January Updates for Projections / NOPIN

[CLC FAN]

Hey all,
Wanted to provide a link to the new projections for the team state series and the odds for teams in contention to win a state title.  I'll throw links to the Preseason ones at the bottom in case anyone wants to see how things have changed.  I'll also provide an update on how our buddy NOPIN is doing.

2018 Postseason Projections (January Update)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT36wPtXFvF0C-pe9kNTDnWpqyBnER4SuY3yNLj2nl1FHZXeKdB9k5exHIqGbr44UGUocjG2GPPqmBH/pubhtml


2018 Odds for Contending Teams (January Update)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSR-_cW_kCjxwDcS_YSkjR8o32GgP4vB33zYFMGr-m5-mJ0ppkFnlK0XSBHsylvCzGFED5nyYZB3_w1/pubhtml





Preseason Projections
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTPIGP5csVD_EitHHfKJ8N1fw_eGLxM1D3g-VpxmsARd4S_LwlO7v2U6_rTkMG8z4ZaypKQsuuMk8P3/pubhtml

Preseason Odds
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQLXGajdQb_ZPCkh8fV0ipL1i0kEPB5SmVjMJUhZoa7Dfuw371iDspS8UVZkiZTIb5-Qa1EgP22XkIR/pubhtml

[CLC FAN]

NOPIN performance so far:

Out of 797 duals, NOPIN has correctly picked the winner 76% of the time.


In duals where the favorite is given a 50-59% chance of winning NOPIN has correctly picked the winner 60% of the time
In duals where the favorite is given a 60-69% chance of winning NOPIN has correctly picked the winner 60% of the time
In duals where the favorite is given a 70-79% chance of winning NOPIN has correctly picked the winner 73% of the time
In duals where the favorite is given a 80-89% chance of winning NOPIN has correctly picked the winner 81% of the time
In duals where the favorite is given a 90-99% chance of winning NOPIN has correctly picked the winner 94% of the time


The following teams have been the biggest gainers since the start of the year - accumulating either lots of small upset wins or a couple really big ones.  The number you see is the gain in NOPIN points.  For context... a gain of 15 NOPIN points is enough to take a team who was an 83% underdog vs the average WI team to becoming a 79% favorite against an average WI team.

24.8   Pittsville D3
23   Edgerton D2
20.6   Prairie du Chien/W-S D2
18.1   Wisconsin Dells D2
18   Marinette D2
17.2   Mondovi D3
15.4   Neenah D1
14.9   Lancaster D3
14.8   Monroe D2
14.5   Racine Park D1
14.2   Independence/Gilmanton D3
13.2   Burlington D1
13.1   Denmark D2
12.5   Kenosha Bradford D1
11.9   Boyceville D3
11.8   Baraboo D1
10.5   Elkhart Lake/Howards Grove D2
10.3   De Pere D1
10.1   Somerset D2