Brewers sign Kyle Lohse 3 years 33 million dollars-

Started by Scourge, March 25, 2013, 01:07:30 PM

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Scourge

I really dislike this deal on two levels.  First of all, with the way the draft is set up now and how money is allocated, we just lost the 17th pick of the first round(essentially traded it to the Cardinals) and we are paying for what a guy's done, not for what he's likely TO do.

People will automatically go to Jeff Suppan.  The fact is, most people thought Kyle Lohse should/would have gotten 4-5 years at 15 million a year.  In fact he wanted 15 million a year up until recently and the Rangers, Rockies and other teams were interested. 

But here's the problem to me.  The St Louis Cardinals have the #1 overall farm system in  baseball.  They have a young OF'er who's ranked #1 overall, three pitchers, Carlos Martinez(top 20 prospect) who can throw 100+ and could be a superstar, Shelby Miller the #5 overall prospect in baseball, and Trevor Rosenthal the 39th ranked prospect in baseball, and finally, Tyrell Jenkins, all of whom can throw in the mid to upper 90's and have great stuff. 

So in a year in which I don't really think the Brewers were one good pitcher away from being a contender given how much better Cincy is, STL should be, and especially Washington, Atlanta and the Nationals, this just seems like a waste of money and more importantly a good pick, and now we lose all that money from the pool of money we get to pick players with. 



Maybe I'm just pessimistic.  Maybe we'll pick up right where we left off last year?  Maybe Lohse will have a great start and we'll be able to trade him to a team in need of a starting pitcher due to injury and we'll get prospects back. 


Oh well, if Rogers, Fiers and Peralta were doing their jobs, we wouldn't have felt the need to go get another starting pitcher, and one of the top 5 free agents coming into the off-season to begin with.

Houndhead

The Milwaukee Brewers have signed Jeff Suppan,Randy Wolf, I mean Kyle Lohse for 3 years, 33 million.

littleguy301

I think I just threw up in my mouth a little bit :'(
If life is tough,,,,wear a helmet

Todd

Quote from: Scourge on March 25, 2013, 01:07:30 PM
I really dislike this deal on two levels.  First of all, with the way the draft is set up now and how money is allocated, we just lost the 17th pick of the first round(essentially traded it to the Cardinals) and we are paying for what a guy's done, not for what he's likely TO do.

People will automatically go to Jeff Suppan.  The fact is, most people thought Kyle Lohse should/would have gotten 4-5 years at 15 million a year.  In fact he wanted 15 million a year up until recently and the Rangers, Rockies and other teams were interested. 

But here's the problem to me.  The St Louis Cardinals have the #1 overall farm system in  baseball.  They have a young OF'er who's ranked #1 overall, three pitchers, Carlos Martinez(top 20 prospect) who can throw 100+ and could be a superstar, Shelby Miller the #5 overall prospect in baseball, and Trevor Rosenthal the 39th ranked prospect in baseball, and finally, Tyrell Jenkins, all of whom can throw in the mid to upper 90's and have great stuff. 

So in a year in which I don't really think the Brewers were one good pitcher away from being a contender given how much better Cincy is, STL should be, and especially Washington, Atlanta and the Nationals, this just seems like a waste of money and more importantly a good pick, and now we lose all that money from the pool of money we get to pick players with. 



Maybe I'm just pessimistic.  Maybe we'll pick up right where we left off last year?  Maybe Lohse will have a great start and we'll be able to trade him to a team in need of a starting pitcher due to injury and we'll get prospects back. 


Oh well, if Rogers, Fiers and Peralta were doing their jobs, we wouldn't have felt the need to go get another starting pitcher, and one of the top 5 free agents coming into the off-season to begin with.

That's just it they're sketchy and pitching is going to probably be an achilles heel.  While they aren't just "one good pitcher away", I think there is some need to shore up what may be a gaping hole.  I don't think they will be battling for anything this year but I also don't want them to act like they're cashing it in on this season to save some bucks for next (few) seasons.  I go to games and I watch them, all I ask is they attempt to put a competitive product out there.  I'm glad they are trying to do that with KL.

That said, here's my prediction for this year...  78-84  :(
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Todd

Quote from: Houndhead on March 25, 2013, 01:10:54 PM
The Milwaukee Brewers have signed Jeff Suppan,Randy Wolf, I mean Kyle Lohse for 3 years, 33 million.


I don't remember Suppan's previous three years prior to coming to The Brewers but I know he had a great one year prior.  I believe that Lohse has had 3 extremely solid seasons and I'm not ready to go to a "Sup pitched great!"  attitude just yet.  It's a risk yes but I don't think as much as the JS and RW pick ups were. 
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Houndhead

Quote from: Todd on March 25, 2013, 03:09:58 PM
Quote from: Houndhead on March 25, 2013, 01:10:54 PM
The Milwaukee Brewers have signed Jeff Suppan,Randy Wolf, I mean Kyle Lohse for 3 years, 33 million.


I don't remember Suppan's previous three years prior to coming to The Brewers but I know he had a great one year prior.  I believe that Lohse has had 3 extremely solid seasons and I'm not ready to go to a "Sup pitched great!"  attitude just yet.  It's a risk yes but I don't think as much as the JS and RW pick ups were. 

Yea, I really don't think it is that bad considering the rotation they would have without Lohse. With the second wild card, You never know what can happen. The first step is making the playoffs, the second step is getting hot once your in. It really doesn't't bother me how much they pay anyone, as long as it doesn't compromise their ability to field contending teams in the future.

Ghetto

Time will tell. He was great last year. If he can be great again...

Truth is that no one has any idea who will get injured, who will slump at the wrong time, etc. Suppan was a poor man's Glavine, pitching the edges with mediocre stuff. He stopped being able to hit the edges, and he was batting practice.

Please don't let Lohse be junk. That's a ton of cash, though only over three years.

I'm optimistic about this season. The Brewers will finish better than last year IMO. Not ready for a prediction quite yet though.
As long as we are keeping score, I've got something to prove

DrSnide

#7
Interesting analysis of Lohse's improvement with the sinker the last 2 years:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/10/21/3522486/-kyle-lohse-analysis-sabermetrics-lucky

I am kind of neutral on it.  I think the state of the Brewer's rotation lead to the move-I'm just not that sure this helps them make the playoffs this year so not sure why would bother.  It has the feel of an owner's move with the intent of keep the team competitive enough to put fans in the seats rather than a move to improve the long term ability of the team to compete for a World Series.  Its this kind of move that leads to mediocrity long term.  

On the other hand, it probably will keep the team more competitive for this year and with the extra wild card and an improved bullpen who knows-maybe it will pay off.  I don't think Lohse is necearrily Suppon - he has put up better numbers the last two years than Suppon ever did- but have to admit I always worry about picking up the Cardinal pitcher who found his grove in St. Louis.

The one thing that keeps me "okay" with this is that there is no "no trade" clause and the contract isn't so large that its untradeable so you may be able to flip Lohse for some prospects at some point  in the future and add to the minor league system.  But that may very well be me trying to be too optimistic.  
Learn the rules like a pro so you can break them like an artist - Pablo Picasso

bigoil

I'd love to see a couple of the young guys get a serious shot. Hopefully a cal Eldred type year out of one or two of them. Lohse takes that opportunity away with what I will assume to be

Yo, Lohse, Estrada, Narvisson. Fifth spot would likely be a young buck but early on that spot misses quite a few starts.

Todd

Quote from: howavi on March 26, 2013, 10:19:11 PM
I'd love to see a couple of the young guys get a serious shot. Hopefully a cal Eldred type year out of one or two of them. Lohse takes that opportunity away with what I will assume to be

Yo, Lohse, Estrada, Narvisson. Fifth spot would likely be a young buck but early on that spot misses quite a few starts.

From the way Fiers looked early in his starts last year I thought he was going to be the guy.  Yeah, not so much now.  Again, I'm good with the pick up because they need to do something to fill that gaping wound of a pitching staff. 

Speaking of gaping holes, why is Uni B back????  He is useless in the infield unless a ball is hit directly at him. He may as well be sitting in a chair.  Maybe they'll just use him for his bat.
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littleguy301

Boy have I been getting some crap about this from my Twins fan friends.

I hope he works out so I can give it back latter this year!
If life is tough,,,,wear a helmet

Ghetto

Fiers has to be right on to be good. He throws a high fastball at about 90, and that isn't gonna get by guys unless he's hitting his spots down as well. If not, he's gonna give up some gargantuan home runs.
As long as we are keeping score, I've got something to prove

Scourge

Quote from: Todd on March 25, 2013, 03:05:41 PM
Quote from: Scourge on March 25, 2013, 01:07:30 PM
I really dislike this deal on two levels.  First of all, with the way the draft is set up now and how money is allocated, we just lost the 17th pick of the first round(essentially traded it to the Cardinals) and we are paying for what a guy's done, not for what he's likely TO do.

People will automatically go to Jeff Suppan.  The fact is, most people thought Kyle Lohse should/would have gotten 4-5 years at 15 million a year.  In fact he wanted 15 million a year up until recently and the Rangers, Rockies and other teams were interested. 

But here's the problem to me.  The St Louis Cardinals have the #1 overall farm system in  baseball.  They have a young OF'er who's ranked #1 overall, three pitchers, Carlos Martinez(top 20 prospect) who can throw 100+ and could be a superstar, Shelby Miller the #5 overall prospect in baseball, and Trevor Rosenthal the 39th ranked prospect in baseball, and finally, Tyrell Jenkins, all of whom can throw in the mid to upper 90's and have great stuff. 

So in a year in which I don't really think the Brewers were one good pitcher away from being a contender given how much better Cincy is, STL should be, and especially Washington, Atlanta and the Nationals, this just seems like a waste of money and more importantly a good pick, and now we lose all that money from the pool of money we get to pick players with. 



Maybe I'm just pessimistic.  Maybe we'll pick up right where we left off last year?  Maybe Lohse will have a great start and we'll be able to trade him to a team in need of a starting pitcher due to injury and we'll get prospects back. 


Oh well, if Rogers, Fiers and Peralta were doing their jobs, we wouldn't have felt the need to go get another starting pitcher, and one of the top 5 free agents coming into the off-season to begin with.

That's just it they're sketchy and pitching is going to probably be an achilles heel.  While they aren't just "one good pitcher away", I think there is some need to shore up what may be a gaping hole.  I don't think they will be battling for anything this year but I also don't want them to act like they're cashing it in on this season to save some bucks for next (few) seasons.  I go to games and I watch them, all I ask is they attempt to put a competitive product out there.  I'm glad they are trying to do that with KL.

That said, here's my prediction for this year...  78-84  :(


If you're predicting a 78-84 season, then why on EARTH would you be in favor of adding a guy when it takes away your 1st pick?

The 3 years and 33 million dollars is a HUGE bargain for him.  The new Collective Bargaining agreement wasn't meant to impact guys like Kyle Lohse who otherwise likely would have signed for 4 years and 60 million dollars in the first couple weeks of free agency. 

And I don't think they're one good pitcher away, I think they're one GREAT pitcher away(and Lohse statistically has been a great pitcher the last two years, 30 wins, 3.11 ERA....don't see that the next two, but for arguments sake) and then they're Peralta and Fiers being dependable away from potentially being a 90 win team. 


I'll wait and see though.  We can always trade Kyle Lohse to a team like the Dodgers for their draft pick if Greinke's injury lingers, and their other 9 starting pitchers get hurt....(though a lot of them are pretty fragile).

Scourge

Quote from: Houndhead on March 25, 2013, 01:10:54 PM
The Milwaukee Brewers have signed Jeff Suppan,Randy Wolf, I mean Kyle Lohse for 3 years, 33 million.


The Randy Wolf deal was a good deal.  He was a good pitcher for the most part the first two years and you almost ALWAYS have to pay for an extra year in free agency that you can assume a guy isn't going to live up to expectations.  Wolf was big for us in the 96 win season.

And I think Lohse is better than any of those guys at this point. 


I just wonder how long are we going to keep inappropriate term9 our farm system?  We traded Brett Lawrie for Marcum.  That right there will go down as Melvin's worst move ever.  We traded a lot to get Greinke, but I think in Segura we got back a future start.  So I really think we got Greinke for 1 1/2 years and gave up a pitcher who's definitely going to be solid in Odorizzi for two who COULD be in Pena and Hellweg and then the difference in Segura and Escobar which was worth it.

But I don't want to see Braun just play out his career on an aging team.  I'm half hoping for a great first half from a bunch of our best players, but an average record.  Put guys like Aram, Weeks(my favorite player, but still) maybe turn around and trade Lohse...Aoki...and then really spend in LA and try and rebuild the farm system because the worst thing for a baseball franchise is a loooong slow death and it just feels like that's where the Brewers are headed right now. 

Scourge

Quote from: Ghetto on March 25, 2013, 09:20:13 PM
Time will tell. He was great last year. If he can be great again...

Truth is that no one has any idea who will get injured, who will slump at the wrong time, etc. Suppan was a poor man's Glavine, pitching the edges with mediocre stuff. He stopped being able to hit the edges, and he was batting practice.

Please don't let Lohse be junk. That's a ton of cash, though only over three years.

I'm optimistic about this season. The Brewers will finish better than last year IMO. Not ready for a prediction quite yet though.

Well....I wouldn't call Suppan a poor mans Glavine, but it was IMPOSSIBLE to predict the cliff he was going to fall off of. 

I do have to say though, Glavine's change was historically good.  He didn't overpower you, but he had great control, a great pitching coach(like Suppan), GB pitcher(like Suppan) but he did have one great pitch.

Though I agree with you.  You can sign the perfect FA, you can make a great trade, everyone can agree it's a great trade and then it can go belly up.

Look at Roy Halladay?  Look at Johan Santana?  Now he wasn't quite Koufax, but he had a stretch that was historically great and the Mets haven't gotten anywhere NEAR their money's worth. 

Then look at CC Sabathia, Verlander...you never know.  Now Greinke has a bad elbow.  The guy all the baseball geeks said was the safest best on the FA market.  It's like throwing a dart...