By the Numbers Regional Evaluation

[CLC FAN]

Click the link for a pretty nifty (math nerd... I can say that) breakdown of how it all went down.  

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XuYT3AiWGj68N2JrVtLet2aJthTV25wLKc8ZjjwtRl8/pubhtml?gid=1242156119&single=true

The short version is...

13 of the 16 D1 Regional Champs were correctly projected.
11 of the 16 D2 Regional Champs were correctly projected.
12 of the 16 D3 Regional Champs were correctly projected.

The cool thing about putting enough projections out there... even the upsets were on track.  I gave Luxemburg-Casco a 95% chance to win their regional, they did not.  I gave Freedom the same 95% chance, they did not.  Taken as singular instances, that makes it look like I completely botched those projections.  Or...

I gave 29 teams a 90% or higher chance to win their regional and 27 of them did.  27/29 = 93%  So if 95% is the right category to put all the teams like L-C and Freedom... then mathematically some of them should get upset.  

I guess what I'm saying is I'm pretty happy with how these shook out.  I think a person would be hard-pressed to make money betting against these odds (theoretically of course).  Even the preseason ones look pretty well aligned.

[LKing]

36 of 48 is a 75 percent in my gradebook.  That's a D+ in my district.

[joeski]

I know us in Holmen are happy to be one of the three in D-1 to not follow your cybermetrics.

[CLC FAN]

Yes indeed - tip of the cap to Holmen for being the team with the lowest % chance given to win their regional in D1.  West Salem/Bangor claimed that honor in D2... special mention has to go to Two Rivers and Oconto Falls.  In D3, no regional winner had a lower % chance than Ladysmith - nice job Lumberjacks! 

As for LKing's comment... I don't even know what to say.

[imnofish]

36 of 48 is a 75 percent in my gradebook.  That's a D+ in my district.

Most places, that is smack dab in the middle of a C. 

[CLC FAN]

According to this website, the best nfl pick'em site this year had a success rate of 67%. 

http://nflpickwatch.com/

[Ghetto]

Taking CLC to Vegas baby!