Expectations 2018-19? (Big Tens)

[leg turk]

So what do you guys think, where do you expect the Badgers to finish this coming year at the Big Ten Tournament?  I would think the usuals (Penn st, ohio st, iowa) will take the top 3 spots.  Maybe followed by Michigan?

Can we beat out the Rutgers, Minny, Nebraska's for the next tier?  I want to say Yes, but also want to stay realistic in Bono's first year.  I'm hoping for 2 healthy Wicks, a breakthrough rookie year in Big Ten competition for Hillger, and Konrath, and an overall jump in results at the other weights.

Fill the Barn!

[bigG]

I think we compete favorable with everyone after Michigan. Healthy doable goal to take 5th; maybe surprise Michigan for 4th.

[BuckyMatt]

I don't know what to expect in terms of Wins and Losses, I'm just most looking forward to seeing the Excitement and Hype and Marketing that the new regime will bring.  Win or Lose(for year 1 at least), if there is a noticeable difference in Energy around the program (which I already think there is), I will be pleased!

[Razor Ramon]

I'm looking forward to seeing if how 49 and 57 shake out when you look at guys like Martin, Bahr, Z Wick and others. Also, at 74. Christenson is similar to Ricky being that he may float around a top 15 ranking, at best, but is never clutch, nor will he get on the podium. Does Bono move forward with someone like Covaciu at 74, and even explore a Freshman at 84 if that are performing good and can beat Christenson.

[mkm13]

Zander will be going 157.  He should do well there, assuming he is fully healthy.  To be a top 5 big 10 team, we would likely need both Wick's to AA.  That would be great to see.

Based on how Martin performed last year at 149, I think that weight will be his, especially with a summer to grow into that weight.

Both Christenson and Covaciu need to get better on their feet against top guys, but I assume Christenson will be the guy again.  Reader should hopefully help them improve.

I will be curious to see where Hillger fits in.  Heavyweight really cleared out with graduation, but it is tough for a redshirt freshmen to step in at that weight and AA.

[wrastle63]

Zander will be going 157.  He should do well there, assuming he is fully healthy.  To be a top 5 big 10 team, we would likely need both Wick's to AA.  That would be great to see.

Based on how Martin performed last year at 149, I think that weight will be his, especially with a summer to grow into that weight.

Both Christenson and Covaciu need to get better on their feet against top guys, but I assume Christenson will be the guy again.  Reader should hopefully help them improve.

I will be curious to see where Hillger fits in.  Heavyweight really cleared out with graduation, but it is tough for a redshirt freshmen to step in at that weight and AA.

Agreed on 149. I feel like besides Evan we have nobody for finalists at the BIG Tourney. We just need to fill our holes of 125 and HWT from last year and our hole this year of 184.

[mkm13]

Transfers around the country are starting to be announced.  I wonder if everyone on the current roster will stay, or if we will get a transfer coming in.  I know there was mention of Connor Brown possibly following Bono.

A couple other good 125s announced they are transferring (Sean Russell and Zeke Moisey).  Not sure if either would consider UW.

[Harris]

Not trying to be a wet blanket right off the bat, but I think replicating our 6th place finish would be an extremely good outcome for us. We really wrestled well in that tournament and got a couple of crucial Med FF breaks (Crone & Ritter). We ended up behind the three teams leg turk mentioned, along with Michigan and Nebraska. We just nudged out Minnesota:

125: J. Jimenez DNP (-0.5)
133: J. Lantz DNP (0.5)
141: E. Stickley 6th (7.5)
149: C. Martin 9th (0.0)
157: A. Crone 3rd (15.5)
165: E. Wick 4th (13.5)
174: R. Christensen 7th (5.5)
184: R. Robertson 7th (7.0)
197: H. Ritter 3rd (16.5)
HWT: B. Stone DNP (2.5)

Of the 69.0 points we scored, we are graduating 23.0 of them, exactly one-third (though that doesn't include the 1 team point Johnny lost).

Here is how I see the Senior Replacements shaking out, vis-a-vis the Big Ten Tournament in 2018:

--Jimenez: At 125, Jimenez scored 0.5 points and lost 1.0 points, so it would be hard for his replacement to do worse. If it's Dentino or Rotondo, I not optimistic of many more points, but it can't really be worse than a net -0.5 points. If it's Connor Brown, I'd be more optimistic. Still, Brown lost to Luke Welch 10-5 at the NCAA tourney. Jimenez had lost to Welch at the Big Ten tourney 10-2. Brown will be better than Johnny was last year, but I'm not sure how big the gap is.
--Crone: I think Zander will be able to replace all of Crone's points, if not outperform them, slightly. Maybe I'm overly bullish on his prospects, but I wouldn't be surprised to see an NCAA podium trip for the lighter Wick.
--Robertson: I'm guessing it's Covaciu who fills in the slot left by Ricky, though it wouldn't surprise me if there's some shuffling of weights. I do not expect him to replace Ricky's 7 points/7th place Big Ten result. I could see a win or two, but not much more.

Then, there's the Reinforcements:

--Lantz: Assuming Konrath is the real deal, this is a major come up for the lineup. Konrath was 1st at the Michigan State Open last year, 3rd at the UNI Open, 7th at the Midlands, beating Korbin Myers (an NCAA 14-seed) along the way. We'd expect a big point jump here.
--Stone: Stone got a pin at the Big Tens. His 2.5 team points were more than Jimenez, Lantz, and Martin combined. To be fair, when you include Johnny's lost penalty point, they totaled zero. Still, I believe Hillger is going to be an improvement, but maybe just by a couple points this season.

I was actually surprised how much Hillger struggled early in the season last year, taking some losses to very lowly ranked wrestlers. As the year went along, he seemingly improved, winning all three of his 2018 tournaments, with 7 falls, 2 tech falls, and a (12-0) record in those three. Here are all seven of the tournaments he went to last season (with the results) in chronological order: Michigan State Open (2nd), Lindenwood Open (4th), UNI Open (2nd), Midlands (DNP), Flash Flanagan (1st), Willie Myers (1st), Don Parker (1st).

Lastly, here are the lineup Holdovers. These five finished 6th (Stickley), 9th (Martin) 4th (Wick), 7th (Christensen) and 3rd (Ritter). All five out-wrestled their seed. They represent 43 of the 69 total points the Badgers scored at the Big Ten tournament. Nearly two-thirds. The worry coming into the next year's tourney is that they all over-achieved to varying degrees, so we need substantial improvement just to hold these results.

So, when you net all that up, you get this:

125: Small Improvement (Brown) or Wash (Rest)
133: Big Improvement
141: Same Wrestler
149: Same Wrestler
157: Wash
165: Same Wrestler
174: Same Wrestler
184: Setback
197: Same Wrestler
285: Small Improvement

If you net out Konrath's gains and Covaciu's losses, you're left with Hillger's improvements over Stone's 2.5 points, plus any 125 improvements you get. Then, you just need the five returning wrestlers to hold their results, which is no small task given how well they wrestled last year at the Big Tens. All in all, I think we should be happy with 6th place.

I think you are missing one big factor - Bono and company.  I think the new coach will elevate everyone's game.  Throw your stats out the window and get ready for a new era 

[Jimmy]

Other schools wrestlers graduate also,which opens the door for higher placements .

[dad 2 5]

Other schools wrestlers graduate also,which opens the door for higher placements .

Just a glance in track and it looks like:
125 4 grad (1st)
133 3 (6th and 7th)
141 1
149 3 (1,2,8)
157 5 (3,4,7)
165 4 (1,4)
174 1 (3)
184 2 (7)
197 3 (4)
H    5 (1,2)