Top D1 Teams 2009-2013

CLC FAN · October 17, 2013, 10:34:15 AM

So in the last 5 years, my rankings are

1. WI Rapids
2. Wausau West
3. Kaukauna
4. Merrill
5. Stoughton
6. Hudson
7. Pulaski
8. Milton
9. Bay Port
10. Arrowhead

CLC FAN · October 17, 2013, 10:43:06 AM

Of the 70 starters each team could have had in those 5 years,

Rapids had 63 sectional qualifiers, of those 41 were state qualifiers, of those 32 placed.
Wausau West had 66 sectional qualifiers, of those 30 were state qualifiers, of those 21 placed.
Kaukauna had 65 sectional qualifiers, of those 33 were state qualifiers, of those 13 placed.
Merrill had 55 sectional qualifiers, of those 17 were state qualifiers, of those 9 placed.
Stoughton had 57 sectional qualifiers, of those 19 were state qualifiers, of those 10 placed.
Hudson had 58 sectional qualifiers, of those 18 were state qualifiers, of those 8 placed.
Pulaski had 56 sectional qualifiers, of those 12 were state qualifiers, of those 5 placed.
Milton had 51 sectional qualifiers, of those 21 were state qualifiers, of those 12 placed.
Bay Port had 50 sectional qualifiers, of those 15 were state qualifiers, of those 7 placed.
Arrowhead had 56 sectional qualifiers, of those 29 were state qualifiers, of those 15 placed.

That may not be the most logical order to some of you, but it includes a factor for how good each sectional was. For instance, Pulaski and Bay Port had a lot less state qualifiers and placewinners than most other schools on that list. Remember, though, that they share a sectional with Rapids, so their kids who got knocked out at sectionals were counted as more valuable than kids who got knocked out at weaker sectionals.

Mustang Fan · October 17, 2013, 03:57:05 PM

Why don't you give this season a try and see how you shake things up. I'm very interested in seeing what you come up with.

Street Glide · October 17, 2013, 04:33:57 PM

I'm going with Merrill

Coach Lu · October 18, 2013, 07:57:12 AM

Holmen might be close on that list...

57 sectional qualifiers, 22 state qualifiers, 9 state place winners

neutral · October 18, 2013, 09:01:32 AM

You can grade Arrowhead down for some comparatively weaker sectionals - but 15 place winners is 3rd most on your list ... which I think should put them in the top 5. (Also consider other tournament accomplishments ... probably only behind Rapids.)

CLC FAN · October 18, 2013, 09:12:26 AM

Quote from: Coach Lu on October 18, 2013, 07:57:12 AM
Holmen might be close on that list...

57 sectional qualifiers, 22 state qualifiers, 9 state place winners

I have Holmen ranked 12th based on my formulas. Just behind Burlington but ahead of schools like West Allis Central, Hartford, and Mukwonago.

CLC FAN · October 18, 2013, 09:27:27 AM

Quote from: neutral on October 18, 2013, 09:01:32 AM
You can grade Arrowhead down for some comparatively weaker sectionals - but 15 place winners is 3rd most on your list ... which I think should put them in the top 5. (Also consider other tournament accomplishments ... probably only behind Rapids.)

Love the discussion! I'd like to start my 2-part reply by saying that placewinners are not the primary strength of a TEAM. These rankings are basically trying to state who the best dual teams of the last 5 years were. So 15 kids out of the 70 spots they had to fill placed at state, that is very high, but they had fewer sectional qualifiers than Rapids, Wausau West, Kaukauna, Stoughton, and Hudson. they were tied with Pulaski in that category. Does Arrowhead have a horribly tougher than average Regional that would explain this? I don't see it. So that means that while they had more placewinners than some of the top-5 teams, they also had more "holes" in their lineup than the top-5 teams did.

Secondly, if you agree with me that a kid who didn't place at Sectional G should be ranked a little lower than a kid who didn't place at Sectional B, then it is very easy to underestimate how much a difference that small change in ranking makes over the years. For my formulas, a kid who qualified but didn't place from Bay Port's sectional last year earned 5.2 points for his team last year (by comparison, a state champ, no matter what sectional they came from, earned 10.3 points). A sectional qualifer who didn't place at sectionals from Arrowhead's sectional earned 4.9 points. That's a very slight difference, but multiplied by all the kids over all the years, it adds up over time.

CLC FAN · October 18, 2013, 09:27:44 AM

Not that the points mean anything without super-detailed explainations of where they came from, but here's the list anyway:

Rapids - 533.4 points over 5 years
WW - 516.5
KK - 487.3
Merrill - 448.7
Sto - 437.3
Hudson - 433.2
Pulaski - 432.2
Milton - 430.5
Bay Port - 427.6
Arrowhead - 417.8

Just for you Coach Lu
Burlington - 412.6
Holmen - 408.9

neutral · October 18, 2013, 11:13:14 AM

CLC FAN -

"These rankings are basically trying to state who the best dual teams of the last 5 years were." ... was missing from the original premise.

However ...
Arrowhead advanced to the WIAA State Team Tournament in 2004

ankle pick · October 18, 2013, 11:43:47 AM

Not much of a discussion, is there? WI Rapids is king of the mat.

CLC FAN · October 18, 2013, 11:47:19 AM

neutral

I guess by looking at all individuals, not just the stars, I am looking at the TEAM. I didn't give any bump up for teams that made it to Team State or did well there. (And still at the top 3 we have Rapids, WW, and KK... hmmm). My problem with bumping teams up or down because they made it to Team State is that it dredges up the same sectional issue. Since Pulaski hasn't made it to Team State in the last 5 years, they can't be top-10 team? What if Pulaski happened to be the second best team in the state but because they share a sectional with Rapids, they never get to Team State? Should Franklin be in the top 10 because they made it to Team State 4 of the 5 years of the study? (Franklin, by the way, comes in 18th in my rankings).

I know by responding so much I may come off as being defensive. I don't mean to sound that way. I don't think I'm right and everyone else is wrong, I'm just stating my rankings and talking about where they came from. I'm hoping we have fun discussing them and maybe give props to some teams that don't otherwise get them. West Allis Central, with 1 state placewinner in the last 5 years, came out ranked 13th in my set-up. They sent 65 out of 70 starters through to sectionals, though.

So I guess that's what I'm trying to do. Strip away the hype of "Team X must be good because they always have state champs." A state champ per year does not a good dual team make. Instead, I took every starter for the past 5 years and gave them all a chance to earn between 0.5 and 10.3 points, depending on how well they did in the Regionals, Sectionals, and State tournament series.

Grant Peissig · October 18, 2013, 11:59:07 AM

Its great how CLC has developed sabremetrics for Wisconsin HS Wrestling. Reminds me of the Oakland A's and Moneyball. Definitely interesting, and seems to be accurate.

neutral · October 18, 2013, 01:13:41 PM

I agree that it's entirely possible that a team that doesn't make to state to be a top team ... behind an even better team.

Of course - in D1 ... getting to the semis or finals requires defeating other teams that make the tournament ... so it's a consideration.

And ... some teams match up differently with teams than others (because A beats B ... & B beats C ... doesn't mean A beats C).

So - to me - it's 2 different conversations ...
... best team
... program producing the most best individual wrestlers

The lists may have some commonalities - but, likely, also some differences.

I'd say your system is a better gauge of the second - but. I suppose, it's all just semantics.