My D1 Preseason Team Rankings

[boowrestle]

Both Greendale and Whitnall have separate fat test rosters listed on track,although there are a few kids that wrestled foe Greendale last yr that are now  listed on Whitnalls list.

[aggressive]

Greendale was tough and growing. Everyone was back. Why would they co-op?

[boowrestle]

From way it looks on trackwrestling they didnt actually co op,looks to me like a few must of school choiced to whitnall,but people keep refering to it as a co op which it doesnt actually look like.

[Ghetto]

Whitnall and Greendale are definitely co-oped. Greendale was the team pushing for it. They finished the season with nine kids and they didn't feel they had the numbers to sustain. As a parent of a potential Greendale wrestler, it disappoints me that their high school will not have their own program. Wrestling IMO will die in Greendale eventually.

They'll be tough as heck this year though.

[mike]

Whitnall and Greendale are definitely co-oped. Greendale was the team pushing for it. They finished the season with nine kids and they didn't feel they had the numbers to sustain. As a parent of a potential Greendale wrestler, it disappoints me that their high school will not have their own program. Wrestling IMO will die in Greendale eventually.

They'll be tough as heck this year though.

Yes as a wrestling person it is always sad when another school doesn't have a wrestling practice in it anymore. I agree that "whitdale"will have a heck of a year and that greendale wrestling is dead. 

[aggressive]

Recruiting for wrestling is difficult. Keeping kids out is difficult. The answer can't always be co-oping.

[aggressive]

This seems to be about artificially building a winner. Did Greendale ever try to co-op with Greenfield? Its a lot closer than Whitnall and has smaller numbers.

[aggressive]

In the Sectional, three teams tied last year for the most non-senior placewinners (1st through 4th) with four each.
The teams were: Whitnall, West Allis Central and Greendale.
So Whitdale will now have 8!

Also- Whitnall and Greendale EACH had more non-senior wrestlers in last year's conference lineups than any other Woodland team so Pewaukee is in big trouble too.

Also- Whitnall's JV squad was a monster last year. Check out what they did at the Bay Invitational in late January.

They EACH had more returners?

[buc65]

This seems to be about artificially building a winner. Did Greendale ever try to co-op with Greenfield? Its a lot closer than Whitnall and has smaller numbers.

From what I've heard Whitnall was the choice and Greenfield wasn't considered.  One of the top wrestlers from Greendale is related to a coach from Whitnall.  Like most co-ops they will probably have a season or two of success and then fade out and likely not have any wrestlers from Greendale any longer. 

[buc65]

In the Sectional, three teams tied last year for the most non-senior placewinners (1st through 4th) with four each.
The teams were: Whitnall, West Allis Central and Greendale.
So Whitdale will now have 8!

Also- Whitnall and Greendale EACH had more non-senior wrestlers in last year's conference lineups than any other Woodland team so Pewaukee is in big trouble too.

Also- Whitnall's JV squad was a monster last year. Check out what they did at the Bay Invitational in late January.

They EACH had more returners?

That's not accurate.

Non-Senior wrestlers from last year conference tournament:
Wauwatosa - 9
Greendale - 9
Whitnall - 8
Greenfield - 8
Pewaukee - 8

[CLC FAN]

I still have a problem with CLC Fan's assessment that the Whitnall/Greendale co-op has a 7% chance of winning its Regional (with Mukwonago at 63% and West Allis Central at 22%).
Whitdale is the team to watch in southeast Wisconsin- if not the team to beat!


Care to change your prediction?

So.  Two "Mea culpa"s and a "inappropriate term03?"

I did incorrectly combine Whitnall and Greendale.  I'm not even sure what method I used originally or if I missed the co-op completely, but what I've done now is take the better of each school's returning wrestler at each weight class as my returning starter for Whitdale.  That gives them 12 returning starters from last year's regional who scored a total of 186 points at regionals.  I also made a computational error regarding Mukwonago's points returning.  I had their 6 returning starters bringing back 105 regional points, when in reality they bring back 99 (or 98 - what do you do with a UC deduction?). 

My inappropriate term03 is - why does the WIAA list only 7 teams in this regional?  Division 1 is supposed to be a set-in-stone 128 teams, and it looks like the WIAA only has 127 teams assigned to D1 regionals?!?   From the Tournament Assignments PDF:  "Regional II West Allis Central:  Greenfield, Mukwonago, Muskego, Waterford, West Allis Central, West Allis Nathan Hale, Whitnall-Greendale" 

So, with the caveat that there should - will? - may? be another team besides the 7 listed in this regional, I ran the simulations again.  300 times.  The results:

Mukwonago   (52%) 
West Allis Central  (21%)
Whitdale   (17%)
Muskego  (5%)
Waterford (3%)
West Allis Hale (2%)
Greefield  (<1%)

[aggressive]

Another good question is why did the WIAA allow the co-op.

[determined]

So Mukwonago has 6 returners who scored 105 points and Whitdale has 12 returners for 186 points. Yet Mukwonago is a 52% favorite and Whitdale is at 17%? You must be taking something else into consideration. I know Mukwonago has a strong winning tradition and Whitnall and Greendale haven't won a Regional in a while, but I think you are going to be wanting to develope a new system after this year.

[CLC FAN]

We shall see.  

If you read the thread I do go into pretty great depth about how I get my predictions - which doesn't make them right, it just makes them pretty transparent.  Mukwonago is predicted to have 14 wrestlers in their lineup.  Since 2005, they have had 14 wrestlers in their lineup 9 out of 10 years - including each of the previous 5 years.  So I would predict Mukwonago to be full even if they graduated 14 seniors last year.  I do allow some variation in that - the amount of variation there has historically been for "Perpetually full" teams such as Mukwonago.  By the way, Mukwonago is one of only 12 D1 teams that have been full in each of the past 4 seasons: Bay Port, Holmen, Hudson, Janesville Craig, Kaukauna, Merrill, Menomonee Falls, Milton, Mukwonago, Stoughton, West Allis Central, and West Bend West.  So you could look at it as me rewarding their winning tradition - I am really just putting teams that are perpetually full (last 4 years at least) into a separate category because I can predict them with more accuracy than other schools.  In 4 years, if Whitdale has been full every season, they will be afforded the same courtesy.

I will say, Determined, that you seem to be glossing over the fact that even after taking the best that both programs have to offer, Mukwonago returns a higher quality average starter than Whitdale (admittedly, less quantity of returners, but higher quality).  The returning Mukwonago starters average 16.5 pts/starter returning.  Whitdale averages 15.5.

My get-out-of-jail-free card is of course that if I predict 10 separate teams to each have a 10% chance of winning their regional, mathematically I am not wrong or even surprised if one of them does.  If two or three do, I might majorly overhaul my system.  But 1 out of 10 "10% underdogs" coming through is exactly what is to be expected.  So in the event that Whitdale wins it's regional, you will have the immense satisfaction of proving that you knew which underdog would outperfrom the favorites - but I may remain unconvinced that they should have been the favorite all along.  

[determined]

In a few weeks you'll be calling them the favorite.