Author Topic: Badgers Path to Team Trophy  (Read 3279 times)

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Offline rjchev141

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Badgers Path to Team Trophy
« on: March 20, 2021, 01:45:13 PM »
So here is the big question, can and how could the Badgers earn a NCAA Team Trophy?  First, here are some assumptions based on the past 8 contested years. 

Here are the average team points per team place.
128 = 1st
108 = 2nd
94 = 3rd
80 = 4th
71 = 5th
So assume a team needs over 80 to get a trophy.

Here is a rough estimate of individual points per individual place.
24 = 1st
20 = 2nd
16 = 3rd
14 = 4th
12 = 5th
10 = 6th
8 = 7th
6.5 = 8th
4 = Round 12
2.5 = Round 16
1.5 = Round 24

So here are a couple paths to a trophy.
4 AA averaging runner-up points (20) = 80
5 AA averaging 3rd place points (16) = 80
6 AA averaging 4th place points (14) = 84
7 AA averaging 5th place points (12) = 84

Next, here is what we could possibly have.
2022
125-Barnett, 5th=12
133-Burwick, Rd16=2.5
141-Dentino/Escobar
149-Scharenbrock, Rd24=1.5
157-Model, Rd24=1.5
165-Wick, 3rd=16
174-Krattiger/Dow, Rd16=2.5
184-Dow/Calhoun
197-Amos, 3rd=16
285-Hilger, 3rd=16
So in 2022, 68 points is reasonable, but doesn't get it done.  To get there, someone on the team would have to step up big, someone would have to transfer in, or a new recruit would have to be ready to jump in.  Hamiti placing 5th with 12 points gets the Badgers to 80. 2 of 4 improving to AA among Burwick, Scharenbrock, Model, Krattiger also gets the team there.  A Seth Gross type transfer could do it too. Is there a Jaydin Eierman or Sebastian Rivera out there?

2023 (starts getting questionable who uses the extra year, for example Hilger)
125-Barnett, 3rd=16
133-Burwick, 8th=6.5
141-Dentino/Escobar
149-Zargo, Rd24=1.5
157-Scharenbrock, Rd12=4
165-Hamiti, 5th=12
174-Krattiger/Dow, Rd12=4
184-Dow/Calhoun
197-Amos, 1st=24
285-Hilger/Copass/Christensen, 3rd=16
So in 2023, 84 points is reasonable???

So can Bucky get a trophy in the next two years???


Online mkm13

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Re: Badgers Path to Team Trophy
« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2021, 02:21:21 PM »
Good summary. Shows how hard it is to be up there. Heavyweight is unique with the top talent. Steveson is way ahead of everyone. Parris is way ahead of everyone else. Cassioppi is way ahead of everyone else. Not trying to say Hillger cant do more, but expecting more than a potential 5th next year is asking a lot.

It is hard for me to see any points from Model or Scharenbrock. I do think Hamiti could be a potential guy who could get points at 157 right away, but will likely redshirt.

Offline wrastle63

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Re: Badgers Path to Team Trophy
« Reply #2 on: March 20, 2021, 02:28:41 PM »
Good summary. Shows how hard it is to be up there. Heavyweight is unique with the top talent. Steveson is way ahead of everyone. Parris is way ahead of everyone else. Cassioppi is way ahead of everyone else. Not trying to say Hillger cant do more, but expecting more than a potential 5th next year is asking a lot.

It is hard for me to see any points from Model or Scharenbrock. I do think Hamiti could be a potential guy who could get points at 157 right away, but will likely redshirt.
Steveson had talked about being done after this season, which would open up one side of the bracket opposite Parris.

Offline Troy Grindle

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Re: Badgers Path to Team Trophy
« Reply #3 on: March 20, 2021, 02:42:20 PM »
That is a pretty good assessment.  But it also is looking at more of the best case scenario’s. But it does show a path for the badgers to be competitive with the top five in the nation.  As a coaching staff I would assume that is what they’re looking for as a pathway how to get there and how to get better recruits in. 
And then there was that.

Offline rjchev141

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Re: Badgers Path to Team Trophy
« Reply #4 on: March 20, 2021, 03:03:26 PM »
Hate to say it, but I think the odds of a team trophy in the next two years are thin.  My opinion is this shows just how many things would have to go perfect given the current team & RTC.  To improve the trajectory, I think the Badgers need about 4 people yet.  Two senior world team contenders (say Alex Dieringer, Zain Retherford, Isaiah Martinez types) training full time at the RTC and two more top 10 recruits (say Nic Bouzakis, Jesse Mendez, Caleb Henson) in the lower middle weights.  These factors would contribute to long term success and raise the level of the current team to make the short term path to the team trophy more realistic.

But I'd also like to say, under our leadership's Hustle-Effort-Attitude, we have a great start! 
« Last Edit: March 20, 2021, 03:12:52 PM by rjchev141 »

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Re: Badgers Path to Team Trophy
« Reply #4 on: March 20, 2021, 03:03:26 PM »

Offline dad 2 5

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Re: Badgers Path to Team Trophy
« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2021, 03:46:04 PM »
Amazing to see six big ten teams in the top ten!
So why not Wick winning it all?
I am interested in what the team will look like next year. Can they move up the ladder in the Big Ten? I would think and hope so and I also think and hope they can move up from 18th in the NCAA. Far too early projection would be top ten in the NCAA, more would be great

Offline Harris

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Re: Badgers Path to Team Trophy
« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2021, 04:41:55 PM »
So can Bucky get a trophy in the next two years???

Yes  ;D

I think they would have to move mountains for it to happen but yes it is possible and a very reasonable goal for this group in the future. 

I saw an interview with Ben Askren recently where he was talking about when he first started his academy.  He was taking his wrestlers to a high level tournament for the first time and his kids were star struck.  Ben basically said that half the challenge was getting his young men to believe in themselves and not put the other wrestlers on such a pedestal. 

When you get the right group of wrestlers who actually believe they can compete at this level and don't let the "Iowa" or "Penn State" mystique get in the way, you can and will succeed.  I believe this group of wrestlers coming in next year has that mentality.  Only time will tell.  Heck, I have even seen it at the high school level with Ellsworth and Amery.  Look at what happened this year.  Amery won it all.

From watching this years NCAA tournament I really believe anything is possible and attainable with the right mix of coaching, athletes, and mental toughness.

Offline matrat86

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Re: Badgers Path to Team Trophy
« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2021, 04:50:13 PM »
Hate to say it, but I think the odds of a team trophy in the next two years are thin.  My opinion is this shows just how many things would have to go perfect given the current team & RTC.  To improve the trajectory, I think the Badgers need about 4 people yet.  Two senior world team contenders (say Alex Dieringer, Zain Retherford, Isaiah Martinez types) training full time at the RTC and two more top 10 recruits (say Nic Bouzakis, Jesse Mendez, Caleb Henson) in the lower middle weights.  These factors would contribute to long term success and raise the level of the current team to make the short term path to the team trophy more realistic.

But I'd also like to say, under our leadership's Hustle-Effort-Attitude, we have a great start!

I believe those type of guys would take a lot of money to bring in. Is the RTC there? As fans, we should make sure we are all making it possible to provide opportunities like this to the Badger athletes. I myself have been bad about this, but will contribute today. Who else is in?

Let's follow that yellow brick road and get to the top!

Offline whatever

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Re: Badgers Path to Team Trophy
« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2021, 05:14:05 PM »
So here is the big question, can and how could the Badgers earn a NCAA Team Trophy?  First, here are some assumptions based on the past 8 contested years. 

Here are the average team points per team place.
128 = 1st
108 = 2nd
94 = 3rd
80 = 4th
71 = 5th
So assume a team needs over 80 to get a trophy.

Here is a rough estimate of individual points per individual place.
24 = 1st
20 = 2nd
16 = 3rd
14 = 4th
12 = 5th
10 = 6th
8 = 7th
6.5 = 8th
4 = Round 12
2.5 = Round 16
1.5 = Round 24

So here are a couple paths to a trophy.
4 AA averaging runner-up points (20) = 80
5 AA averaging 3rd place points (16) = 80
6 AA averaging 4th place points (14) = 84
7 AA averaging 5th place points (12) = 84

Next, here is what we could possibly have.
2022
125-Barnett, 5th=12
133-Burwick, Rd16=2.5
141-Dentino/Escobar
149-Scharenbrock, Rd24=1.5
157-Model, Rd24=1.5
165-Wick, 3rd=16
174-Krattiger/Dow, Rd16=2.5
184-Dow/Calhoun
197-Amos, 3rd=16
285-Hilger, 3rd=16
So in 2022, 68 points is reasonable, but doesn't get it done.  To get there, someone on the team would have to step up big, someone would have to transfer in, or a new recruit would have to be ready to jump in.  Hamiti placing 5th with 12 points gets the Badgers to 80. 2 of 4 improving to AA among Burwick, Scharenbrock, Model, Krattiger also gets the team there.  A Seth Gross type transfer could do it too. Is there a Jaydin Eierman or Sebastian Rivera out there?

2023 (starts getting questionable who uses the extra year, for example Hilger)
125-Barnett, 3rd=16
133-Burwick, 8th=6.5
141-Dentino/Escobar
149-Zargo, Rd24=1.5
157-Scharenbrock, Rd12=4
165-Hamiti, 5th=12
174-Krattiger/Dow, Rd12=4
184-Dow/Calhoun
197-Amos, 1st=24
285-Hilger/Copass/Christensen, 3rd=16
So in 2023, 84 points is reasonable???

So can Bucky get a trophy in the next two years???

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Offline littleguy301

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Re: Badgers Path to Team Trophy
« Reply #9 on: March 21, 2021, 12:35:23 PM »
Hate to say it, but I think the odds of a team trophy in the next two years are thin.  My opinion is this shows just how many things would have to go perfect given the current team & RTC.  To improve the trajectory, I think the Badgers need about 4 people yet.  Two senior world team contenders (say Alex Dieringer, Zain Retherford, Isaiah Martinez types) training full time at the RTC and two more top 10 recruits (say Nic Bouzakis, Jesse Mendez, Caleb Henson) in the lower middle weights.  These factors would contribute to long term success and raise the level of the current team to make the short term path to the team trophy more realistic.

But I'd also like to say, under our leadership's Hustle-Effort-Attitude, we have a great start!

I also like the HEA!

I think winning a trophy is a bit steep but a goal that I like. It is starting to shape up a bit with the young guys getting in or coming. Remember Wick and hilger have basically 1 more year then we need to find replacements for them so.........but i think that will happen. Copass is already coming so......

If Wick wins a national title next year that would be a huge recruiting tool for Wisconsin!

Remember there were 6 other big ten teams in the top 10 so getting ahead of 1 or 2 of them would be a big step. Getting a trophy would mean leaping past a couple of incredible programs in 2 years. Maybe a 5 year plan....then.

Go badgers!
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Re: Badgers Path to Team Trophy
« Reply #9 on: March 21, 2021, 12:35:23 PM »

Online mkm13

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Re: Badgers Path to Team Trophy
« Reply #10 on: March 23, 2021, 12:35:19 PM »
Looking at 165 next year, it has a chance to be absolutely stacked:

Wick
Marinelli
Lewis (former NCAA champ, as tough as anyone if healthy)
Griffith (former NCAA champ)
O'Toole (took 3rd as true freshman, picked apart Valencia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpqC1nbluJc)
Carson Kharchla (had some great wins prior to injury..will be very tough on his feet for anyone)
Facundo, or whoever PSU puts out at 165
Wittlake
Smith
Amine

Even with an improved Wick, I would be curious how he will stack up against Marinelli, Lewis, Griffith, Kharchla, and O'Toole.  That is some serious talent.  It would hard to be upset if he finished 5th or 6th when you look at the other wrestlers.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2021, 12:40:02 PM by mkm13 »

Offline tigerking

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Re: Badgers Path to Team Trophy
« Reply #11 on: March 23, 2021, 01:02:38 PM »
Looking at 165 next year, it has a chance to be absolutely stacked:

Wick
Marinelli
Lewis (former NCAA champ, as tough as anyone if healthy)
Griffith (former NCAA champ)
O'Toole (took 3rd as true freshman, picked apart Valencia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpqC1nbluJc)
Carson Kharchla (had some great wins prior to injury..will be very tough on his feet for anyone)
Facundo, or whoever PSU puts out at 165
Wittlake
Smith
Amine

Even with an improved Wick, I would be curious how he will stack up against Marinelli, Lewis, Griffith, Kharchla, and O'Toole.  That is some serious talent.  It would hard to be upset if he finished 5th or 6th when you look at the other wrestlers.

Griffith to the Badgers and Wick goes 174? 174 should be pretty tough next year too. Might be a horse a piece.

Offline vsmf2010

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Re: Badgers Path to Team Trophy
« Reply #12 on: March 23, 2021, 01:46:31 PM »
Looking at 165 next year, it has a chance to be absolutely stacked:

Wick
Marinelli
Lewis (former NCAA champ, as tough as anyone if healthy)
Griffith (former NCAA champ)
O'Toole (took 3rd as true freshman, picked apart Valencia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpqC1nbluJc)
Carson Kharchla (had some great wins prior to injury..will be very tough on his feet for anyone)
Facundo, or whoever PSU puts out at 165
Wittlake
Smith
Amine

Even with an improved Wick, I would be curious how he will stack up against Marinelli, Lewis, Griffith, Kharchla, and O'Toole.  That is some serious talent.  It would hard to be upset if he finished 5th or 6th when you look at the other wrestlers.

I have watched Wick quite a bit during this season and he looks dramatically different to me. I would not expect him to take a back seat to anyone on that list and I would be shocked if a healthy EW was in the 5th place match next year.

Two other notes: Kharchla is the real deal and I would not be surprised to see him win the championship next year or any year after. Valencia was hurt pretty badly vs Smith in the quarters. I am not saying that O'Toole would not have beaten him but the tech fall was not indictive of the comparable levels of the 2.

Offline tigerking

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Re: Badgers Path to Team Trophy
« Reply #13 on: March 23, 2021, 02:01:27 PM »
Looking at 165 next year, it has a chance to be absolutely stacked:

Wick
Marinelli
Lewis (former NCAA champ, as tough as anyone if healthy)
Griffith (former NCAA champ)
O'Toole (took 3rd as true freshman, picked apart Valencia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpqC1nbluJc)
Carson Kharchla (had some great wins prior to injury..will be very tough on his feet for anyone)
Facundo, or whoever PSU puts out at 165
Wittlake
Smith
Amine

Even with an improved Wick, I would be curious how he will stack up against Marinelli, Lewis, Griffith, Kharchla, and O'Toole.  That is some serious talent.  It would hard to be upset if he finished 5th or 6th when you look at the other wrestlers.

I have watched Wick quite a bit during this season and he looks dramatically different to me. I would not expect him to take a back seat to anyone on that list and I would be shocked if a healthy EW was in the 5th place match next year.

Two other notes: Kharchla is the real deal and I would not be surprised to see him win the championship next year or any year after. Valencia was hurt pretty badly vs Smith in the quarters. I am not saying that O'Toole would not have beaten him but the tech fall was not indictive of the comparable levels of the 2.

Kharchla is elite. Their room is full right now at Ohio State in the upper weights. I think Ethan Smith will be looking for a new home shortly.

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Re: Badgers Path to Team Trophy
« Reply #13 on: March 23, 2021, 02:01:27 PM »

Offline Harris

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Re: Badgers Path to Team Trophy
« Reply #14 on: March 23, 2021, 03:45:17 PM »
Looking at 165 next year, it has a chance to be absolutely stacked:

Wick
Marinelli
Lewis (former NCAA champ, as tough as anyone if healthy)
Griffith (former NCAA champ)
O'Toole (took 3rd as true freshman, picked apart Valencia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpqC1nbluJc)
Carson Kharchla (had some great wins prior to injury..will be very tough on his feet for anyone)
Facundo, or whoever PSU puts out at 165
Wittlake
Smith
Amine

Even with an improved Wick, I would be curious how he will stack up against Marinelli, Lewis, Griffith, Kharchla, and O'Toole.  That is some serious talent.  It would hard to be upset if he finished 5th or 6th when you look at the other wrestlers.

I have watched Wick quite a bit during this season and he looks dramatically different to me. I would not expect him to take a back seat to anyone on that list and I would be shocked if a healthy EW was in the 5th place match next year.

Two other notes: Kharchla is the real deal and I would not be surprised to see him win the championship next year or any year after. Valencia was hurt pretty badly vs Smith in the quarters. I am not saying that O'Toole would not have beaten him but the tech fall was not indictive of the comparable levels of the 2.

Agree with everything you wrote.

Wisconsin Wrestling Online

Re: Badgers Path to Team Trophy
« Reply #14 on: March 23, 2021, 03:45:17 PM »