My D1 Preseason Team Rankings

[boowrestle]

If those div 1 state pairings are correct then you are possibly looking at a badger conference 1st rd battle  milton/stoughton vs sauk praire.

[HMsDad]

boo

Here is the link to where I got the pairings...

http://wiwrestling.com/HS/wiaa_assign.htm

[Harris]

I love it! Coach is putting it out there!

+1

[CLC FAN]

Well Coach, my research (moneyball analytics I believe you referred to them as) is usually more along the lines of forecasting rather than ranking.  So with that in mind, here is my team sectional and team state bracket for D1.  The percentages following the regional winners is the confidence I have in those teams winning their regional.  Those confidences come from at least 100 simulations of each regional using predictions for each team's number of wrestlers and each team's average points per wrestler, and then allowing for random variation.  Too wordy, I know, but that's just me.

D1   Kaukauna (99%)
                               Kaukauna
D2 Osh. North (42%)
                                                   Kaukauna
H1   Burlington (80%)
                               Burlington
H2 Oak Creek  (50%)
                                                                      Kaukauna
A1 Menomonie (77%)
                               Menomonie
A2    Merrill   (50%)
                                                   Menomonie
G1 Men. Falls  (76%)
                               Men. Falls
G2 Whtfsh Bay  (32%)
                                                                                        Kaukauna
B1   Bay Port (89%)
                                 Bay Port
B2 Wis. Rapids (47%)
                                                    Bay Port
F1 Pewaukee (83%)
                               Mukwonago
F2 Mukwonago (63%)
                                                                      Milton
C1 Sauk Prairie (82%)
                               Sauk Prairie
C2 De Forest (38%)
                                                   Milton
E1 Stoughton (66%)
                                  Milton
E2   Milton  (70%)

[CLC FAN]

The most likely regional "upsets" if you view the teams I've picked as favorites:

Reginal A2
Favorite:    Merrill (50%)
Underdogs DC Everest (21%)
              Marshfield (10%)
               Stevens Point (18%)

Regional B2
Favorite:   WI Rapids (47%)
Underdogs New London (28%)
                 Hortonville (18%)

Regional C2
Favorite :   DeForest (38%)
Underdogs Middleton (31%)
                Wauknakee (28%)

Regional D2  (Here's a fun one)
Favorite:  Oshkosh North (42%)
Underdogs Oshkosh West (16%)
                  Hartford   (15%)
                  Slinger   (10%)
                  Menasha  (9%)

Regional G2 (Here's a three-horse race)
Favorite: Whitefish Bay (32%)
Underdogs Wauwatosa W/E (31%)
            Milwaukee Riverside (20%)

Regional H2
Favorite: Oak Creek (50%)
Underdog   South Milwaukee (31%)

[Dizzy]

What about region E and F??

[CLC FAN]

If you look at the original bracket, Those were pretty cut-and-dried favorites.  I only showed the underdogs when the favorites had a 50% or less chance of winning the regional.

Got a specific team in mind in one of those regions?

[Dizzy]

West Allis Central and Whitnall/Greendale co-op

[Dale Einerson]

The most likely regional "upsets" if you view the teams I've picked as favorites:

Reginal A2
Favorite:    Merrill (50%)
Underdogs DC Everest (21%)
              Marshfield (10%)
               Stevens Point (18%)

Regional B2
Favorite:   WI Rapids (47%)
Underdogs New London (28%)
                 Hortonville (18%)

Regional C2
Favorite :   DeForest (38%)
Underdogs Middleton (31%)
                Wauknakee (28%)

Regional D2  (Here's a fun one)
Favorite:  Oshkosh North (42%)
Underdogs Oshkosh West (16%)
                  Hartford   (15%)
                  Slinger   (10%)
                  Menasha  (9%)

Regional G2 (Here's a three-horse race)
Favorite: Whitefish Bay (32%)
Underdogs Wauwatosa W/E (31%)
            Milwaukee Riverside (20%)

Regional H2
Favorite: Oak Creek (50%)
Underdog   South Milwaukee (31%)

Thanks for putting this out there guys, makes for an interesting read.

CLC, can you please, in your best layman's terms, tell us how percentages are generated?  Of course, I am trying to guesstimate some puts and takes on potential surprises.

Pewaukee makes the transition to D1!  Love what Coach Kurth does for and with that program...  Do the results from a D2 Sectional potentially skew the analysis in this "all things being equal" analysis in some way?  I am kind of thinking "no," but thought it was worth other insights.

[CLC FAN]

CLC, can you please, in your best layman's terms, tell us how percentages are generated?  Of course, I am trying to guesstimate some puts and takes on potential surprises.

#bookiewanted

Layman's terms: Let's say that I predict that Team Dale will have 10 regional starters and those starters will score 18 points each at regionals.  My baseline prediction is then that Team Dale scores 180 points at regionals.  The percentage comes into play because I am aware that the true results will likely not match my results, but will fall into a range near 180.

I have gone back and measured how much my projections tend to be off.  For D1, I am usually within 2 for regional starters and almost never more than 3.5 off.  For points/starter I am usually within 2.5 points and almost never off by more than 5 points/starter.  So I basically allow random chance to alter Team Dale's outcome.  Sometimes they have more than 10 starters, sometimes they earn more than 18 points each.  A computer generates random outcomes for Team Dale, and for each team in the regionals.  The percentages are how frequently each team won the regional in my computer-generated simulations. 

So for Kaukauna, I predict them to have 14 in their lineup and to score 19.4 pts/regional starter.  When I ran the simulations, I got total points for Kaukauna anywhere from 163 to 323, but most times (99 out of 100 in fact) they won the regional.

That makes so much sense in my head.  I hope it came out clear. 

[CLC FAN]

West Allis Central and Whitnall/Greendale co-op

Regional F2
Favorite: Mukwonago (63%)
Underdogs: West Allis Central (22%)
                Whitnall/Greendale (7%)
                Muskego         (5%)
Everyone else in the regional = 1% or less each

[gwmiller44]

If Tosa has there starters at the end they will be in the team sectional.

[Grant Peissig]

Excellent work as usual CLC.  Thanks to everyone for weighing in with your thoughts, as Dale said, it makes for an interesting read.

CLC, my question for you is in regards to Bay Port.  Are you counting Ingold in or out?  I'm just kind of surprised that they are that heavy of a statistical favorite over Pulaski in the Regional.

On another note, I didn't expect to see Robert Lee competing at 145 lbs. in the Super 32.  I think I read on here that he didn't have to cut much, if any weight to make 138 for Fargo this summer.  Maybe bulking him up is how Kaukauna plans to spread out their talent this season?  I guess we will know soon enough, and congrats to The General on a great performance in a very tough tournament.

[CLC FAN]

CLC, my question for you is in regards to Bay Port.  Are you counting Ingold in or out?  I'm just kind of surprised that they are that heavy of a statistical favorite over Pulaski in the Regional.

I count all of last year's starters who did not graduate, so Ingold got counted.  Including Ingold, Bay Port brings back starters who averaged 20.1 points each last year.  Pulaski's starters averaged 16.4.  Even if you remove Ingold, Bay Port still averages 19.2 pts/returning starter.  Since my prediction is for both teams to be full or very close, the 4 points extra per regional starter translates into Bay Port winning a healthy percent of the time. 

[aarons23]

CLC, my question for you is in regards to Bay Port.  Are you counting Ingold in or out?  I'm just kind of surprised that they are that heavy of a statistical favorite over Pulaski in the Regional.

I count all of last year's starters who did not graduate, so Ingold got counted.  Including Ingold, Bay Port brings back starters who averaged 20.1 points each last year.  Pulaski's starters averaged 16.4.  Even if you remove Ingold, Bay Port still averages 19.2 pts/returning starter.  Since my prediction is for both teams to be full or very close, the 4 points extra per regional starter translates into Bay Port winning a healthy percent of the time. 

But if you subtract Ingold from Bayport you must also add Caelworts to Pulaski which both scenerios probally take points away from Bay Port and add Points to Pulaski (Caelworts points taking away possible bayport points and loss of Ingold points increases Pulaski points.)

I sure hope Ingold wrestles. I would be very disappointed if he didn't.