Brewers outlook

[Houndhead]

Milwaukee Brewers

Two years after winning 96 games and advancing to the NL Championship Series, the Brewers stumbled to a 74-88 season in 2013. By the end of May (in which they lost 22 of 28 games), Milwaukee was already 15 games out of first place and the season was effectively over, though the Brew Crew did go 36-32 in the second half.

While Brewers' pitching was somewhat improved, surrendering 46 fewer runs than it allowed in 2012, the offense fell off a cliff, mustering only 640 runs. That's 136 runs fewer than they scored the previous season, thanks primarily to the prolonged absences of Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart

Primary needs
First base, starting pitcher, left-handed reliever.


As J.P. Breen has noted (over at Disciples of Uecker, the Brewers blog on the SweetSpot Network), Milwaukee first basemen posted a minus-4.6 WAR in 2013, which is the worst mark for any team in the history of baseball. That's bad.

Free agents

[head57]

I'm higher on the Brewers 2014 prospects than most, mostly due to the fact that health should bring them a very, very good offense. If you can sign Corey Hart to a reasonable deal and play him at 1b, platoon Weeks and Gennett (going with the hot hand when that happens), return Braun to the 3 spot and get Aramis Ramirez healthy for one more year you have a lineup with basically NO holes.

Now that means Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura need to continue to develop (or at least maintain) what they have shown the past 2 years. It really isn't that ridiculous to think that we could have the best offense in the NL next year.

I think the bullpen already sets up quite well.

The key will be to get 1 or 2 potentially productive starters to compete with the pieces we already have in place in the rotation. We'll need guys like Thornburg and Peralta to step up and maintain some consistency. A quality LHP would be terrific.

Lots of potential there and lots of pieces to work with. Not sure it will be an exciting offseason, but there is a lot of talent on the roster yet.

[Houndhead]

Milwaukee Brewers Rumors

Brewers Claim Elian Herrera
By Steve Adams [November 4, 2013 at 1:53pm CST]
The Brewers announced that they have claimed infielder/outfielder Elian Herrera off waivers from the Dodgers (Twitter link).

Herrera, who turns 29 this Februrary, received just eight big league plate appearances for the Dodgers this season but racked up 214 PAs in 67 games for the 2012 Dodgers. The Dominican utility-man has a .251/.336/.328 in his brief Major League career, and he's totaled at least 30 innings in all three outfield spots, at second base and at third base.

In 197 career games at the Triple-A level, the switch-hitting Herrera is a .300/.371/.420 hitter with 12 homers and 28 stolen bases. This move brings the Brewers' 40-man roster to 36 and drops the Dodgers' 40-man roster to 32, the teams announced.

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Brewers Exercise Norichika Aoki's Option
By Steve Adams [October 29, 2013 at 4:40pm CST]
The Brewers have exercised their club option on right fielder Norichika Aoki, according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy. While previously reported to be worth just $1.5MM, McCalvy reports that the actual total is just under $2MM due to incentives that he reached in 2012-13. Either way, as McCalvy notes, exercising Aoki's option was a no-brainer for Brewers GM Doug Melvin.

Aoki, 32 in January, hit .287/.355/.399 in his first two seasons with the Brew Crew, totaling 18 homers and 50 stolen bases. Aoki originally projected to be a reserve outfielder for the Brewers, but he thrived in an everyday role after Corey Hart moved to first base full-time to replace the injured Mat Gamel in 2012.

The Brewers won the rights to negotiate with Aoki, a former NPB batting champion in Japan, by submitting a $2.5MM posting fee. Aoki then signed a two-year, $2.5MM contract with an option for a third year and incentives that could take the contract's total value to $8.6MM over three years. In hindsight, the move has turned out to be one of baseball's biggest bargains and one of the savviest of Melvin's tenure as GM.

Because Aoki is such a bargain, the emergence of Khris Davis as a potential outfield option alongside Carlos Gomez and Ryan Braun has led many to speculate that Aoki could be dealt in the offseason. However, as MLBTR's Edward Creech noted in his recent Offseason Outlook for the Brewers, Melvin seems highly reluctant to deal Aoki.

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Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers
By Edward Creech [October 28, 2013 at 12:40pm CST]
The Brewers' offseason focus is finding a first baseman and figuring out how to keep the heart of their lineup healthy after injuries forced 125 different lineups in 2013.

Guaranteed Contracts

Ryan Braun, OF: $99MM through 2020 (plus $18MM deferred to be paid in 2022-2031)
Carlos Gomez, OF: $24MM through 2016
Kyle Lohse, SP: $22MM through 2015 (plus $7MM deferrred to be paid in 2016-18)
Aramis Ramirez, 3B: $20MM through 2014
Yovani Gallardo, SP: $11.85MM through 2014
Rickie Weeks, 2B: $11MM through 2014
Jonathan Lucroy, C: $9.25MM through 2016
Tom Gorzelanny, RP: $2.8MM through 2014
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)

Marco Estrada, SP (4.035): $3.5MM projected salary
Burke Badenhop, RP (5.116): $2.1MM
Juan Francisco, 1B/3B (2.156): $1.4MM
Contract Options

Norichika Aoki, OF: $1.5MM club option ($250K buyout)
Free Agents

Corey Hart, Michael Gonzalez, Yuniesky Betancourt
With 2014 payroll obligations already in the neighborhood of $80MM (not including salaries for pre-arbitration eligible players), the Brewers have to be frugal in free agency and may not be interested in taking on much salary in any proposed trade. But, if he could, GM Doug Melvin would spend lavishly to keep his marquee players healthy. The injury bug struck early. Corey Hart underwent right knee surgery in January and was expected to return in May, but he injured his other knee during rehab requiring a third knee surgery in 16 months. The rest of the first base depth chart was wiped out during Spring Training: Mat Gamel re-tore his right ACL missing his second consecutive season, and Taylor Green was sidelined by hip surgery. The Brewers wound up using seven first basemen in 2013, none of whom had ever started a MLB game there. As expected, first base was an offensive sinkhole for the Brewers with a slash line of .211/.256/.359 and a MLB-worst .629 OPS.

The Brewers need to find a solution at first base. Hart, who earned $10MM this past season, has said he will take a pay cut to remain in Milwaukee (MLBTR's Steve Adams estimates the hometown discount will be $6MM for one year). Melvin says Hart will be in the mix, but what's Plan B if he doesn't return? Juan Francisco's power intrigues the Brewers, but he struck out 95 times in 270 plate appearances while displaying a horrific split against left-handers (.156/.206/.219 with no home runs). The Brewers have altered Francisco's batting stance, which he will continue to experiment with during winter ball. A platoon would be optimal, but the available free agents are either too expensive (Mike Napoli), a defensive liability better suited to DH (Kendrys Morales, Mark Reynolds, Mike Morse), or not a clear upgrade over the pre-arbitration eligible Sean Halton (i.e. the other right-handed first base bats on MLBTR's 2014 Free Agents list). A trade is unlikely with Hunter Morris, their seventh-best prospect per MLB.com, waiting in the wings with a service clock which has yet to begin ticking. Morris did regress at Triple-A after a banner season at Double-A in 2012 and was not among the team's September call-ups, but the Brewers are notoriously patient with their young players. Another option is to give catcher Jonathan Lucroy more playing time at first, which would provide additional at-bats for his backup Martin Maldonado, who struggled offensively in 2013. Manager Ron Roenicke attributed Maldonado's fall off to a lack of playing time and intends to give him 50-60 ABs during Spring Training with the hopes of a better start to 2014. 

Roenicke is also hoping for a better start to 2014 for Aramis Ramirez, who spent two separate one-month stints on the disabled list with a knee injury. The knee never healed fully, resulting in a dramatic offensive downturn: 12 HRs (the fewest in a decade), 49 RBIs (a career-worst as a starter), and 18 doubles (down from a NL-leading 50 in 2012). Not only did the injured knee sap Ramirez's power, it also limited his range in the field. With a salary committment of $20MM and no other true cleanup hitter in the system, the Brewers are not in a position to move Ramirez this winter, so they need him healthy and productive in the middle of their order.

The middle of the order also depends on the return of Ryan Braun, who landed on the disabled list for the first time in his career (right hand nerve inflammation) and was suspended 65 games for violations of the Basic Agreement and the Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program stemming from his involvement with the Biogenesis clinic. If Braun suffers a post-Biogenesis decline, the Brewers do have options with the emergence of rookie Khris Davis (.279/.353/.596 with 11 home runs in 153 plate appearances). Davis, however, has been susceptible to injury (wrist, quad, and hamstring problems in September alone) and has defensive limitations making him strictly a left fielder (an attempt to learn first base in Instructional League a couple years ago was an abject failure). The Brewers acknowledge internal discussions about a possible move to right field for Braun in order to free up left for Davis and making Norichika Aoki, the incumbent right fielder with a very affordable 2014 club option worth $1.5MM, a prime trade chip. Melvin, however, seems hesitant to deal Aoki.

"Those things are like pitching. You never have enough," Melvin said of the Brewers' outfield depth (as quoted by MLB.com's Adam McCalvy). "Look at the injuries that can happen. Aoki can play left field; he can play right field. Whenever we make those decisions, he's probably going to be a part of that offense. You've got to have depth, too, if you're not going to get involved in free agency. We don't know that yet; we don't know where that market is going. Probably outfield is where we have a trade piece if we want to trade to maybe fill another hole."

The Brewers' starting rotation struggled in the first half with hamstring injuries forcing Yovani Gallardo and Marco Estrada to the disabled list and Wily Peralta to miss a start. Kyle Lohse also skipped a start because of a balky elbow (a possible effect of not signing with the Brewers until March - missing five weeks of Spring Training). Good health brought better results. The quartet of Lohse, Gallardo, Peralta, and Estrada showed enough during the second half of the season to earn a rotation spot heading into Spring Training. Gallardo was the subject of several 2013 Trade Deadline rumors, but the Brewers are not inclined to give up on a homegrown pitching talent with a team-friendly contract unless the return justifies creating a hole in their rotation. Tyler Thornburg (2-1, 1.47 ERA in seven starts), Johnny Hellweg, (the Brewers' minor league pitcher of the year), and Jimmy Nelson (the organization's top prospect, according to MLB.com) will battle it out to become the fifth starter. A veteran will only be brought in to compete with these young hurlers if a Lohse-like situation presents itself.

The bullpen, so dreadful in 2012 with 29 blown saves and ranked dead last in ERA, was a strength in 2013 because of young arms. After trading away John Axford and Francisco Rodriguez, Jim Henderson inherited the closer role and excelled with 28 saves in 29 opportunities (he blew three saves while acting as the setup man for Rodriguez). Rob Wooten and Brandon Kintzler covered the 7th and 8th innings, respectively. Tom Gorzelanny failed to impress in a 10-start audition, so he will return to a lefty reliever/spot starter role in 2014. Burke Badenhop, Donovan Hand, Alfredo Figaro, and Michael Blazek (acquired in the Axford deal) are among the in-house options to round out the relief corps. The lone need is a veteran presence at the back end of the bullpen, in case Henderson stumbles. A reunion with Rodriguez is not out of the question because of his relationship with Roenicke. K-Rod has shown a willingness to pitch the 8th inning for him in the past and may do so again, if a closer job is not available elsewhere.

Another area of strength for the Brewers is up-the-middle: center fielder Carlos Gomez, shortstop Jean Segura, and catcher Lucroy. Gomez received a three-year, $24MM contract extension in March and showed he was worth every penny earning his first All-Star berth en route to establishing career-highs in every offensive category. Gomez also led or tied for the team lead in home runs, doubles, triples, and runs scored while becoming the first player in franchise history to record a 20-40 season. He played Gold Glove caliber defense, as well, with a career-high 12 assists, the second-highest total in the NL. Segura, also a first-time All-Star, could be next in line for a Spring Training extension after posting a slash of .294/.329/.423 with 44 stolen bases (second in the NL) in his first full MLB season. Segura, however, slumped in the second half hitting only .244/.268/.315. While both sides talked last month, the Brewers may want to wait one more year before engaging in serious negotiations to see what kind of numbers Segura will produce consistently, a sentiment shared by his agent Joe Klein. Lucroy replaced Braun in the three-hole, leading the team in RBIs while batting .321 with runners in scoring position and less than two outs. Gomez and Lucroy are under contract through 2016 while Segura is under team control until 2019.

The Brewers need to determine who will play second base - Rickie Weeks or Scooter Gennett. Melvin has said the decision will be made in Spring Training and nothing will happen during the offseason to help the franchise make that selection. Not expected to be cleared for baseball activity until February, the Brewers are hoping to use Spring Training to showcase Weeks for a possible trade, a faint possibility due to his injury history and $11MM salary. If a team is willing to gamble on Weeks, the Brewers will have to eat a substantial portion of the salary, a difficult decision for any budget-conscious organization to make. If Weeks is unable to return to his 2010-11 level of production, the next best scenario is a healthy Weeks platooning with the left-handed hitting Gennett (.324/.356/.479 in 230 plate appearances), who struggled against left-handers (.154/.175/.154 in a small sample size of 39 plate appearances). Such an arrangement benefitted Weeks in June when he hit .355 with a 1.106 OPS.

The Brewers play in arguably the strongest division in the National League, but feel they can compete with the Cardinals, Pirates, and Reds by complementing their core of Braun, Ramirez, Gomez, Segura, and Lucroy with a return to good health and improvements to the right-side of their infield. "Can we win with this roster? Yeah, we can win with the roster we have," said Melvin (as quoted by Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). "I think if our best players are on the field and our young guys take that next step, we can be there."

Free Agent Profile: Corey Hart
By Steve Adams [October 23, 2013 at 4:48pm CST]
After converting to the Brewers' full-time first baseman midway through the 2012 campaign, Corey Hart was expected to miss the season's first month due to offseason microfracture surgery on his right knee. Setbacks in his recovery would end up pushing his return date back, and Hart would ultimately injure his other knee, leading to another surgery that cost Hart the entirety of the 2013 season. Hart is now set to hit free agency more than 12 months removed from his last Major League game.

Strengths/Pros

Power is Hart's biggest asset when healthy. He's posted an ISO north of .225 each season from 2010-12, averaging 29 homers per season in each of those campaigns. In fact, dating back to 2010, the only free agents with an ISO greater than Hart's mark of .235 are Mike Napoli and Curtis Granderson. 

While he's much better against left-handed pitching (as is the case with many right-handed sluggers), Hart still handles same-handed pitching quite well. From 2010-12, Hart posted an .822 OPS and 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.

Hart will turn 32 years old next March, so while he's on the wrong side of his prime, he's young enough that there's no need to expect a sharp decline in his skills. Because he didn't play in 2013, he's not going to receive a qualifying offer and should only command a one-year deal on the free agent market. Hart offers as much raw power as nearly any free agent on the market, but will come at a fraction of the price in terms of years and dollars, without requiring a draft pick.

Weaknesses/Cons

Hart was never an elite right fielder, but after a move to first base in 2012 and what has turned into a severe knee injury, his days in the outfield could be over. If that's the case, and Hart is limited to first base, he doesn't bring much in the way of defensive value. In his brief career at first, Hart has graded out as a poor defender.

Hart's power levels jumped in 2010, and he's been able to sustain those elevated levels, but it's come with an increased strikeout rate as well. Hart struck out in nearly 23 percent of his plate appearances from 2010-12, and he's never been one to take many walks (career 7.1 percent walk rate).

It's also no guarantee that Hart will come back as the same player he was in 2010-12. He's a buy-low candidate for teams in need of power, but should a contending team feel comfortable banking on Hart to hold down a spot in the middle of the order? The Rangers went a similar route with Lance Berkman this past offseason and received little return on that investment.

Personal

Corey is known as a strong family man. He and his wife, Kristina, have two daugters and two sons together. He has been active within the Wisconsin community, participating in charity funds for the Girl Scouts of Milwaukee Area, the Girls of Summer Softball League, the Wisconsin American Legion, Stomp Out Spit Tobacco, Make-A-Wish and more.

Market

Hart has already said that he'd take a discount to return to Milwaukee -- the team that drafted him in 2000 and the only organization that he has ever known. The matchup makes sense, too, given the Brewers' lack of a clear internal candidate to man the position. Milwaukee deployed a combination of Alex Gonzalez, Juan Francisco, Yuniesky Betancourt, Sean Halton and Blake Lalli at the position in 2013 and received a ghastly .211/.256/.359 batting line. The Brewers' collective wRC+ of 64 was the worst in all of baseball at first base, making a reunion with their longest-tenured player an attractive option.

Sticking in the midwest, the Twins lack an obvious first base candidate and could afford to take a flier on Hart. He'd be a nice trade chip for their rebuilding efforts should they sell pieces next July. The Indians could deploy Hart at first base and move Nick Swisher back to the outfield, moving Drew Stubbs into a fourth outfielder role. Elsewhere around the league, the Orioles, Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox, Rays, Mets, Pirates and Rockies all have uncertainty at first base/designated hitter. And with Jose Dariel Abreu now committed to the White Sox on a six-year deal, Hart's competition on the open market has decreased.

Expected Contract

An incentive-laden one-year deal seems likely, and it makes sense for both Hart and his suitors. Interested teams aren't likely to be comfortable guaranteeing multiple years for Hart, and he's young enough to cash in on a strong season and earn a multiyear pact next winter.

Hart earned $10MM in 2013 but could have to take a pay cut. Berkman was able to land a $10MM base salary plus a $1MM buyout on his $12MM option for 2014, but he at least played in 32 games in 2012. Hart, on the other hand, never took the field and is coming off surgery on both knees, making the Berkman deal a lofty open-market goal for he and agent Jeff Berry of CAA.

His track record from 2010-12 is still strong though, and right-handed power is in scarce supply beyond Hart, Napoli, Byrd and Nelson Cruz. Ultimately, I think Hart could command a one-year, $8MM contract on the open market with another $2-4MM worth of incentives. If he's serious about taking a discount to stay with the Brewers, he may play for slightly less than that and settle for a $6MM base salary as a show of good faith to the only organization he's ever called home.

[ougiqbxy]

I'd rather have a lefthanded bat for a first baseman to compliment the Brwers batting order.  I don't think Juan Francisco is the answer.  Why hasn't anyone mentioned James Loney?

[mat time]

Forget the platoon at 2nd. Weeks has cost the Brewers enough games. Just eat the 10 million that u owe him and throw him out on the curb. So what if Gennett can't hit lefties, Weeks couldn't hit a slow pitched softball. Maybe with some more ABs during spring training Gennett will turn it around.

[Ghetto]

Ah the Brewers.... I miss them already.

If they pull Corey Hart back into the mix at 1st, the Brewers have a murderers row of a lineup.

Not in batting order of any kind...

1st- Hart
2nd- Weeks/Gennett (I'll take Gennett, though the Brewers love Weeks, and no one will want that salary)
3rd- Ramirez
SS- Segura
LF- Braun
CF- Gomez
RF- Suzuki
C- Lucroy

That's a lineup that's gonna HR at least 200 times in a season.

Logan Schaefer has likely played his way out of the 4th outfield spot. He's simply not ready to hit major league pitching at this point. Davis however, might be perfect for that spot, as he can play both corner positions (though not well) to give Braun and Aoki a breather on some days. The only viable player to relieve Gomez is Schaefer, though I don't think he's the answer. Maybe Aoki plays CF once in a while, IDK. Or maybe they carry 5 OF.

Everyone in the league is looking for starting and relief pitching. The Brewers problem is that they have no one lefthanded ready to pitch at the major league level from below.

Betancourt is probably gone unless he signs for clubhouse food. He simply can't defend, and he's starting to guess even more at the plate. They'll find a younger Mike Gonzales, who wasn't all that great in spurts.

The Brewers will go into next season with two #2s in Gallardo and Lohse, and two #4s in Estrada and Thornburg. Wily Peralta when good is just awesome out there. He's a potential #1 down the road if he can just trust in his arm and stop thinking so much. He just has electric stuff. He may prove to be the best of the bunch.

Chris Narveson elected to go into the free agent market, but I wonder how he feels about Milwaukee. If he can be got on the cheap, he might be the lefthanded arm that they need. I doubt he'll ever start again though, unless its in a Gorzelanny/Estrada type situation.

I'm not sure that Rodriguez is worth bringing back with all the younger arms the Brewers have. He has to be way on the cheap for that to happen.

I'm excited for next season. If they play even remotely good baseball during that abysmal May, they are right in the thick of things last season. And that was with the complete mess with Braun, the injury to Hart and the constant injuries of Ramirez. The one thing I think they lack is a utility infielder that isn't 100 years old. There's no real answer on the roster or in the farm system. They'd have to go find a guy in free agency.

[Houndhead]

Don't forget to add LuCroy to your line-up.

[Ghetto]

Don't forget to add LuCroy to your line-up.

Oh yeah. Old age.