2017 Individual State Champions Pick-em Challenge

[TomM]

2017 Individual State Champions Pick-em Challenge

by John Hatfield- Random Lake

http://www.wiwrestling.com/2017-individual-state-champions-pick-em-challenge/

[ElectricGuy]

GYP,

Unless I'm missing something - I came up with after a little checking that 42% (6 of 14) of the D1 State champs had never won youth state.   I would be interested if you could post on here the year they won, because I'm not finding the same results.

On the same note, two that I'm fairly certain never won youth state are now Badger recruits.  

I have heard this topic bantered around before, I agree youth success often does translate to HS success,  but for every HS state champ,  I probably could dig up a youth state champ that quit or never placed in HS.

Your post tends to give the false impression that unless you were a rock star in youth you really have no chance in HS.   "So based on the data & current trends there is less then a 1% chance of winning state as a high school er in D1 if you have not placed as a youth"   I don't believe that statistic without having researched it much more than my quick look above.

This was first brought up to me a year ago, I researched it myself and looked at all three divisions and found with the 42 state champs that year 52% had been youth state champs and if you mix in the finals participants of that group of 84 only 40% had been youth state champs.

Honestly,  that is what I tend to celebrate more - that there is the WI versions of Lee Kemps out there that can start off rocky or start wrestling in HS and still have a shot of winning it all.  

I don't know if any coach would even agree just based on their own anecdotal experience with your statement (unless you placed at youth state your chance at winning HS state is 1%)

I often tell of the story that I know personally a senior last year who was a 3x HS state champ that didn't even qualify for youth state his 8th grade year.  

Again, I agree training / mat time early and sometimes success can defiantly give you a leg up, but I don't believe the odds are near as bleak as you tend to want to paint them.

Personally I have a ton of respect for Hatfield and his ability to mine data, I would be interested in his take after looking at your data.

JMO

[NoFear]

getyourpoints great stats on youth and freestyle wrestling. If you want to be a great high school wrestler you have to put the time in.

[ElectricGuy]

Thank you for agreeing, As I said 8 out of the 14 (58%) listed won youth state. A little different than the 79% that you listed - or simpler put you said 11 had won youth state, when only 8 had won youth state.

The numbers of HS champions that were youth champions are even lower in D2 and D3

[NoFear]

I don't meant to start anything  but of course they are lower D2 and D3 are easier.

[ElectricGuy]

BTW - couple of examples to show what I'm getting at.

Model did not place 3rd at state (as you have),  his 7th grade year he placed 5th and that was it for youth / didn't place his 8th grade year - Now state champ and Badger recruit. 

Second was Hemauer,  again not a very decorated youth - I think only his 8th grade year did he place and that was 4th place and now Nationally ranked / State Champ and Badger recruit.

Both are the perfect example of keep working hard and youth does not dictate future.   That's the message I want to tell the youth not that if you don't "place now in youth" well your screwed.


NoFear - not going there.    Included D2/D3 to just trying to paint a more optimistic future for our youth if they just keep working hard than what was being stated.

[padre]

I'll come up with a new one.  Only two D1 state champs did not wrestle high school their freshman year....therefore if you went to youth state as a 3rd grader and didn't wrestle your freshman year you have 100 percent chance of being a D! state champ.   Sweet deal!!!!

[ElectricGuy]

GYP, 
Your a hoot,  you were off by100% in your first post.  You stated 3 and it was 6 that hadn't won state as youth.    Big difference when it's out of 14 spots.   

"Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable."
Mark Twain

Not following on "how much time those two put in" post,  of course they put a ton into traning,  thus why their youth didn't dictate their High School success. 

[ElectricGuy]

Yea,  I didn't know you were seriously considering / counting the non folkstyle.

Their Brackets had 4,5,6 participants.

Again facts vs statistics.  You win,  I'm done, my point has been stated.

[CLC FAN]

GYP - I think looking at youth data such as the numbers you pulled can be hugely insightful.  That being said, I have a rather large statistical beef with the way you presented the truths you are trying to communicate.  Basically, you did a post-hoc analysis of kids who  we already know ended up winning state.  As a predictive measure, that is not at all informative. 

Hunting example: "Of the deer who died of gunshot wounds, 100% were shot at."  Ok..... but what % of those deer that were shot at died?

It would be far better to track the pool of all youth state placewinners and find what percent of those young men ended up as high school state champs.  That would have some predictive value.  Lots, I would imagine.  If you feel you must, you could limit your study to just youth state champs who ended up attending a D1 high school... though I suspect one of the reasons you kept your stats to just D1 was because you knew it made your argument sound better. 

Two other things to think about: the law of large numbers says that as your sample size increases, your observed occurances of a random event start tracking closer and closer to the underlying probabilities.  Your analysis is based on a sample size of 14... yet you hint that you've done this same analysis for at least a few years.  Aggregate your data.  People put too much faith in the random fluctuations they saw recently and not enough faith in what the cumulative data is saying.  My returning state champ odds are based on 113 young men repeating as state champs out of 192 who had such an opportunity.  The every-year-on-its-own numbers are...

67%,  89%, 67%, 60%, 63%, 62%, 50%, 50%, 59%, 37%, 50%

The aggregate numbers show a much more stable pattern...

67%, 79%, 76%, 73%, 71%, 69%, 65%, 63%, 60%, 59%

Finally (man I'm a long-winded gas bag) the statement that non-youth champions have less than a 1% chance of winning a state championship is ... completley accurate and kind of obvious.  Any incoming freshmen has a very very small percentage chance of being a D1 state champ.  There are only 56 state champs during a D1 wrestler's career after all, and he is one of over 1000 D1 wrestlers every year.  The question is, for the pool of kids who placed at youth state or won youth state, how much do their odds improve?  Do they have a 2% chance?  5%?  20%?  In other words, how much does youth state placement move the needle?

[padre]

We can always count on you Padre, talk with no data or facts.

How am I off?  I stated facts that the Koontz brothers went to state at that age and both didn't wrestle high school their frosh year and won state.  Please find me another.  Otherwise it's 100 percent.

Truth is of course state champs are going to generally be heavy in the youth wrestling department, however many state champs were inches from not winning one match or another at the state tournament to kids that may or may not have had high accolades as a youth.  The 1 percent is just not reality.

However...look how many youth state placewinners weren't high school state champs.....a much much bigger percentage so one could use the way you state things to say your chance of being a state champ despite being successful as a youth is very very low.  Numbers can be worked any way you'd like.

[Ivan Stankowski]

We can always count on you Padre, talk with no data or facts.

How am I off?  I stated facts that the Koontz brothers went to state at that age and both didn't wrestle high school their frosh year and won state.  Please find me another.  Otherwise it's 100 percent.

Truth is of course state champs are going to generally be heavy in the youth wrestling department, however many state champs were inches from not winning one match or another at the state tournament to kids that may or may not have had high accolades as a youth.  The 1 percent is just not reality.

However...look how many youth state placewinners weren't high school state champs.....a much much bigger percentage so one could use the way you state things to say your chance of being a state champ despite being successful as a youth is very very low.  Numbers can be worked any way you'd like.

I am an accountant by trade and Padre is right you can make numbers say anything you want if you know what your doing, I also agree there are a lot more youth place winners that were never state champs as as well as youth state champs that never won a high school state championship

[wrestlersdad]

So what you are saying is 100% of those who quit never won a state title   

As very recent history has shown us, numbers can be manipulated and don't always portray the real scenario.

[bigoil]

Someone pointed out that there are only 56 champions in 4 years of wrestling. That likely amounts to 50 individual champions (4X, 3X, 2X).

there are ~128 schools in D1, easy math, 10 wrestlers per team (Ghetto has the actual number).

50 champions/5120 (128*10*4) = 1% chance of being a state champion regardless if you placed at Youth State, won Youth State or began as a freshman. No one would argue that experience helps.

[aarons23]

I dont care how you want to twist the numbers, or just throw out some rediculous stat to be an arse...the original numbers provided in the original post was a direct snapshot of last year state champions and the success they had as a youth.  Which is a pretty consistent snap shot of last several years.  So the discussions should be about creating better youth programs and stategies to retain youth wrestlers through high school....not about 2 wrestlers who didnt wrestle high school as freshman but probably wrestled more there freshman year than most wrestlers.....you can always find exceptions.  Aswell as Bigoils formula that would only be true if we randomed drawed the state champion out of a hat. I'm quit confident this post was started to create discussion on how to build wresting not some old guy coffee clutch to argue.