NOPIN Dual Meet Projections

[CLC FAN]

Updates have been made to several teams NOPIN scores, so if you have used the system to forecast outcomes for any of the following teams, you may want to see what the system says now.

Arcadia
Big Foot
Cedar Grove
Cornell/Gilman
Delavan Darien
Elkhart Lake
Ellsworth
Gillett/Suring
Hartford
Hudson
Kaukauna
Kenosha Indian Trail
Kewaunee
Lakeland
Lomira
Martin Luther
Mount Horeb
New Holstein
New London
North Fondy
Oostburg
Osseo-Fairchild
Pewaukee
Portage
Poynette
Random Lake
Shawano
St Lawrence Seminary
Stoughton
Stratford
Unity
Westfield Area
Winnebago Luth
Wisconsin Lutheran


Most of this was me being more diligent about keeping track of teams switching divisions.  Before, if a team was a first year team to Division 2, I treated them like a first year team overall - meaning none of their previous seasons in other divisions was used to create that team's NOPIN.  I've now done my best to look at every team's last 5 years, no matter which division they were in.

<Deep breath>  I also accounted for "upsets" at team state.  For instance, last year Fennimore pulled two "upsets" according to the system.  Before I was sticking with my end-of-season NOPIN scores based just on individual state, but I decided that since team state is more information about the comparative strength of teams, I may as well use it.  It was also good practice for what I'm planning to do during the season - bump up the NOPIN of teams that win in upsets and bump down the NOPIN of teams that lose in an upset.  In any event, I went back and made such adjustments based on any team state upsets over the last 5 years.  This caused a little bit of shifting among high level teams.  Ellsworth and Stratford are still rated as the best teams in D2 and D3, though the margin has changed somewhat.  In D1, Kaukauna has overtaken Stoughton as the top rated team.  This is due to Kaukauna's wins over Hudson and Stoughton at team state last year, which the system viewed as upsets. 

[CLC FAN]

Week 1 NOPIN "Upsets"

River Valley over Mineral Point
Sparta over Fennimore
Baldwin Woodville-New Richmond
Chippewa Falls over Menomonie
Appleton North over Kimberly
Sun Prairie over Janesville Craig
New Berlin West/Ike over South Milwaukee
Somerset over Osceola
Green Bay United over GB Preble
Dodgelad over Cambridge
Westosha Central over Union Grove
Mauston over Tomah
Kenosha Bradford over Ranodm Lake
Manawa over Rosholt
Menomonee Indian over Bonduel
Westby over Cashton
Kenosha St Joe over Cudahy/St Francis
Clinton over Parkview
Whitnall/Greendale over Tosa West-East
Berlin over Winneconne
Waunakee over DeForest
Bloomer/Colfax over Spooner
Beloit Memorial over Madison LaFollette

These teams have all had their NOPIN adjusted to reflect the new information.  Aside from these teams, all other NOPINs stayed the same after week 1.

[1Iota]

Week 1 NOPIN "Upsets"

River Valley over Mineral Point
Sparta over Fennimore
Baldwin Woodville-New Richmond
Chippewa Falls over Menomonie
Appleton North over Kimberly
Sun Prairie over Janesville Craig
New Berlin West/Ike over South Milwaukee
Somerset over Osceola
Green Bay United over GB Preble
Dodgelad over Cambridge
Westosha Central over Union Grove
Mauston over Tomah
Kenosha Bradford over Ranodm Lake
Manawa over Rosholt
Menomonee Indian over Bonduel
Westby over Cashton
Kenosha St Joe over Cudahy/St Francis
Clinton over Parkview
Whitnall/Greendale over Tosa West-East
Berlin over Winneconne
Burlington over Badger
Waunakee over DeForest
Bloomer/Colfax over Spooner
Beloit Memorial over Madison LaFollette

These teams have all had their NOPIN adjusted to reflect the new information.  Aside from these teams, all other NOPINs stayed the same after week 1.

Badger beat Burlington 40-26

[CLC FAN]

I was going off this result... didn't see the other one.  It looks like I got burned by the jv dual.  I would be mad, but I can't help being pumped that these two teams have enough jv to have a jv dual.  Thank you for the correction.

http://s200.trackwrestling.com/tw/seasons/DualMatches.jsp?TIM=1480986034580&twSessionId=gxrfurlbvlltpbw&dualId=52705076&teamId=69302107

[CLC FAN]

Badger beat Burlington 40-26

Well what do you know... NOPIN projected 38-26 Badger!

[bronco]

 May want to tweak MMGET a tad also. They were suppose to lose two out of three, but with three starters in street clothes, they squeaked one of those loses out 65-6, another NOPIN loss, they won 45-24 (couple more "regulars" sat out), and the third match they were only suppose to win by a few they won 67-6....they do not have a weak spot and are only going to get stronger. This all with two kids with 50+ wins combined last year watching this night, With three and four deep in EVERY weight class, this was not a concern. The next day, 9 of MMGET varsity reserves (kids who did not wrestle in this Quad) went to a varsity tournament in Black River Falls and placed 8th...ahead of 6 varsity teams. Several others wrestled in the Melrose jv tournament the same day.
  Thanks for all the work that you have put into this, really love playing around with it!

[CLC FAN]

Bronco, who was Melrose wrestling against for those upsets?

Nevermind.  Found it.  Tweaked it.  Congrats to MMGET for wins over Aquinas and Eau Claire Memorial.

[Lunatic Fringe]

Love it CLCfan!

74% is pretty impressive in my book.

Remember C's get Degree's!

[Mack]

CLC...would you consider running for office?

[CLC FAN]

Week 2 known NOPIN upsets

Freedom over Oconto Falls
Merrill over DC Everest
Ashwaubenon over Manitowoc Lincoln
Fond du Lac over Oshkosh North
Mineral Point over Random Lake
Waterloo over Deerfield
Waterford over Burlington
Kiel over New Holstein
Edgerton over Cambridge
Westby over Ithaca/Weston
Southern Door over Gillett/Suring
Blair-Taylor over Arcadia
Spooner over Superior
Iowa-Grant over Boyceville

[CLC FAN]

Only 12 "upsets" were tracked this week.  As always, let me know if you saw upsets that are not posted here as not everything is on trackwrestling.

Chetek-Weyerhauser over Spooner
Valders over Sheboygan Falls
Kettle Moraine over Waukesha South
Arrowhead over Mukwonago
Marshfield over Stevens Point
Cudahy/St Francis over Shoreland Lutheran
Racine Case over Kenosha Indian Trail
Cadott over Stanley-Boyd/OWT
Baldwin-Woodville over Saint Croix Central
Prescott over New Richmond
Denmark over Wrightstown
Osceola over Amery

Also remember to check the first post of this thread for stats on how NOPIN has been running throughout the year.

[CLC FAN]

Since the 18th, we've found 17 new "upsets" on trackwrestling.  Congrats to the following teams who surprised NOPIN:

Janesville Craig over Evansville/Albany
Brodhead/Juda over Waupun
Beaver Dam over Menomonie
East Troy over Rice Lake
Mondovi over Abbotsford Colby
Green Bay Preble over Marquette University
New Berlin West/Eisenhower over Port Washington
East Troy over Edgar
New Berlin West/Eisenhower over Merrill
Waukesha South over Merrill
Green Bay Preble over Menomonie
Kewaskum over Waukesha South
Menomonie over Merrill
East Troy over Marquette University
Rosholt over Edgar
Superior over Eau Claire Memorial
Mondovi over Whitehall

[CLC FAN]

At the end of December

NOPIN is...

32-24 in duals listing a 50-59% favorite  <57% accurate>
43-22 in duals listing a 60-69% favorite <66% accurate>
40-13 in duals listing a 70-79% favorite  <75% accurate>
64-15 in duals listing an 80-89% favorite  <81% accurate>
139-16 in duals listing a 90-99% favorite   <90% accurate>


318-90  overall record at predicting Wisconsin High School wrestling duals.  <78% accurate>

Quite a few takeaways from the first month of live NOPIN use.  One is that the system is fairly well calibrated, meaning that the percentages seem to be falling into place as far as confidence goes.  If team x is shown to have a 60% chance of beating team y, we can expect that prediction to be correct right around 60% of the time.  With 408 duals of data, it would take some pretty out there fluctuations to dramatically change the accuracy in any given category... something like going 20-0 in 50% duals or  10-10 in 90% duals.  Its also interesting (depressing) how disproportionate the distribution of duals is. 

The largest category by far for high school duals are ones in which NOPIN is 90% or more confident of who the winner will be.  Such duals account for 38% of all those found on trackwrestling.  The next largest category is duals in which NOPIN is 80% confident of who the winner will be.  Between the two categories, more than 57% of duals are those in which the winner is close to being a foregone conclusion.  Wisconsin High School Wrestling has a parity problem.

[DKelly28]

A few duals from the Dells Duals Classic on 12/10 that were upsets according to NOPIN:

Prairie du Chien/Wauzeka-Steuben 45, Fond du Lac 24.
Prairie du Chien/Wauzeka-Steuben 55, Whitnall/Greendale 24.
Prairie du Chien/Wauzeka-Steuben 49, Saint Croix Falls 27.

[CLC FAN]

22 upsets this past week plus the 3 that DKelly spotted at the Dells Duals.  Congrats to the following NOPIN "upset" winners.  NOPIN scores have been updated.

Muskego over Kettle Moraine
Waupun over Cudahy/St Francis
Osceola over Prescott
Prairie du Chien over Dodgeville
Watertown over West Bend West
Melrose Mindoro GET over New Lisbon
Luxemburg Casco over Coleman
Monroe over Waukesha South
Neenah over Hortonville
West De Pere over Menasha
DC Everest over Wausau West
New London over Seymour
Elkhart Lake over Brookfield Central
Evansville Albany over Janesville Craig
Oconomowoc over Badger
Kenosha Indian Trail over Franklin
Prairie du Chien over Fond du Lac
Prairie du Chien over Saint Croix Falls
Watertown over Waukesha South
Medford over Antigo
Eau Claire Memorial over River Falls
Prairie du Chien over Whitnall/Greendale
Monroe over Badger
Chetek Weyerhauser over Cumberland
Lancaster over River Valley