Team State NOPIN projections

CLC FAN · March 02, 2015, 02:21:05 PM

NOPIN projections for D1 Team State 2015

Quarters Semis Finals

Kaukauna over Burlington
37 - 24
81% Confidence

Hudson over Cedarburg Kaukauna over Hudson
37 - 25 40 - 22
79% Confidence 87% Confidence Kaukauna over WI Rapids
40 - 22
WI Rapids over Pewaukee WI Rapids over Stoughton 89% Confidence
32 - 29 31 - 31
52% Confidence 50% Confidence

Stoughton over Sauk Praire
39 - 22
87% Confidence

CLC FAN · March 02, 2015, 02:24:07 PM

NOPIN projections for D2 Team State 2015

Semis Finals

Ellsworth over WI Lutheran
35 - 26
72% Confidence
Actual: 37 - 27

Freedom over Ellsworth
37 - 24
Freedom over Sparta 81% Confidence
38 - 24 Actual: 34 - 15
82% Confidence
Actual: 40 - 27

CLC FAN · March 02, 2015, 02:25:51 PM

NOPIN projections for D3 Team State 2015

Semis Finals

Spring Valley over Random Lake
44 - 17
96% Confidence
Actual: 37 - 22

Coleman over Spring Valley
32 - 29
Coleman over Fennimore 52% Confidence
37 - 25 Actual: SVE 40 - 27
79% Confidence
Actual: 45 - 34

CLC FAN · March 02, 2015, 02:34:39 PM

NOPIN is a dual meet prediction system designed for Team State duals. It is a tweaked version of what Koy Kosek published in his WI Wrestling Digest in 2008. Going back to 2007 (the first year 3rd place wrestlebacks were allowed at Individual State... also known as the modern era of wrestling) NOPIN is

26-6 in predicting the winners in D1 Quarters
12-4 in D1 Semis
7-1 in D1 Finals

11-5 in D2 Semis
5-3 in D2 Finals

13-3 in D3 Semis
7-0-1 in D3 Finals

NOPIN's input variables are 1) The highest finish earned by each team's 14 regional starters. Did they take 4th at sectionals, not place at regionals, 1st at state? 2) The APS of the entire sectional that produced the team state qualifier. 3) The past results at team state of each program. Do they have a winning record at team state? Are they team state virgins? Have they ever won a dual at team state?

The percent confidences are based on past results. So in the past, when NOPIN projected a team to win 38-24, how frequently did that team win and how close were the scores to the actual result?

If you think NOPIN is crazy... call it out! Complete a state bracket for all 3 divisions and see if you can beat the computer!

Mack · March 02, 2015, 02:54:24 PM

CLC. You are very smart, but I think I might have the edge.

I put the teams through my computer and came up with this:

Everyone healthy + all heads are in the game + excited to be at state + haven't ticked the ref off lately = The winning team

Your formulas are okay, but I like to use a little more science.

Orca · March 03, 2015, 12:37:47 AM

I wish that they would add in farmer strength/mentality into the equation. I am sure that this would help several Wisconsin teams.

npope · March 03, 2015, 07:30:57 AM

Until the "pull the sword out of" the Ellsworth team I can't concede the D II title to anyone else. Like the "300: Rise of an Empire," I have the distinct impression that the team is greater than the sum of its parts; wrestling as a team generates some unexpected energy by that group. And yes, I know that looking at a straight head-to-head match up with one or two of the other D II teams puts Ellsworth on the wrong end of the poop stick, but geezzz, it just seems like Ellsworth rises to the occasion more often than not; very unpredictable in a dual setting.

I felt the same about Rapids during their "hey day." How they ever beat that River Falls team that had something like six individual finalists in their lineup is beyond me. That team was simply not to be denied.

Guess we'll see soon enough. Good luck to all of the teams going for a title here at the end.

swconvert · March 03, 2015, 11:45:12 AM

Ellsworth is strong because they understand difference bewteen wrestling as individuals and as a team in a Dual setting. It takes a group of kids that are unselfish for the greater good of the team.

CLC FAN · March 06, 2015, 03:24:01 PM

Bump

Since people are throwing polls around...

maggie · March 06, 2015, 07:10:31 PM

wow, model comes up huge for the Vikings

CLC FAN · March 06, 2015, 09:47:07 PM

Results for D1 Team State 2015

Quarters Semis Finals

Kaukauna over Burlington
Prediction: 37 - 24
Actual: 49 - 19

Hudson over Cedarburg Kaukauna over Hudson
Prediction: 37 - 25 Prediction: 40 - 22 UPDATED PREDICTION
Actual: 40 - 31 Actual: 41 - 26 Kaukauna over Stoughton
40 - 22
WI Rapids over Pewaukee WI Rapids over Stoughton Actual: 41 - 21
Prediction: 32 - 29 Prediction: 31 - 31 Rapids winning
Actual: 41 - 24 Actual: 33 - 36

Stoughton over Sauk Praire
Prediction: 39 - 22
Actual: 36 - 30

NOPIN is 5-1 so far.

billymurphy · March 06, 2015, 09:55:44 PM

Rapids made a big final push in the final four matches and just came up short against Stoughton.
Excellent predictions so far. I will be highly interested in how well Ellsworth does.
A team with no studs and no weak spots. Very unusual.
Ellsworth would have won a several more state titles had they had the dual meet
format back in the 80's.

CLC FAN · March 07, 2015, 12:29:51 PM

NOPIN is 9 - 1 right now.

tiger · March 07, 2015, 04:18:36 PM

Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Freedom? For what?

CLC FAN · March 07, 2015, 05:48:30 PM

NOPIN finishes this season 11-2. Congrats to all the competitors at Team State.