D1 Team Race

[CLC FAN]

In the Menomonee Falls regional, Germantown is way under rated.  They didnt lose a single starter and always have a full line up IMO.

Cedarburg appreciates the love tho. We reload some, but lost a lot of 100 win kids

Cedarburg returns 17.1 PPS (Points per returning starter)
Menomonee Falls and Germantown 13.1 PPS each.

This means that despite losing some great kids, Cedarburgs returns the highest quality of starters.  Menomonee Falls ended up in second (and winning the regional more often than Germantown) in my simulations because I expect them to have 14 wrestlers.  They've been full since at least 2011, while Germantown and Cedarburg are both on a 1-year streak of having 14 in the lineup. 

[slewguy]

I think Arrowhead has added some good wrestlers through transfers--

Germantown should be the team to beat in this regional--- they will need to find some bigger kids but this regional is wide open at 152, 160,170,182 and up

The middle weights 132,138,145 are stacked with many kids deserving of a state berth--- many good wrestlers will stay home in these weights

[wrestlingdad90]

Sauk Prairie also did not have some kids that will be in there line up this year go to Luther. Also boowrestle we will see what happens at sectionals.

[EIUwrestler1]

Arrowhead transfers? Care to elaborate Slewguy?

[ElectricGuy]

With the Sauk / Sparta talk - I updated this to include them.

Team /  Wins Graduated / Graduated accomplishments / Returning wins / Returning %
Kaukauna / Grad 251 wins / Grad - state champ, 3 state place winners / Returning 254 wins 50%
Rapids / Grad 132 wins / Grad - state champ, 2 state place winners / Returning 353 wins 73%
Stoughton / Grad 175 wins / Grad - 1 state place winner & 1 Qualifier / Returning 312 wins 64%
Hudson / Grad 118 wins / Grad - 1 state place winner & 1 Qualifier / Returning 304 wins 72%
Milton / Grad 228 wins / Grad - 1 state place winner & 2 Qualifiers / Returning 195 wins 46%
Burlington / Grad 191 wins / Grad - 1 state place winner & 1 Qualifier / Returning 220 wins 54%
Sauk / Grad 123 wins / Grad - 1 Qualifier / Returning 388 wins 76%
Sparta / Grad 175 wins / Grad - 2 state place winners & 2 Qualifiers / Returning 225 wins 56%

Still - Rapids / Hudson are probably favored without figuring in any large FR impact - IMO  

After a second look, I was surprised in what Sauk was returning,  they could be the sleeper among the teams.  

This might be the most parity WI wrestling has seen in D1 between it's top 7-8 teams that I could remember.

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Again looking a year out -  This is what each team has for wins with last years juniors (now seniors).  So early projected lost wins for a year from now.

Kaukauna had 68 Jr wins
Rapids had 250 Jr wins
Stoughton had 77 Jr wins
Hudson had 219 Jr wins
Milton had 60 Jr wins
Burlington had 139 Jr wins
Sauk had 166 Jr wins
Sparta had 11 Jr wins  (wow) They are young!

[Coach Lu]

After reading this, I was curious how Holmen stacked up in these conversations so I figured I would share with everyone as well:

Holmen / Grad 90 wins / Graduated 2 State Qualifiers / Returning 210 wins 66%

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Holmen had 54 Junior wins

Interesting side note:  156 wins of the returning 210 were from freshman.

[Hillbilly]

I'm not sure sabre metrics really work for high school wrestling.   Incoming freshmen and sophomores can earn a lot of wins at the lower weights.   Not sure how to measure those unknowns.   Usually coaching and how a program is run matters.  We see the same coaches and teams in sectional finals every year.  If we let people guess 16 teams for the 8 available spots many people would probably nail every state qualifier team.  I guess you'd get 8 guesses for d2 and d3 each. 

[bigG]

I'm just thrilled the Mississippi Valley teams are now a strong consideration for wrestling excellence. I'm thrilled with Sparta and Holmen as team coaching goes. Super dedicated coaches and tough kids, top to bottom. I'm a fan of the West Beaver Creekian I see working with those Sparta kids (Rickert). This is a big year for Coach Roddick, and I likes what I sees. Great guy.

[DarkKnight]

For your consideration, I would like to throw Hortonville in to the conversation

Only one graduation loss returns 222 of 251 wins
9 returning sectional qualifiers
4 returning state qualifiers

They add stud freshman Eric Barnett to their roster and there are grumblings around the valley that a very good 138lb wrestler has transferred there.
(I'm not naming names as I have no concrete evidence that this has happened)

Just my 2 cents.

Hortonville will compete, but it isn't that hard to have 9 sectional qualifiers in D1, seeing how at least half the wrestlers at regionals advance to sectionals.

Barnett will give them a good a start, but I hear he is only weighing in at about 103 lbs now. Depending on their transfer, they might be a team to give a team at the top some trouble.

[DarkKnight]

With Rapids at Their Regional, they may need a miracle to get out regionals on top. But seeing the quality of Hortonville's wrestlers, I think they will be a team worthy of a ranking.

[ElectricGuy]

For your consideration, I would like to throw Hortonville in to the conversation

Only one graduation loss returns 222 of 251 wins
9 returning sectional qualifiers
4 returning state qualifiers

They add stud freshman Eric Barnett to their roster and there are grumblings around the valley that a very good 138lb wrestler has transferred there.
(I'm not naming names as I have no concrete evidence that this has happened)

Just my 2 cents.

Hortonville will compete, but it isn't that hard to have 9 sectional qualifiers in D1, seeing how at least half the wrestlers at regionals advance to sectionals.

Barnett will give them a good a start, but I hear he is only weighing in at about 103 lbs now. Depending on their transfer, they might be a team to give a team at the top some trouble.

Hortonville is a deep team and I was surprised to see they were only loosing their 138lb,  but when you loose to Kaukauna 56-6 the year before, it maybe a bit dreamy to think they break into the top 10 D1 teams without a significant change. Is Hortonville doing any challenging dual competition other than conference? It doesn't appear that they did any last year.

On that note - what are some of the dual challenges that our top teams have this year?  I know many of the teams stay with the individual tourneys for the most part. Just curious

I know Stoughton has the same dual schedule as last year.   Which they tend to lean heavy on a strong dual schedule - example last year: They went 24-2 and out of the 24 wins 16 teams were ranked when they faced them.

Stoughton Dual Schedule 15/16:
Pieper Duals - Pool of 6 with Elkhorn and Evansville on the top of the list, now this year Fennimore has been added  - so possible 4 out of 6 teams will be ranked.
Dells Duals - Large field of 28 dual teams (Paired / Grouped into pools by rankings or general strength)  not sure who has been added for teams this year, neat event.
Zelinski Duals - 16 teams - all D1 -  5 ranked (prior week) teams participated

[boowrestle]

Pretty sure that Hortonville is back at the Pulaski duals this yr,5 Duals//// Pulaski,baraboo,Coleman,two rivers and freedom,should get some competition. :-)

[Armdrag]

I see Hortonville is also going to the Rick Lee duals in Bemidji, MN in early January......Kenyon-Wanamingo, Farmington, Perham, and Moorehead to name a few of the top teams their last year.

[Andersonman1234]

1. Kaukauna
2. Stoughton because opposite side of Hudson
3. Hudson
4.wisconsin Rapids
5. Sauk Prairie
6. Pewaukee
7. Cedarburg
8. Burlington because has Kaukauna first round team state.