Wisconsin In-State Wrestling Talent - Chicken and the Egg Question?

[Micah]

The statement that Wisconsin does not have a lot of D1 wrestling talent comes up a lot on this forum.  I have read posts on here supporting and contradicting this statement.  Isn't this a chicken and the egg question?  Meaning, does Wisconsin not have in-state talent because it is not developed at the college level by the UW or do in-state kids not have success at the UW because there is no in-state talent?

I truly don't know the answer to this question but I think it could be a fun topic to debate.  How would you measure in-state D1 talent at the high school level?  There are a few national folkstyle tournaments but not enough to really determine what states are the best.  Is Cadet and Jr. Nationals a good measuring stick? Or how about rankings?  I feel the national rankings are pretty hit or miss, if you are on a team that gets lots of exposure and a coach promoting you there is a better chance you will pop up in the rankings.

I think if you are using Cadet and Jr. Nationals the state of Wisconsin for its population size performs well nationally and is typically a top ten state.  How does Wisconsin usually perform at these national tournaments compared to Missouri, Oklahoma and NY?  I would guess (not sure have not followed for a few years) many of the years Wisconsin performs better or is in the same tier as these states.  Mizzou, OSU and Cornell are the top teams for these states, do they do it with in-state talent or out?

Another way to compare would be to analyze the number of NCAA Champs, All Americans, and NCAA Qualifiers the state of Wisconsin has produced for the UW and compare it to the number Wisconsin has produced for other programs.  This seems like a lot of work but I am sure someone out there can find these stats or already has them.  We could also find the total number of Wisconsin Wrestlers that have gone to the UW vs. other programs and create a success rate percentage??  I am not a statistical guru so I am not sure what the best statistical method would be to achieve an honest result.  

I think it is safe to say Wisconsin is not PA, IL or MN, but how do Wisconsin high school kids compare to Iowa, Missouri, Oklahoma, Virginia or NY?  These four states all have top 5 if not top 10 college wrestling programs.  

Lets try to prove that either Wisconsin does not have the talent as a state or that it does have enough talent to produce a top tier D1 program.  Lets see if we can put this argument to bed one way or the other.

Disclaimer: I do not care what the result is, I do not have an agenda for or against UW and Barry.  I am from Wisconsin and want to see Wisconsin kids do well and the UW.  I would just like the answer to the question: Is Wisconsin is lacking in D1 talent compared to states like Iowa, Missouri, Oklahoma, Virginia and NY?  I always hear the phrase Wisconsin does not have in-state D1 talent but there are never statistics attached to back up that statement.  Or maybe I was not paying enough attention when I read those posts, it is quite possible!

[npope]

You would seem to be far too rational and civil to participate in any such discussion on this topic on the forum 

[Micah]

Probably why I moved to South Carolina!  Better weather, beaches and southern hospitality!

[Micah]

Here are the team scores for the last 5 years at Jr. Nationals along with the number of participants.  Wisconsin did finish in the top 10 three years and top 20 the other two.  Summer Freestyle tournaments can be tricky to use as a barometer as many of the kids may not wrestle.  However, it is one of the only big national tournaments to you can use to see how different states high school wrestlers compare.

   2010 Jr. Nationals   
1   Illinois - 52     72
2   Iowa - 44     64
3   Minnesota - 57     40
4   Missouri - 35     37
5   Wisconsin - 44     30
6   California - 51     24
7   New Jersey, NJ - 28     24
8   Florida - 34     22
9   Michigan, MI - 30     21
10   New York - 46     19
11   Oklahoma - 29     17
12   Ohio - 51     16
13   South Dakota - 12     16
14   Maryland - 33     14
15   Idaho - 27     12
16   Pennsylvania - 42     12
17   Washington - 32     12
18   Kansas - 39     10
19   Connecticut - 8     8
20   Utah, UT - 23     8
21   North Dakota - 13     7
22   Indiana - 31     6
23   Massachusetts - 20     6
24   North Carolina - 20     6
25   South Carolina, SC - 2     6
26   Texas - 15     6
27   Montana, MT - 9     5
28   Louisiana - 9     4
29   Nebraska - 7     4
30   Alabama - 9     3

   

   2011 Jr. Nationals   
1   Illinois, IL - 51     93
2   Iowa, IA - 50     55
3   Wisconsin, WI - 37     32
4   Ohio, OH - 53     30
5   California, CA - 54     29
6   Michigan, MI - 20     27
7   Minnesota, MN - 54     27
8   Florida, FL - 22     26
9   Virginia, VA - 28     24
10   New York, NY - 40     22
11   Indiana, IN - 33     19
12   Colorado, CO - 29     18
13   Oklahoma, OK - 27     15
14   Washington, WA - 35     15
15   New Jersey, NJ - 25     12
16   Arizona, AZ - 31     9
17   Maryland, MD - 24     9
18   South Carolina, SC - 5     9
19   Nebraska, NE - 6     8
20   Oregon, OR - 33     8
21   Hawaii, HI - 14     7
22   Pennsylvania, PA - 48     7
23   Massachusetts, MA - 6     6
24   North Dakota, ND - 15     5
25   Texas, TX - 18     5
26   Wyoming, WY - 24     5
27   Idaho, ID - 19     4
28   Kansas, KS - 23     4
29   Nevada, NV - 15     4
30   Montana, MT - 18     3

   2012 Jr. Nationals   
1   Illinois, IL - 58     63
2   Iowa, IA - 49     51
3   Minnesota, MN - 53     48
4   Pennsylvania, PA - 49     40
5   Michigan, MI - 26     26
6   New York, NY - 41     26
7   Missouri, MO - 40     24
8   California, CA - 58     23
9   Ohio, OH - 48     22
10   New Jersey, NJ - 26     21
11   Maryland, MD - 30     17
12   Colorado, CO - 33     16
13   Idaho, ID - 24     14
14   Indiana, IN - 29     14
15   Wisconsin, WI - 43     14
16   Arizona, AZ - 28     13
17   Washington, WA - 40     12
18   South Carolina, SC - 8     11
19   Texas, TX - 16     11
20   Florida, FL - 19     10
21   Oklahoma, OK - 28     10
22   New Mexico, NM - 4     8
23   Oregon, OR - 22     8
24   Georgia, GA - 19     7
25   Utah, UT - 25     6
26   Virginia, VA - 21     5
27   Delaware, DE - 2     4
28   North Carolina, NC - 36     4
29   Wyoming, WY - 12     4
30   Kansas, KS - 26     3

   2013 Jr. Nationals   
1   Illinois, IL - 61     69
2   Oklahoma, OK - 33     46
3   California, CA - 50     42
4   Ohio, OH - 48     34
5   Indiana, IN - 30     31
6   Michigan, MI - 36     30
7   Iowa, IA - 39     28
8   Minnesota, MN - 56     26
9   Wisconsin, WI - 36     25
10   Missouri, MO - 40     22
11   New Jersey, NJ - 35     22
12   Utah, UT - 31     21
13   Pennsylvania, PA - 48     20
14   North Dakota, ND - 23     17
15   Texas, TX - 17     14
16   Florida, FL - 18     9
17   Georgia, GA - 22     9
18   Oregon, OR - 31     9
19   Tennessee, TN - 6     8
20   Colorado, CO - 22     7
21   Connecticut, CT - 10     7
22   Kansas, KS - 22     7
23   Wyoming, WY - 13     6
24   North Carolina, NC - 29     5
25   Virginia, VA - 26     5
26   Alabama, AL - 11     4
27   Delaware, DE - 7     4
28   West Virginia, WV - 7     4
29   Nebraska, NE - 14     3
30   Arizona, AZ - 29     2


   2014 Jr. Nationals   
1.    New Jersey   58
2.    Minnesota   53
3.    Oklahoma   53
4.    Pennsylvania   53
5.    Iowa   36
6.    Illinois   35
7.    Michigan   25
8.    Missouri   21
9.    Utah   20
10.    Ohio   17
11.    New York   16
12.    California   14
13.    Texas   12
14.    Indiana   11
15.    North Dakota   9
16.    Oregon   9
17.    South Dakota   9
18.    Arizona   8
19.    Georgia   8
20.    Wisconsin   8
21.    Connecticut   7
22.    Massachusetts   7
23.    Virginia   7
24.    Florida   6
25.    Kentucky   6
26.    Washington   6
27.    Idaho   5
28.    Kansas   5
29.    Arkansas   4
30.    Colorado   4
31.    Maryland   4
32.    Nebraska   4

[jaguarwrestler]

I believe WI has plenty of quality in state talent, as much as just about any other state based on our population we have an average amount of AA's

[wrestle03]

Quick calculation of what states have top 10 ranked high school wrestlers.
Penn-25
Illinois-15
Ohio-14
Minnesota-11
Iowa-8
Wisconsin-1 guy from Hartford


Jag, you are WRONG.  WI has ONE top ten ranked kid in the ENTIRE country...to say that WI has as much in state talent as any other state is plain silly and stupid.

[Micah]

I would prefer to use actual results than rankings, how are they ranking kids that have never actually wrestled each other?  Playing devils advocate lets say WI had 10 guys just miss the top ten ranked between 11-15 do you think there is really much of a difference between a guy ranked 6-10 or 11-15?  I think it is safe to say that rankings are only as good as the paper they written on, UW has had a few top recruiting class that we have experienced.  I think you can use rankings as a very lighted hearted projection. 

What are the actual results in competition?

I think these stats would give us the best answer:  lol now who wants to collect the data?

Another way to compare would be to analyze the number of NCAA Champs, All Americans, and NCAA Qualifiers the state of Wisconsin has produced for the UW and compare it to the number Wisconsin has produced for other programs.  This seems like a lot of work but I am sure someone out there can find these stats or already has them.  We could also find the total number of Wisconsin Wrestlers that have gone to the UW vs. other programs and create a success rate percentage??  I am not a statistical guru so I am not sure what the best statistical method would be to achieve an honest result. 

[wrestlinglife1]

Rankings are very biased and full of holes. If you go by rankings than Wisconsin is behind pretty much any state. Go by results. I talked to the rankers at Flo. They are very East Coast or Powerhouse program biased, and they will tell you that. It is a proven system for them.
Josh Bird walked through Fargo Nationals, yet isn't even honorable mention. Marko records 1 loss to a unranked guy and he gets knocked completely out. Yet kids like Matt Kolodzik from St. Paris Graham, Ohio - now Blair Academy, NJ gets beat multiple times in the last couple of years by guys not in the top ten, yet he stays in the top 3 annually.
Powerhouse Program biased. If Robert Lee, Beau Breske, Hunter Marko, etc. weren't doing so many National Tournaments, they would not be ranked Nationally. 

[bigoil]

I would prefer to use actual results than rankings, how are they ranking kids that have never actually wrestled each other?  Playing devils advocate lets say WI had 10 guys just miss the top ten ranked between 11-15 do you think there is really much of a difference between a guy ranked 6-10 or 11-15?  I think it is safe to say that rankings are only as good as the paper they written on, UW has had a few top recruiting class that we have experienced.  I think you can use rankings as a very lighted hearted projection. 

What are the actual results in competition?

I think these stats would give us the best answer:  lol now who wants to collect the data?

Another way to compare would be to analyze the number of NCAA Champs, All Americans, and NCAA Qualifiers the state of Wisconsin has produced for the UW and compare it to the number Wisconsin has produced for other programs.  This seems like a lot of work but I am sure someone out there can find these stats or already has them.  We could also find the total number of Wisconsin Wrestlers that have gone to the UW vs. other programs and create a success rate percentage??  I am not a statistical guru so I am not sure what the best statistical method would be to achieve an honest result. 

If you do that, then do it for PA. I have seen reports on the number of AA's PA produces and it was a ridiculous number, at that time PSU wasn't the powerhouse they are today. So if you don't have an agenda, I suggest you do the same analysis for other states such as IL, IN, OH, PA, MN and NJ.

[Handles II]

A simple google search gave me this:

https://jaroslavwrestling.wordpress.com/2014/03/24/2014-ncaa-wrestling-all-americans-graphs-and-maps-of-their-home-states/

and this: http://www.wrestlingreport.com/2011-12_News/2012%20NCAA%20Division%20I%20-%20V2.pdf

Should help juice up the argument one way or another.

[jaguarwrestler]

Quick calculation of what states have top 10 ranked high school wrestlers.
Penn-25
Illinois-15
Ohio-14
Minnesota-11
Iowa-8
Wisconsin-1 guy from Hartford


Jag, you are WRONG.  WI has ONE top ten ranked kid in the ENTIRE country...to say that WI has as much in state talent as any other state is plain silly and stupid.

I know I'm just stupid... we have about 2% of the nations population, since 2000 about 1120 AA's have been crowned... 2% of 1120 is 22.4 we have more than 22.4 AA's since 2000 we have more than our fair share, we are above average... Illinois is 2nd on your list, when if the last time they finished in to the top 3 in the country? By you line of thinking they should be a lot better.

[mdbriggs]

I just had to put my two cents in on this plus some stats.  A couple things must at least brought to the forefront.    I simply want to place the facts out there as the numbers are hard to ignore.

Stats from 2013
80 All Americans and only 1 from Wisconsin High Schools
Stats from 2014
80 All Americans and only 2 from Wisconsin High Schools

It concerns me that of in the past two years 660 wrestlers compete at Nationals and less than a 2 dozen were from Wisconsin and only 3  All-Americans.  You can make all of the assumptions/excuses you want but the numbers do not lie.  Less than 4% of the qualifiers and less than 2% of the All-Americans.  

Does the problem exists because of:
A.   Wisconsin does not have that many great wrestlers
B.   Wisconsin does not put out many true student athletes
C.   Not enough Division 1 Opportunities close by for Wisconsin athletes
D.   All of the above

And lastly, some other interesting stats that I found:

From http://mwolverine.com/Top_Wrestling_States.html

If I read it correctly from 1961 to 2011 Wisconsin has had 82 All Americans by 49 different wrestlers Ranking it 12th
In order  of Total All-America Wrestlers

PA - 504
Iowa - 350
Ohio - 313
OK - 271
Ill - 242
Cal - 240
NJ - 213
NY- 211
Mich- 182
Minn- 128
Oregon-125
Wisc - 82

[whatever]

You would seem to be far too rational and civil to participate in any such discussion on this topic on the forum 

I laughed at this one, Nat...!

(Why did I find it funny?....mostly because there is more than an element of truth to it...)

[Handles II]

IMO B is the overall best answer.

We've got some great talent. There isn't much of a draw, in my perception, for kids to wrestle in college, especially D1 and/or for the Badgers.
We have no 2 year college wrestling in the state. I believe our D2 and D3 programs get much less attention from the media, and more importantly, the wrestling public than they should. So kids grow up sort of unaware or in disbelief of their abilities.

In addition, about 76% of the states population does not have a 4-year college degree. That's a strong pull to stay home and work with your buddies or family.

Let us not forget that scholarships, or lack of them come into play a bit in-state. IA has 3 D1 teams. MI has 3. Just examples.

[jaguarwrestler]

Rankings are very biased and full of holes. If you go by rankings than Wisconsin is behind pretty much any state. Go by results. I talked to the rankers at Flo. They are very East Coast or Powerhouse program biased, and they will tell you that. It is a proven system for them.
Josh Bird walked through Fargo Nationals, yet isn't even honorable mention. Marko records 1 loss to a unranked guy and he gets knocked completely out. Yet kids like Matt Kolodzik from St. Paris Graham, Ohio - now Blair Academy, NJ gets beat multiple times in the last couple of years by guys not in the top ten, yet he stays in the top 3 annually.
Powerhouse Program biased. If Robert Lee, Beau Breske, , etc. weren't doing so many National Tournaments, they would not be ranked Nationally. 

Marko is not top 20 on win or intermat... yeah... right.