrong! 
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: wrestlersgrind on December 18, 2014, 09:56:35 PM
No doubt that Stoughton should be higher. All their weights have very good talent and they destroyed SVE. SVE is a very solid team and Stoughton just played with them.
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: woodald on December 18, 2014, 10:04:45 PM
Greendale won't have a program in 2 years and you can't blame it on the co-op!
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Kurth on December 18, 2014, 10:14:18 PM
Pewaukee's AD was the only one who contacted his coach before the voting took place.
Wrestling people aren't supposed to take advantage of the indifference or ignorance non-wrestling people have toward our sport - especially to take away Varsity positions from their own wrestlers.

This is what was presented to the Greendale School Board:

Our Request for cooperative sponsorship is based on the following reasons:
Greendale High School is experiencing a sharp decline in wrestling. They are wishing to co-op with an area team. Whitnall H.S. is also seeing a downward slide in participation numbers.
Schools in co-op        2-years ago    last year   this year   next year
                               2011-2012     2012-13   2013-14    2014-15
Greendale                         12 (co-op)     22        17             6
Whitnall                            37                33        33            29




Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: boowrestle on December 19, 2014, 11:14:08 AM
The problem with this whole situation is that 1 of the 2 schools has low enough #s that they should co-op and the other with almost 30 kids on their roster should not of been involved in a co-op.As a parent if i had a wrestler that was now losing wrestling oportunities because these 8 greendale kids were added,id be mad as inappropriate term3!!Question for somebody that knows the facts,are the 2 schools co-op for all sports or just wrestling????
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: Brewcity-takedown on December 19, 2014, 11:38:20 AM
Just wrestling
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: bigG on December 19, 2014, 12:15:52 PM
Again, this situation is way away from my neck of the woods; and I know next-to-nothing about it. My school generally has good numbers. A number of years ago, though, our neighboring district only had two or three kids wrestling and no major prospects for the future. We had them co-op with us (mind you, these weren't blue chip wrestlers) and, a few years later they started their own team again and now have , essentially, a full team.

That experience gave me a positive sentiment regarding co-ops.

Sure doesn't look like Whitnall needed any numbers (we didn't , either).

I much prefer to have wrestling people vote on wrestling politics, though. I know ADs can roll on their own; but a more professional AD includes the stakeholders (coaches/parents/etc.).
Title: Re: My D1 Preseason Team Rankings
Post by: DarkKnight on December 19, 2014, 06:35:42 PM
Good Point BigG.

What's done is done, fair or not fair.... Though it seems sketchy, we have to live with it.

Good luck to all programs....and know if you lose to this team, it is okay... but of course they dont look totally un beatable, but they are good.