Hello CLC Fan- Whitdale wins!

determined · February 14, 2015, 07:39:24 PM

Well well well. Whitdale wins the regional even without some of its starters! What was your prediction again?

CLC FAN · February 14, 2015, 08:19:27 PM

I was gonna start a thread on this, but unsurprisingly I was beaten to the punch. If you will recall (or search) I gave Whitdale only a 22% chance of winning their regional. I had Mukwonago as the favorite at 49%. Congrats to Whitdale and determined! If I recall correctly, determined had to point out some flaws in my system to get me up to 22% chance... I originally had them lower than that.

My vindication (as I stated it would be at the time) comes in the aggregate.

In all 3 Divisions:

100% of the 2 teams I gave a 90% chance or better won their regional.
86% of the 7 teams I gave an 80-89% chance won their regional.
88% of the 8 teams I gave a 70-79% chance won their regional.
60% of the 10 teams I gave a 60-69% chance won their regional.
60% of the 5 teams I gave a 50-59% chance won their regional.
50% of the 12 teams I gave a 40-49% chance won their regional.
36% of the 14 teams I gave a 30-39% chance won their regional.
17% of the 23 teams I gave a 20-29% chance won their regional.
17% of the 42 teams I gave a 10-19% chance won their regional.
1% of the 212 teams I gave a 0-9% chance won their regional.

I would say my system is pretty well calibrated... and that's why I put probabilities on my predictions.

Back to the topic, how does Whitdale match up with Pewaukee this coming Tuesday?

determined · February 14, 2015, 08:30:04 PM

Whitdale beat them before. Should do it again. Depth!

aarons23 · February 14, 2015, 08:33:06 PM

I'm going with Pewaukee.....Kurth is a master at getting his kids prepared this time of year.

M-Town Fan · February 14, 2015, 08:34:14 PM

Just curious, who was the team with the 1-9% chance of winning that won it? Also congrats to Whitdale on the victory, should be a good dual with Pewaukee coming up

CLC FAN · February 14, 2015, 09:01:54 PM

The 2 teams who pulled this feat were Arcadia and Amherst in D3. Congrats to them as well as Whitdale for defying the odds.

aggressive · February 14, 2015, 09:04:14 PM

Hey, Determined. How'd Whitdale get so deep this year? Maybe more teams should try the same method.

aspan43 · February 14, 2015, 11:09:52 PM

Quote from: determined on February 14, 2015, 08:30:04 PM
Whitdale beat them before. Should do it again. Depth!

So much depth they could make two competitive teams..... wait... what?

EIUwrestler1 · February 15, 2015, 07:57:59 AM

On behalf of the Cedarburg team, we apologize for messing up your numbers.

aspan43 · February 15, 2015, 08:59:49 AM

"I'm proud of the Bulldog program, and I don't want to say anything else," said Central coach Jon Nelson, whose team was denied a second consecutive trip to the team sectional final.

Apparently you can add coach Nelson to the list of people that don't think too highly of this coop.

aggressive · February 15, 2015, 09:50:29 AM

And its a long, long, long list

slewguy · February 15, 2015, 05:00:49 PM

THE FACTS:
Last year Greendale wrestled 9 underclassmen at the Whitnall regional. Whitnall weighed in 12 kids and 9 of them were underclassmen, add a few frosh to each team and recruit a few new kids and you have two competitive teams. Seems this is the case for most schools in their conferences and area. I really can't see why these two programs were allowed to or wanted to co-op this year. I certainly hope this is not the future of high school wrestling in our state. I would certainly hate to see coops like we have in gymnastics or hockey----- can you imagine if west Allis central and Hale co-oped. I certainly respect Coach nelson for his comments and he has done a great job at WA Central building a nice program. It is too bad his team was in the 7 team WIAA Regional, if another school had been assigned it may have changed the outcome.

CLC FAN · February 15, 2015, 05:45:02 PM

Quote from: EIUwrestler1 on February 15, 2015, 07:57:59 AM
On behalf of the Cedarburg team, we apologize for messing up your numbers.

That seemed like "Sorry we're not sorry!"

In point of fact, you caused the only loss in my 70-79% category, if you hadn't won, that category would have been 100% instead of 88% like it is. So thanks for making my numbers better. Oh, and congrats!

EIUwrestler1 · February 15, 2015, 05:55:11 PM

Anything to help, who does your system like Tuesday?

1Iota · February 16, 2015, 01:36:18 PM

Quote from: slewguy on February 15, 2015, 05:00:49 PM
THE FACTS:
Last year Greendale wrestled 9 underclassmen at the Whitnall regional. Whitnall weighed in 12 kids and 9 of them were underclassmen, add a few frosh to each team and recruit a few new kids and you have two competitive teams. Seems this is the case for most schools in their conferences and area. I really can't see why these two programs were allowed to or wanted to co-op this year. I certainly hope this is not the future of high school wrestling in our state. I would certainly hate to see coops like we have in gymnastics or hockey----- can you imagine if west Allis central and Hale co-oped. I certainly respect Coach nelson for his comments and he has done a great job at WA Central building a nice program. It is too bad his team was in the 7 team WIAA Regional, if another school had been assigned it may have changed the outcome.

& this is why I am out looking for some Pewaukee gear to wear on Tuesday evening. I would hate to see our sport go the route of sports that only survive on the back of co-ops. Too many coaches have proven that if you are willing to put in the effort you can build the numbers at your own program, especially at D-1 schools. I would hate to see Whitdale rewarded for taking the easy way out, especially when they clearly did not have to.