NCAA Wrestling Championships Bubble Watch

[TomM]

https://www.offtackleempire.com/2021/3/9/22320874/ncaa-wrestling-championships-bubble-watch-at-large-bids-big-tens

125: (HWAHSQB)

You have 7 available slots and 9 ranked wrestlers on the outside looking in. #15 Eric Barnett of the Wisconsin Badgers, #7 Liam Cronin of the Nebraska Cornhuskers, and #21 Fabrian Gutierrez are locks. #17 Justin Cardani of the Illinois Fighting Illini is an interesting case. He's 2-9 on the year, but he faced 11 ranked wrestlers. So he has no bad losses, but no great wins either. The two wins were Brock Hudkins who lost two matches and then must've gotten hurt because he didn't wrestle again and Eric Barnett who turned around and majored him in the Big Ten tournament. Many of his losses were tantalizingly close, but still, are they going to take a 2-9 record? Probably. Should they? Eh. I think all the guys above make the cut except Rider and Roes because the EIWA already has provided enough cannon fodder for the field.

149: (Atinat)

Eleven ranked guys compete for six spots, including five Big Ten wrestlers. The withdrawal of #6 Mikey Carr opened a spot for the field, but with four of the top six searching for a seed coming from the Big Ten, it'll likely be net zero for the Big Ten. #5 Max Murin of the Iowa Hawkeyes is a sure shot. He's 4-3 on the year, with losses to the Big Ten's first, second, and third-place finishers, and a win over the fourth. He also beat Carr. #12 Yahya Thomas of Northwestern finished eighth, falling one place short of auto-qualifying, and he also shouldn't have too much trouble winning a bid. He's 2-4 against the NCAA field this season, though, and also lost to Carr. Then comes the Penn State Nittany Lion's Beau Bartlett, who has beaten only Valdiviez among the qualifiers. However, his losses come to Sasso, Blockhus, and Yahya Thomas. And Peyton Omania has a losing record on the year, though all of his losses come to qualifiers, and he has wins over Kanen Storr and Mike Van Brill (both thanks to headlock throws). Certainly one of those two will make it, and there's a chance both do. Drew Scharenbrock of the Wisconsin Badgers has almost no case, however, arguably not beating a starter all year. He won two dual matches, but neither guy he beat was submitted for postseason competition, and he beat Illinois's Christian Kanzler in the tournament, but Kanzler was a last minute substitution. He also has a loss to Luke Gardner, who Bartlett beat out for a spot on Penn State's team.

157: (Atinat)

This may be the only spot where the Big Ten doesn't get anyone at-large. Six spots, eleven ranked guys, and the Big Ten guys are eight and ten. Wisconsin's #26 Garrett Model and #32 Elijah Cleary of Ohio State split on the season, with Model winning at the dual and Cleary winning in the quarterfinals of the championships. Model also lost to Coleman, Berge, Lee, Deakin, and Saldate on the season, while only scoring a wing against Caleb Licking among NCAA qualifiers this year. He'll have the better chance of the two. Clearly lost to Robert Kanniard, Saldate, Coleman, Lewan, Berge, Deakin, and Licking, with his best win coming against Model. He's likely out.

174: (Atinat)

Twelve guys are going for seven spots here, and two of them are Big Tenors. Figaro. #22 Jackson Turley of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights went 3-2 on the year, and 2-2 against tournament-tier opponents, beating Drew Hughes and Jake Allar and losing to Labriola and Allar in the tournament. He also placed ninth in the extra tournament at Big Tens. He should be in safely. #28 Jared Krattiger of Wisconsin is just on the outside. He's 2-0 against Jake Allar on the year, and his losses all come to qualified wrestlers. His worst loss came in the wrestlebacks when he was pinned by Drew Hughes, the eventual eighth place finisher.