Predicted NCAA Finishes based on Seeds

[npope]

An enterprising soul over on the Mat.Com generated the order of team finishes based on seeds at the NCAA meet. If seeds hold, Badgers should end up in 7th place - tied with Oklahoma State.

Another thread going on this forum has to do with "fan satisfaction with an 8th place finish in the Big 10." Based on seeds in the Big 10, Bucky was predicted to finish 7th - they ended up finishing 8th. Some fans are lamenting that poor finish at the Big 10s and were comparing it to the success of football and basketball. So, let's deal with the expected placement (seventh) of the Badgers at the NCAA tourney. Will that placement (or thereabouts) render comparisons with the football and basketball results moot? You know, the football team didn't finish ranked in the top seven...and the basketball team might not, as well.

Not that I have a dog in this fight, but my point is that people who compare wrestling to those other sports are building their arguments on a flawed premise - it's a poor basis for comparison. That said, Bucky has yet to prove that he can wrestle to those seeds...although he might even do better than those seeds, as well.

Guess we'll see.

1 Missouri 90
2 Iowa 83
3 Ohio State 78.5
4 Cornell 66
5 Minnesota 65.5
6 Penn State 49.5
7 Oklahoma State 44.5
7 Wisconsin 44.5
9 Iowa State 42
10 Virginia Tech 41
11 Northwestern 40.5
12 Nebraska 37.5
13 Edinboro 35
14 Illinois 34
15 Michigan 32.5
16 Virginia 24.5
17 Pittsburgh 23
18 Old Dominion 22
19 North Carolina State 20
20 Arizona State 15.5
21 Lehigh 15
22 North Dakota State 12
22 Oregon State 12
24 Chattanooga 11.5
25 Northern Iowa 10
25 South Dakota State 10
27 Indiana 9
28 Wyoming 8.5
29 Kent State 8
29 Rutgers 8 31 Ohio 7
32 Princeton 6.5
33 American 5.5
33 Boise State 5.5
33 Drexel 5.5
33 Navy 5.5
37 Oklahoma 5
38 North Carolina 3.5
38 Penn 3.5
40 Bucknell 3
40 Hofstra 3
40 Rider 3
43 Appalachian State 2
43 Central Michigan 2
43 Duke 2
43 Purdue 2
43 Stanford 2
48 Army 1.5
48 Binghamton 1.5
48 Brown 1.5
48 Cleveland State 1.5
48 The Citadel 1.5
48 Utah Valley 1.5
48 West Virginia 1.5

[wrastle63]

I honestly feel that the Badgers will wrestle above those seeds! You look at RT I think he will be in the finals and motivated after that loss to Dardanes. Thielke will have it tough but has shown with a throw he can beat almost anyone( won't AA but could win a couple matches). IJ will take top 3 I think he will get his revenge on Moreno and finish that year strong after a BIG championship. Between Frank and Ricky we can get a couple of wins. I also view Timmy having a good chance to make a run to AA( if healthy). CM... I don't know what it is, but I just love his draw. I think for him to see some new faces besides Coon, McMullen, and Telford will be great for him and will outperform his seed!

[leg turk]

I would like to be optimistic about how they finish, but I have a hard time believing they finish better than 14th place.  I hope they prove me wrong, I would be pretty happy with 7th.

[npope]

I would like to be optimistic about how they finish, but I have a hard time believing they finish better than 14th place.  I hope they prove me wrong, I would be pretty happy with 7th.

I share your pessimism, but geezz, the seeds don't seem to be overly optimistic - they seem to be about what I might have expected...and if that means seventh place...

Medbery is a sleeper here in that on any given day he can beat the higher ranked guys at his weight; he could pull in significantly more points if he has his day in the sun. I wouldn't count on McCall being able to contribute much, especially in light of his injury. On his best day, he is a crap shoot...and I don't think we will see his "best day" at the NCAAs this year. I also think RT is going to have to have a great tournament to beat all of those guys in a row standing in his path to get to Dardanes again - they are all so equal.

So, who knows what we will end up with?

[vsmf2010]

For those of you who are unhappy with the state of the program and want a change I ask you this:

Would you be satisfied with a top 10 finish and finishing ahead of 10 of the teams below? If not what would it take for you to be satisfied that the program is heading in the right direction. If no result would make you satisfied then I ask you what other sport at the UW would a top 10 finish nationally not be considered a successful season? For point of reference there are 80 D1 wrestling teams, 59 D1 Hockey teams, 120 D1 football teams, and 337 D1 mens Bball teams so a top 10 finish in wrestling would be like a game away from the frozen 4 in hockey, top 15 in football, and making the NCAA tournament and winning a game in Bball (acutally top 42 would be top 12.5% but I am rounding). I did the math because this is a wrestling forum. Kidding...

Penn St
Ok St
Iowa St
VA Tech
Northwestern
Nebraska
Edinboro
Illinois
Michigan
Virginia
Pitt
Old Dom
NC St
AZ St
Lehigh

[wrastle63]

Pessimistic??? Who do you view as not acheiving at or very near their seed besides Timmy? I don't see anyone!

[npope]

Pessimistic??? Who do you view as not acheiving at or very near their seed besides Timmy? I don't see anyone!

I say pessimistic because 1) a seventh place finish, in light of the 14th place finish last year (I think), seems far beyond what I might normally expect for the Badgers; 2) despite Bucky's incredibly weak dual schedule this year, the team managed to pick up about four losses and 3) because as recently as last week the natives were ready to lynch BD for the "poor" finish at the Big Tens. The general tenor of the season has been one of under-achieving. Thus, an expectation of seventh place for the big tournament - the only one that BD says counts (and you know you can't trust what he says  ), seems out of line with what I might have expected.

[Huckfinn]

Timmy McCall wrestled well in his first two matches at Big Ten tournament.  I expect more of same if he is healthy.

I look at WI success differently than most.   As long as the team isn't a tire fire, as happened two seasons ago, I'm happy.    I'd be a little jollier with better performance from the non-stars, makes the dual meets better, but having 5 or 6 very good wrestlers to follow is just fine.   Most teams in B1G have fewer standouts.

Wrestling is mostly an individual sport.    I'm a fan of individual wrestlers throughout college wrestling.    I really care only a little whether Badgers finish 7th or 17th at NCAAs.   As long as they got some wrestlers making a good showing, I have no dark thoughts of Barry Davis.

[npope]

BTW, the most recent InterMat rankings (http://www.intermatwrestle.com/rankings/college/Team) (done after the Big Ten meet) has the Badgers ranked at #14 in the tournament power rankings. Pretty big difference from where the seeds say they might end up.

[wrastle63]

Pessimistic??? Who do you view as not acheiving at or very near their seed besides Timmy? I don't see anyone!

I say pessimistic because 1) a seventh place finish, in light of the 14th place finish last year (I think), seems far beyond what I might normally expect for the Badgers; 2) despite Bucky's incredibly weak dual schedule this year, the team managed to pick up about four losses and 3) because as recently as last week the natives were ready to lynch BD for the "poor" finish at the Big Tens. The general tenor of the season has been one of under-achieving. Thus, an expectation of seventh place for the big tournament - the only one that BD says counts (and you know you can't trust what he says  ), seems out of line with what I might have expected.

I agree with number 2, but I would say they have improved a lot of last year. Losses suck, but sometimes they can help motivate you even more(RT and CM). We had a couple of guys on the edge of AA status(and of course Graff) and this year I would say we have 3 locks for AA. So I don't see it as that far of a stretch to finish better. I think the pressure of BD is good because it shows people care about the program. Do I think we will finish above 7th? No. Do I think with the guys we have will will finish 7-12. YEA! I just don't see RT, IJ, and CM not being AA and I don't see between JT, FC, and TM that we at least win a couple of matches to give us some points. I know I am an optimist.... BUT GO BADGERS!!!!

[jaguarwrestler]

my software (me) says 12th, at the end of the day we have 3 studs... with the funny way they have of scoring this thing 3 wrestlers can get you in or near top 10... even though they may get waxed in a dual from teams they finish ahead of... it is all a little goofy.

[vsmf2010]

my software (me) says 12th, at the end of the day we have 3 studs... with the funny way they have of scoring this thing 3 wrestlers can get you in or near top 10... even though they may get waxed in a dual from teams they finish ahead of... it is all a little goofy.

Jag,
Did someone steal your TRS-80 and take over your account? That almost sounded like a positive comment.  

[jaguarwrestler]

my software (me) says 12th, at the end of the day we have 3 studs... with the funny way they have of scoring this thing 3 wrestlers can get you in or near top 10... even though they may get waxed in a dual from teams they finish ahead of... it is all a little goofy.

Jag,
Did someone steal your TRS-80 and take over your account? That almost sounded like a positive comment.  

sorry if another bottom half finish in the B1G didn't get me all juiced up.

[bigG]

I'm typing this on a Trash-80. Got sumfin' tah say 'bot it?!

[mdbriggs]

In some defense to the 8th place finish as being "not too bad" given where Wisconsin is at.

Of the 330 NCAA qualifers, I count only 5 Wisconsin high school wrestlers going to St Louis next week.  That being said, there is a high school over in Ohio that I believe has 4 D1 national qualifiers for the second straight year (with likely multiple AA each year) by themself.